Russia – Page 2 – Journeys of Heart and Mind

Blast from the past… 10

Dad had just bought Mum a battery-powered cat that ‘purred’ when you stroked it.

Notes from bygone years – Lots of past Septembers
Hint: Click on the thumbnails for larger images.

A year ago

I didn’t post to my blog in September 2022, so here’s an extract from my journal for 8th instead. We were on holiday in Wales along with Donna’s Mum, brother Paul and his wife Vanessa. It was an eventful day.

Queen Elizabeth II (Image from Wikimedia)

We drove into Tenby and unexpectedly bumped into our friends Simon and Carol! None of us had any idea we would be in Tenby that day, our friends live in Yorkshire!

At lunchtime I saw reports on my phone mentioning that the Queen’s doctors were concerned about her health. Later in the day her death was announced and it seemed very strange that Prince Charles was now King Charles III. I wrote in my journal:

[Elizabeth II] had such a long reign (the longest of any British Monarch) and she leaves King Charles III as the most aged new Monarch ever. She did her job extraordinarily well. It comes as something of a shock to be writing these words on this day in my journal. It’s a day that seemed always to be delayed and would never actually arrive – yet here it is.

Back in our holiday home in Llantissilio, we watched the news and caught up with some of the details of the day. There was also startling news from Ukraine with Russian forces abandoning a large region in Kherson and retreating in disorder in an even larger region near Kharkiv.

< Aug22 – Oct22 >

Two years ago

In September 2021 I wrote about a new song from a musician I know, Sarah Reynolds. The theme of the song is that when we seem to be facing defeat and are struggling just to hang on, hope may not be as far off as we imagine.

Take a look at the original post and listen to the song, ‘Wilderness’.

< Aug21 – Oct21>

Five years ago

In September 2018 we were on holiday with the family in Switzerland. I wrote a blog post about walking the bisses (irrigation streams). It was a fascinating day. Here’s a link to my post.

< Aug18 – Oct18 >

Ten years ago

In September 2013 I wrote about my project ‘Cruising the Gospel’.

The idea was to help and encourage people to read through the biblical books of Matthew, Mark, Luke and John, considering what we can learn about Jesus and about ourselves as we read. Anyone can follow along, reading and pondering small, manageable chunks along the way. (Read the original article)

< Aug13 – Oct13 >

Fifteen years ago

On 29th September 2008 I wrote to Elon Musk and SpaceX to congratulate them. Why? Because the previous day had seen them launch their Falcon I rocket successfully – after three consecutive failures! Read my blog post and message.

< Aug08 – Oct08 >

Twenty years ago

In September 2003 we visited my parents in Cirencester. Dad had just bought Mum a battery-powered cat that ‘purred’ when you stroked it. Mum loved having a cat, but Dad felt that at their age they shouldn’t have another one after the previous cat died. The pretend ‘cat’ was an amusing compensation, but I don’t think Mum was very convinced!

< Aug03 – Oct03 >

Twenty-five years ago

In September 1998 we were looking forward a few weeks to a relaxing holiday in Fetiye, Turkey. I’d been to Istanbul briefly on a school trip in December 1964, but I had never been to any other part of the country. A week on the Mediterranean coast sounded great and we hoped the weather would be kind.

< Aug98 – Oct98 >

Thirty years ago

In September 1993 I was working as the Microcomputing Manager at Long Ashton Research Station near Bristol. Part of my job involved networking PCs, here’s a message I sent asking for help. Click the image for a larger view.

Notice the ASCII art (text characters used to make larger ‘text’ or images, and the way a reply uses > characters to mark quoted text. All very primitive, all time consuming, and none of it necessary any more.

< Aug93 – Oct93 >

Thirty-five years ago

The 10^th September was Judy’s birthday, and in 1988 Debbie and Beth made her a birthday meal in the evening. It was quite a spread as you can see if you click on the thumbnail.

< Aug88 – Oct88 >

Forty years ago

In September 1983 we drove over to Cirencester on 17^th for Cindy and Paul’s wedding.

< Aug83 – Oct83 >

Forty-five years ago

The family records are blank in September 1978, the month that Debbie turned 3½. But on the world scene there were some significant events. Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat discussed peace and signed the Camp David Accords, and 122 rioters died in Tehran when the Shah’s troops opened fire.

