Tag: Ukraine

Cease fires and talks

Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.)

Forward look, ukraine – 6

< Previous | Index | Next >

Larger view
(Wikimedia)

March 2025

Representatives of the American president, Donald Trump, have been talking with both Russian and Ukrainian representatives in an attempt to end the war. Trump repeatedly claims, ‘This war would never have happened if I’d been president’, and further claimed that he’d be able to end it in 24 hours once he was in office. The first claim cannot be tested, but no evidence has been presented as to how the war might have been averted. And the second claim was, at best, wishful thinking; Trump has had a lot longer than 24 hours but there’s still no sign of the war ending any time soon.

What is being discussed between the USA and Russia and between the USA and Ukraine is still only partly clear, but the best we can hope for in the near-term is some kind of Black Sea ceasefire and a 30-day stoppage of attacks on energy systems. It’s hardly the kind of complete ceasefire (‘end the killing’) that Donald Trump promised us!

But when you look a little deeper there are issues that would be obvious to anyone who is a good negotiator. Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.) And Russia will wriggle and squirm endlessly to avoid an energy ceasefire. Putin wants to seem agreeable to the ceasefire to appease Trump, but he doesn’t want to actually sign on the dotted line because he thinks he’s winning the energy battle. (He’s not.) Nor are Trump’s offers to Putin entirely within his gift. No NATO countries involved? No Western troops in Ukraine? No more weapons or ammunition for Ukraine? Sorry Mr Trump, Europe will not necessarily do your bidding over this. French and British forces might be there sooner than you think. Macron is making announcements as I write; you cannot make a gift unless you’re holding it in your hand. (And you’re not holding it.)

What will happen next?

That is, of course, the big question. I can give my thoughts, but nothing is certain.

Let’s start with what we know.

  • If Putin is winning this war, he doing it in a very curious way. So far, his initial take-over bid was stopped and then substantially pushed back by Ukraine. He’s lost 900 000 troops, killed or seriously wounded. He’s lost the vast bulk of his armoured vehicles, tanks, trucks, ships in the Black Sea, artillery, radar equipment, anti aircraft missiles, and many aircraft and helicopters.
  • Energy infrastructure has been severely damaged in both countries, particularly electrical systems in Ukraine; and oil and gas production, transport, refining and storage facilities in Russia.
  • Militarily, Russia has been seriously weakened while Ukraine has become stronger. Ukraine develops and manufactures cruise missiles and drones that are flying further and further into Russian territory.
  • Ukraine is innovating rapidly, and faster than Russia. This is noticeable in the first person view (FPV) drone technology, but also in the longer distance technologies and in sea-drones.
  • Ukraine has focused on specific kinds of target to great effect, taking out much of Russia’s air defence, enabling a greater proportion of attacks to get through undetected.
  • There are clear signs that Ukraine is getting the upper hand along the lines of contact. For a long time, Russia has been making very slow, but continuous progress (though at very great cost). Recently there have been signs that Ukraine might get the upper hand, Russian progress has slowed almost everywhere, stalled in some places, and Ukraine has been able to take back some ground in several areas. This gadual reversal of Russian success will likely become faster as the summer proceeds.
  • The Russian economy is in a really poor state and slowly getting worse, not better. This too could well be a trend that will become a fatal crash within the next twelve months or so.

In terms of Trump’s efforts to curry favour with Russia and crush Ukraine – because that is how I interpret what is going on – there is an elephant in the room. It may not be a truly heavyweight elephant, but Europe (and I include the UK here, as well as other allies like Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea) has no wish to stop supporting Ukraine. Continued supply of weapons, ammunition, electricity and financial help from Europe and her friends may just be something Trump cannot influence very much. He can make offers and promises to Putin, but can he force the rest of us into line? I have no doubt he’ll try, but at the same time I very much doubt he’ll succeed.

In summary

The short term prospects for Ukraine are more pain, more suffering, and significant struggles to deal with both Russia (miltarily) and America (politically).

But I do believe the longer term prospects are much brighter. Ukraine can become an important part of Europe, a member of the EU, with a strong economy and strong armed forces, contributing culturally, economically and acting in concert with other states bordering Russia as a bulwark against Russian expansionism.