< Aug78 – Oct78 >

Fifty years ago

In late 1973 John Jefferies & Son in Cirencester were preparing their Christmas hyacinth brochure, perhaps in September.

This would be issued later, mailed out to regular customers and available in their shop (now Vodafone) in the Market Place. The bulbs were grown in the dark in the basement of the Tower Street warehouse; the building still exists, converted into flats next to Minerva Court.

< Aug73 – Oct73 >

Fifty-five years ago

In September 1968 I was about to begin my third year as a student at the University of Bath. It was a sandwich course so required four years to allow for industrial placements.

< Aug68 – Oct68 >

Sixty years ago

In September 1963 I began my 5th year at Cirencester Grammar School. This was an important year for me and my school friends, with O level mock exams after Christmas and the real O levels to face in June.

< Aug63 – Sep63 >

Sixty-five years ago

In September 1958 I began my final year at Junior School. This would be the year of the important 11-plus exams that would decide whether we would go to the Grammar School in Victoria Road or to the Secondary Modern at Deerpark.

< Aug58 – Sep58 >

Seventy years ago

In September 1953 I’d been five for a month or so and I it was time to began my first ever school term. I went to Querns School, and was unhappy when my Mum left me on the first day. I cried later when the teacher told us that we would stop to eat elevenses. This was not a word I knew, and I heard it as ‘lemonses’. What I did know was that lemons are very sharp and I did not want to eat one!

The pupil’s entrance was along the little lane at the side of the school, shown in the photo. I remember walking up and down that lane very clearly indeed.

< Aug53 – Oct48 >

Seventy-five years ago

In September 1948 I was in my second month of life, and Mum and Dad celebrated their first wedding anniversary. It seems they didn’t waste a whole lot of time! I would have been getting my arms and eyes under better control by this time. Dad was busy with C&DMAC (a model aircraft club). His maternal grandmother’s second husband died on 19th, Dad always knew him as ‘Gramp’.

< Aug48 – Oct48 >

Eighty years ago

In September 1943 Dad shot a lot of starlings, apparently. He heard that he’d passed his School Certificate successfully, was active in the ATC, and had a busy social life.

< Aug43 – Oct43 >

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Blast from the past… 9

Judy had a job at Bristol University in the Biochemistry Department, while I was working at Long Ashton Research Station on pollination.

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Notes from bygone years – Augusts one after another
Hint: Click on the thumbnails for larger images.

A year ago

Ukraine was making exceptional progress against the Russian Army’s invasion in August 2022. I was encouraged to see this and wrote in my journal:

‘Ukraine is making serious inroads into the Russian held parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and Russian forces are redeploying from the Luhansk/Donetsk region, and I suspect they’re more vulnerable while moving than they are when dug in. Perhaps Ukraine can keep them shuttling back and forth between the regions, nibbling away at them all the time. But other reports suggest the Russian economy is in serious trouble too, unemployment is severe now and despite higher prices for oil and gas, the profits are down because of reduced sales.’

A year on, all that remains true, and the Russian economy, army, and politics continue in (probably terminal) decline.

Two years ago

On 5th August 2021 we were on holiday with the family and visited Cromford Mills where Richard Arkwright built the world’s first water-powered factory to manufacture cotton thread.

It was fascinating to see the buildings and surroundings and to think about the industrial revolution.

Five years ago

In August 2018, as in 2021 (above) we were on holiday with the family, this time in Switzerland. Some of us took a cable-car to Tracouet, 850 m above the little town of Nendaz. We walked back down, enjoying some beautiful views; it took around three hours.

Ten years ago

In August 2013 I wrote about the way in which all followers of Jesus are called to be leaders – but perhaps not in quite the way we usually think. (Read the original article)

Fifteen years ago

In August 2008 – Dan and Kerry were married and there was a big family party. Fifteen years on Dan and Kerry are going strong, and everyone is that much older. Some of those present on the day are no longer with us, sadly.

Twenty years ago

In August 2003 – We met in Eaton Ford and what we were shown has remained with me ever since. The Holy Spirit told us to ‘look out and look up’, and that has turned out to be the best possible advice and guidance in every situation.

Twenty-five years ago

In August 1998 – My daughter Beth married Paz (clearly August is a good month for weddings).

The ceremony was held at the register office in Bristol, everyone gathered in Quaker’s Friars and then made our way to the Registry Office together. After the official parts and signing the register, we all left for photos outside.