Slava Ukraini! Heroyam slava!

See also:

Here are just three of the many sources of information out there.

< Previous | Index | Next >

Useful? Interesting?

If you enjoyed this or found it useful, please like, comment, and share below. (If you don’t see those links, click the article’s title above the main photo and they will appear.) Send a link to friends who might enjoy the article or benefit from it – Thanks! My material is free to reuse (see conditions), but a coffee is always welcome and encourages me to write more often!

Trump, Vance and fruit

Did Jesus discuss politics with his followers? Most certainly he did! ‘Whose head is on this coin’, he asked. ‘Well then, pay Caesar his due, but make sure to pay the Almighty his due as well.’ And that’s just one example of many.

That meeting with Zelenskyy (Wikimedia)

Thinking out loud – 3

Oval Office
(Wikimedia)

There is a view out there that religion and politics shouldn’t be mixed. We don’t want to offend one another and politics is likely to be a topic that people feel strongly about – so let’s avoid unnecessary divisions.

I’m all in favour of unity, but I have two issues with that thinking.

The first issue is the word ‘religion’. Do I follow a religion? I sincerely hope not! I do my best to follow Jesus, he’s the best example of living well that I have. He taught his followers by example, by argument and by his loving heart. That’s not religion, it’s simply the practice of following the best example!

The second issue is the word ‘politics’. Following Jesus, if it means anything, means following him in every aspect of life. So unless we define politics as somehow not being an aspect of life, it follows that we should include it as just another part of life in which we can follow Jesus. Did Jesus discuss politics with his followers? Most certainly he did! ‘Whose head is on this coin’, he asked. ‘Well then, pay Caesar his due, but make sure to pay the Almighty his due as well.’ And that’s just one example of many.

So with those two points cleared up, what about Trump, Vance and fruit?

Trump and Vance

Whatever you think of the politics, and whatever you make of their words, I’d like you to look deeper than that – please consider their actions as well, and particularly consider the motives and intentions that led to the words and actions. We’ll come back to those in a moment, but first let’s look at fruit.

Fruit?

Yes. Fruit.

Paul wrote 2000 years ago about the fruit of the Spirit of Jesus working in the hearts and minds of people following Jesus. Here’s how that works. When something grows (a young plant, a young animal, a child) there is always some kind of fruit. An apple tree will always produce apples, more and more in maturity as it reaches full size. A young animal will develop attitudes to prey and predators that will enable it to survive and produce offspring. A child will develop attitudes and actions based on those of parents, siblings, teachers and so on.

The fruit of Jesus’ Spirit working in his followers is described by Paul in Galatians 5:22-25. It’s fruit, it develops as you grow. It ripens with maturity, it has fragrance and flavour. Here are Paul’s words:

The fruit of the Spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness and self-control. Against such things there is no law.

Back to Trump and Vance

Love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness, self-control. How much of those attributes have you noticed in the words and actions of the USA’s President and Vice-President?

If you want a specific example, think of the way they treated Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office recently.

Here are the opposites of the fruit in Paul’s list – hatred, gloom, impatience, unkindness, unfaithfulness, harshness, out-of-control. If the first list is the fruit of the Spirit of Christ, where does the opposite fruit come from?

See also:

Useful? Interesting?

If you enjoyed this or found it useful, please like, comment, and share below. (If you don’t see those links, click the article’s title above the main photo and they will appear.) Send a link to friends who might enjoy the article or benefit from it – Thanks! My material is free to reuse (see conditions), but a coffee is always welcome and encourages me to write more often!

Political turmoil in the USA

[A] wider war is possible. There’s a real possibility of a European conflict between Russia and the rest of Europe. There’s a chance of civil war between opposing groups within the Russian Federation.

Forward look, ukraine – 5

< Previous | Index | Next >

Larger view
(Wikimedia)

Feb 2025

So much has changed since our last Forward Look.

The world has seen political turmoil in the USA where President Trump has taken over from Biden. When you stick a spade into an ant’s nest and turn the soil over, there’s a period of frantic activity while the ants go into emergency mode, assess the damage, and begin to rescue whatever they can from the mayhem. That is the USA in February 2025.