Then we all drove to Axbridge where the reception was held in a nearby quarry, a delightful setting (though unusual) and the weather was (mostly) kind. There were showers around, but there was also quite a bit of sunshine. Dad had a ‘head-umbrella’ which he enjoyed using when it rained, and eventually we all gave up and made our way to the village hall backup location.

Thirty years ago

In August 1993 we spent our family holiday in North Wales.

We walked over the canal bridge near Llangollen, took a ride on a steam train, travelled in a canal barge pulled by a horse, visited museums, gardens, a castle and a lot more. All the usual holiday things people do. (See a video clip)

Thirty-five years ago

In August 1988 we visited my parents in Cirencester. The photo shows Beth and her Grandpa, they’re chuckling about a giant snail Grandpa has in a glass tank. There was often something interesting to see on these visits!

Forty years ago

In August 1983 Debbie and Beth were enjoying the school holiday, Judy was enjoying a break from teaching Biology at Cotham Grammar School, and I was continuing research into pollen tube growth at Long Ashton Research Station. We probably went on holiday for a couple of weeks, most likely in North Wales.

Forty-five years ago

In August 1978 Debbie and Beth were both three; three years old in Debbie’s case, and Beth was just three months.

Fifty years ago

In August 1973 Judy and I had been married less than three years and were living in a flat in Belmont Road, Bristol. Judy had a job at Bristol University as a research assistant at the University Biochemistry Department in Woodland Road, while I was working at Long Ashton Research Station on apple and pear pollination.

Fifty-five years ago

In August 1968 I was a student at the University of Bath, studying for my first degree in Horticulture. The photo is a commercial glasshouse seen on one of our visits.

Sixty years ago

In August 1963 I had quite a surprise. The family were on holiday at Aberporth on Cardigan Bay and we’d gone to Pembroke for the day. We saw one of the last RAF Short Sunderland flying boats retired at Pembroke Dock. We also took a look at Pembroke Castle and imagine my shock when walking round the outside of one of the towers, who should I almost bump into but my physics teacher from school!

Sixty-five years ago

In August 1958 the US nuclear submarine, ‘Nautilus‘ became the first vessel to pass underneath the ice at the North Pole. Meanwhile it was my school holidays, between the fifth and sixth years at Querns School (a junior school in Querns Lane, Cirencester).

Seventy years ago

In August 1953 I’d just turned five and was learning that I’d be starting school in September. That seemed like a lifetime away so I probably gave it very little thought, but it was going to be a major point of change in my life.

Seventy-five years ago

In August 1948 I was in my first month of life. I don’t remember it of course! We were living with my grandparents in Victoria Road, Cirencester while Mum and Dad waited to reach the top of the waiting list for a newly built council house on the Beeches Estate.

Eighty years ago

In August 1943 Dad wrote in his diary for Saturday 7th, ‘Our American soldier billitee (sic) arrived though I didn’t see him’. I didn’t know my grandparents had hosted a USA serviceman until I read that diary entry just a moment ago!

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Meet two of my online friends

They are both unusual people, have rather special ways of looking at the world, and comment from opposite sides of the war in Ukraine.

Yaroslava (Yara) is Ukrainian, she lives in Kyiv with her son and her cat; she writes and photographs what she sees around her and posts news and thoughts. Konstantin is Russian, but left in 2022 and now lives in Uzbekistan; he gives 30-minute live YouTubes about life and events in Russia followed by open discussions online, and he runs a breakfast club for Ukrainians and Russians in Tashkent.

I’m exaggerating when I say they are my friends. I exchange messages with Yara occasionally and follow her on Twitter, but I’ve never had a reply from Konstantin. But to me they feel like friends. They are both unusual people, have rather special ways of looking at the world, and comment from opposite sides of the war in Ukraine. I think they would agree with one another on many things, both oppose the invasion and the war, and both feel compelled to communicate these things to the world.

I’d like to introduce you to them.

Yara

The two best places to look for Yara are on BuyMeACoffee and on Twitter. Click through and read some of her posts. Yara is artistic and expresses herself poetically, what comes through most clearly are her heart and her feelings in the moment. She writes about the war (of course) and she uses imagined dialogues quite often. On Twitter she sometimes tells us how she is feeling, shares photos (most of them very, very good) and makes delightful short videos as she walks around Kyiv. Yara is proud of her city, and rightly so.

Konstantin

Find Konstantin on YouTube (Inside Russia), I recommend his daily live videos. He thinks things through very thoroughly before starting a session, and usually he sets out his points carefully and convincingly. Sometimes his emotions show through a little of course, but logical thinking, business experience, and planning ahead are his strengths. He has a relaxed pace in his livestreams and this can make him seem slow to develop an argument, but it also make it easier to follow the underlying logic.

Summary

Yara and Konstantin are two very different people. What they have in common is that through no choice of their own they have been deeply affected by the war – as have their friends, families and neighbours.

Both have had their working lives interrupted, and both have embarked on new and perhaps unexpected projects. Both are worth listening to if you want to better understand this terrible conflict and how it’s disrupting life on both sides.

I’ll say no more about them, they will both speak for themselves.

Nova Khakovka

Under the appalling circumstances of the breach of the Nova Khakovka dam a few days ago, I can’t publish this post without mentioning it. But words fail me. There are none that fit. ‘Tragic’ barely scratches the surface. And if it was a deliberate act, ‘evil’ and ‘heinous’ are utterly inadequate.

Yara and Konstantin have both responded to the breach in their different ways and I’m sure they will mention it again as the details and the terrible after-effects become clearer. The world will not forget this event. If it was due to poor maintenance or improper management (this seems rather unlikely but is conceivable) then Russia must take responsibility because they invaded Ukraine, captured the dam, and were in control at the time of failure. If it was deliberately breached following a political or military order to do so, that is even worse and the world will not forgive those responsible. In time there will be clarity on the cause of the dam failure, currently there is a great deal of circumstantial evidence pointing to a deliberate act on the part of Russia.

War in Ukraine – War in Europe

On 24th February, 2022, Russian forces moved into Ukraine, despite Russia’s repeated assurances that they had no such intention. That moment represented a step change in Russian relations, not just with Ukraine, but with the rest of Europe and the entire world. The tanks, personnel carriers, and self-propelled howitzers rolled across the border from Russia and from Belarus, much as the German tanks had rolled across Eastern Poland and into the Soviet Union 80 years earlier.

Informed opinion among Western military and government thinkers was that Ukrainian forces would buckle, the government would fall within a few days, President Zelensky would be captured or would flee, and a new, puppet regime would be set up by the Russians. There would be almost no resistance, defeat would be swift and complete. Everyone was wrong-footed, Ukraine resisted, Zelensky stayed in Kyiv, and the Russian invasion stalled. And here we are ten months after the invasion, and Ukraine’s army has the upper hand having forced three or four major Russian retreats (it depends how you count them).

Map of Ukraine before the 2022 Russian invasion (From Wikimedia)

Why did Russia invade?

Logical, reasonable thinking always begins with unbiased observation; but there’s an inbuilt human tendency to instead begin with our own opinions which may or may not be biased, and then to look for things that will back those up. There are plenty of examples all around us: for example the tobacco industry in the 1970’s and 80’s had the opinion that smoking provided them with solid profits and was not harmful to health and looked for ways to argue against any evidence for harm. That’s just human nature.

And that’s exactly how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The Russian government began with assumed opinions about history and about NATO intending to harm Russia. Next, serious attempts to justify these positions were made: Russia was the origin of Ukraine which was therefore no more than a Russian region along with the Baltic states and some other parts of the old Soviet Union; NATO was not a defensive organisation but had expansive territorial ambitions, the West wanted to destroy Russia.

On the basis of these assumptions political arguments were made by Vladimir Putin and his supporters, that bringing Ukraine back into line would return territory that had always been Russian, would expose Ukraine’s military weakness, prevent NATO expansion, be welcomed by the majority of Ukrainian citizens, and be tacitly accepted by a weak-minded West. And on that basis, after building up forces along the Ukrainian borders with Russia and with Belarus, the ‘Special Military Operation’ began. Mr Putin’s miscalculations were exposed very quickly. Ukrainian citizens did not support Russia; the Ukrainian forces were much stronger than expected; the West including the EU and USA supported Ukraine in practical ways and applied sanctions; Sweden and Finland were alarmed and applied to join NATO.