And make no mistake, a frantic USA spells trouble for Ukraine, for the whole of Europe (I include the UK here), and perhaps for Russia and China as well. Predicting anything at this stage is about as useful as predicting the result of a horse race without knowing the length or nature of the course or the form of any of the horses.

But what I can say, is that wider war is possible. There’s a real danger of a European conflict between Russia and the rest of Europe. There’s a chance of civil war between opposing groups within the Russian Federation, and there are also possibilities of a second civil war in the USA and/or a third world war. I fervently hope that none of these things will happen, but events rarely take account of our hopes.

We’re going take a wider look at things here because so much has changed in such a short period of time.

First, let’s just catch up on the current state of the war between the invading Russians and the defending Ukrainians.

Russian and Ukrainian war efforts

Russia is finding it more and more difficult to continue the war. Russian casualties (dead and seriously wounded) are growing close to a million. The Russian economy is in an awful state, 40% of the state budget is being spent on the war. Inflation is rampant, interest rates are extremely high, many professional people have fled the country and Ukraine is systematically destroying Russian oil pipelines, distilleries, fuel storage installations and transport infrastructure, military air bases, radar systems, training facilities and military headquarters.

The much touted Russian ‘advance’ in Ukraine has all but stalled and, in some places, has reversed to retreat. The once feared ‘second most powerful army in the world’ has been fighting against a much smaller neighbour for three years and has failed to win. Hardly an impressive display of military might! Russia has lost most of its huge military power at sea, in the air, and on land. They continue to lose between 1000 and 2000 troops every single day. They have lost almost all their tanks and armed personnel carriers and are unable to replace them as fast as they are losing them.

Ukraine on the other hand has been getting better and better at defeating Russian attacks using a combination of high tech drones, great planning and anticipation, nimble action, good training, surprise, and constant technical innovation.

They continue to defend successfully against most incoming drones and missiles. As long as they continue to receive sufficient support, they will, I believe, continue to succeed and will eventually defeat Russia. In their favour is the fact that they and some of their European allies continue to ramp up the production of both weapons and ammunition to levels sufficient to defeat demoralised Russian forces – themselves facing more and more serious shortages of such materiel.

The political climate in February/March 2025

Now we have to pause. At the end of February the situation is changing daily, even hourly at times. Rather than try to make any predictions, I think it’s better to point you to some online resources that you can check daily or weekly to keep yourselves informed in such dynamic times.

I’ve mentioned both these sources previously, but here they are again.

  • Jake Broe – Jake posts a video every day or two. He’s a retired US Air Force pilot, so he knows what he’s talking about in military matters, but he is also an astute political observer and commentator. His videos are closely packed with the latest updates, and he provides links with the evidence needed to back up the things he says. There are no wild claims here, just good reporting, intelligent comment and useful material. Jake is well worth hearing and following.
  • Silicon Curtain – Jonathan Fink posts on Silicon Curtain as well as the shorter-form Silicon Bites. Here you’ll find great comment, opinion, and some penetrating, in-depth interviews with other key players and commentators. Every single video is well worth watching.

You will learn so much from these two excellent channels, but there’s a great deal more good material online. Try this YouTube search for recent material, but don’t believe everything you see and hear. The material turned up by the search may be true or false, checked or unchecked. Use your own judgement.

If you prefer the written form, use the same search in Google or another search engine. (Copy and paste this search or a similar one… war in ukraine 2025 latest news …into any search engine.)

See also:

< Previous | Index | Next >

Useful? Interesting?

If you enjoyed this or found it useful, please like, comment, and share below. (If you don’t see those links, click the article’s title above the main photo and they will appear.) Send a link to friends who might enjoy the article or benefit from it – Thanks! My material is free to reuse (see conditions), but a coffee is always welcome and encourages me to write more often!

Image of the day – 10

The UK has helped with military and civil aid, and has often led the way in extending the range of weapons supplied.

< Previous | Index | Next >

What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye.