Stages of the war

Despite repeated assurances that no invasion was planned, Russian forces crossed the border into Ukraine on 24th February 2022. As the tanks and support vehicles rolled towards Kyiv, paratroops were dropped to take the city’s Hostomel Airport. The plan was to capture the city quickly, arrest President Zelensky, install a puppet regime, and then mop up the remnants of the fleeing Ukrainian forces. But that didn’t work out well for the Russians.

The paratroops were defeated at the airport and the city of Kyiv did not fall. The armoured columns and their support vehicles and troops were badly mauled by the Ukrainians and were forced to retreat north across the border and east as far as Kharkiv, and something of a stalemate resulted in the north. In the south, Russian forces fanned out from Crimea and took the coastline of the Sea of Azov, capturing Kherson. Ukrainian forces were able to stop the Russian advance before the cities of Mykolaev and Zaporizhzhia. In the east, Russia expanded their hold on Luhansk and eastern Donetsk, and captured the city of Mariupol.

For some time there was a stalemate in terms of territory, with relentless Russian shelling of settlements along the line of control. During this period the Ukrainian forces grew stronger with aid and materiel from the West, particularly the USA but also the UK and other European and some non-European powers. At the same time Russia was weakened by a heavy toll on both troops and equipment.

As a result of astute leadership and good use of Western precision armaments, Ukraine became strong enough to push the Russians back, initially in the north, and then also in the south where Russian forces had to retreat from Kherson. This seems to be a development that is still ongoing as we approach the beginning of 2023. There are signs that Ukraine is growing stronger while Russia continues to grow weaker. It’s likely that we’ll see further Ukrainian military successes and Russian forces holding less and less territory. What is harder to predict is how the Russian government, armed forces, and population will react as these failures become more and more clear for all to see.

An analysis to consider

Here’s a video of Michael McFaul speaking at Stanford University. He is familiar with government figures including presidents Putin, Zelensky, and Biden; he understands their thinking; he presents a shrewd and well considered analysis of the situation – one that is well worth watching. I’m not going to write anything here in the way of conclusions; far better to settle back and listen to McFaul’s thoughts and ponder his arguments and conclusions for yourself. His address therefore forms the conclusion to my article.

The truth is the truth

Unexpected results are always disappointing and sometimes very harmful

Let’s talk about truth.

Truth is like the stars in the sky above, sometimes cloudy skies hide the stars from view, but we know they’re still there. And when the clouds move away we see them clearly again, they remain the same, the constellations are still recognisable. It’s possible to navigate by the stars, they are dependable and reliable.

Truth is reliable too; when we navigate according to the truth our decisions and choices will produce the expected results. If we are fed untruth, our choices will produce unexpected results. And unexpected results are always disappointing and sometimes very harmful – to us and to others.

In this world we are surrounded by a great deal of untruth. It puzzles me that so many people assume that misinformation will result in good choices. We see it everywhere – in politics, in business, in warfare, in daily life. Let’s look at a few examples:

Russia’s war in Ukraine – From the very beginning truth has been discarded. Russian leaders have deliberately ‘adjusted’ history, results of battles, and their motives. Perhaps they believe their own claims! So many decisions on goals, strategy and tactics have been based on untruth and the disastrous results are plain to see.
Brexit – From the very beginning truth has been discarded. British leaders have deliberately ‘adjusted’ history, results of policy changes, and their intentions. Perhaps they believe their own claims! So many decisions on goals, legal positions and rule changes have been based on untruth and the disastrous results are plain to see.
Anti-vaccination campaigns – From the very beginning truth has been discarded. Campaigners have deliberately ‘adjusted’ the science, results of trials, and their fears. Perhaps they believe their own claims! So many decisions on messages, responses to other views and serious dangers have been based on untruth and the disastrous results are plain to see.
Climate change denial – From the very beginning truth has been discarded. Deniers have deliberately ‘adjusted’ evidence, results of scientific study, and their arguments. Perhaps they believe their own claims! So many decisions on arguments, scientific reasoning and inferences have been based on untruth and the disastrous results are plain to see.

Do you see a pattern here? You may disagree with me strongly on any or all of my assertions above, but the plain fact remains that if you fail to see the truth about something, deliberately or not, and you base your actions on the flimsy foundations of error, lies, or misinformation (your own or from others), you will fail. Sooner or later bad choices will result in bad outcomes. They always do.

Claiming something to be true when it’s false will never, in the long term, work in your favour or in mine.

Truth matters. Let’s value it, search it out, base our choices on it, and benefit from the best outcomes available to us.