I’m posting an image every day (or as often as I can). A photo, an image from the internet, a diagram or a map. Whatever takes my fancy.

England and Ukraine flags flying at Uphill

Uphill is a village just south of Weston-super-Mare in North Somerset. At the top of a prominent hill is a partially ruined church and on the tower is a flagpole. Currently there are two flags flying, the red cross on a white ground of England, and the Blue and yellow of Ukraine.

There are many Ukraine flags flying in England, on flagpoles in small cottage gardens, to those on official buildings. England (and indeed the rest of the United Kingdom) supports Ukraine’s valiant battle against conquest by her belligerant and bullying neighbour, Russia. The UK has helped with military and civil aid, and has often led the way in extending the range of weapons supplied, as well as the uses to which it may be put.

We have given Ukraine arms and ammunition, and also permission to use it as they wish.

Slava Ukraini!

Themed image collections

The links below will take you to the first post in each collection

Cirencester, Favourites, Irish holiday 2024, Roman villa

< Previous | Index | Next >

Useful? Interesting?

If you enjoyed this or found it useful, please like, comment, and share below. (If you don’t see those links, click the article’s title above the main photo and they will appear.) Send a link to friends who might enjoy the article or benefit from it – Thanks! My material is free to reuse (see conditions), but a coffee is always welcome and encourages me to write more often!

Complete clarity on Ukraine

The Russian official line is certain to be rejected and disregarded by most governments, by NATO, by the UN, and by people of goodwill

Just take a look at Russia’s current demands for peace with Ukraine, expressed by Dmitry Medvedev. I’m sure you’ll agree that he puts it rather clearly; does this seem reasonable and fair to you?

How Russia treated Mariupol (Wikimedia)

The text below is an extract from today’s ISW report on the war in Ukraine. These are the Russian conditions for peace. It’s the official line, published by Dmitry Medvedev, currently Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council. This is what he calls a ‘peace formula’, it does have the merit of leaving us in no doubt about what Russia wants.

Medvedev begins the “peace plan” by rhetorically stripping Ukraine of its sovereignty, referring to it as a “former” country and placing the name Ukraine in quotation marks. Medvedev laid out the points of his “peace formula”, which he sardonically described as “calm”, “realistic”, “humane” and “soft.”

The demands are:

  • Ukraine’s recognition of its military defeat
  • Complete and unconditional Ukrainian surrender
  • Full “demilitarization”
  • Recognition by the entire international community of Ukraine’s “Nazi character”
  • The “denazification” of Ukraine’s government
  • A United Nations (UN) statement stripping Ukraine of its status as a sovereign state under international law
  • A declaration that any successor states to Ukraine will be forbidden to join any military alliances without Russian consent
  • The resignation of all Ukrainian authorities and immediate provisional parliamentary elections
  • Ukrainian reparations to be paid to Russia
  • Official recognition by the interim parliament to be elected following the resignation of Ukraine’s current government that all Ukrainian territory is part of Russia
  • The adoption of a “reunification” act bringing Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation
  • The dissolution of the provisional parliament
  • UN acceptance of Ukraine’s “reunification” with Russia
Reformatted, extracted from the ISW report for 14th March 2024.

In a sense, this can be taken as a reply to the Pope’s recent statement about Ukraine ‘raising the white flag’. The Pope has since backtracked and clarified his statement, but Medvedev is most unlikely to backtrack his response.

The Russian official line is certain to be rejected and disregarded by most governments, by NATO, by the UN, and by people of goodwill throughout most of the globe. It is not acceptable as a starting point for negotiations of any kind, more a vain wish-list that very few can accept. Why, exactly, would Ukraine ‘recognise its military defeat’ when it is very clearly not defeated? And why does Medvedev think the entire world would ‘recognise’ that Ukraine has a ‘Nazi character’? Most of the world would be more likely to perceive such a character in the Russian government’s imperialist ambitions.

Dmitry Medvedev, and more to the point Vladimir Putin, seem to think they can get away with rewriting history, disregarding truth, invading an internationally recognised member state of the UN, breaking international law, and have the entire world let them get away with it. They are deluded. We will not and must not allow it.