Politics – Journeys of Heart and Mind

Much time has passed

Destroyed Russian tanks (Wikimedia)

Forward look, ukraine – 6

A great deal of time has passed since my last post in this series. For a good part of that period, Russia had made slow, steady, but very costly gains. Ukraine has restricted Russian progress to a slow, creeping level. However there have been other, very significant changes during 2026. If you’ve read this article you can jump direct to the list of useful links.

Chain of command

Russia has a very rigid chain of command, and at every level there are extreme pressures to report success rather than failure. Failure is punished, success brings reward or at least fends off punishment. So Putin orders an advance to capture town X, Russian generals command their officers to advance to X, junior officers command two or three soldiers to run to X with a Russian flag, if they fail to make it due to Ukrainian drone activity, two or three more are sent, eventually a photo of Russian soldiers flying a flag at X is returned.

The news of success (often exaggerated on the way) is passed back up the chain of command along with the photographic ‘evidence’, and the maps are changed to show X as captured. The Russian soldiers surrender or die and Putin is shown the ‘success’. And X remains for the time being in Ukrainian hands.

In Ukraine, things are done differently. Plans and objectives are decided by political and military leaders. The results of the planning are sent out in secret to the commanders on the ground. Both the commander and those below them are told what the objectives are but are free to adapt their actions based on what they find during the fight. They can take opportunities where they see them, use a different route or a different method if it’s more likely to succeed. Initiative is rewarded, they can adapt, while the Russian forces cannot.

Operation Vivaldi

Vivaldi has been a successful operation by Ukrainian forces, carefully planned, novel in approach, kept secret before it began, and not announced until objectives had already been reached at every stage. It’s still ongoing but only the military planners know what the next objectives and methods may be. This approach caught Russia totally unprepared and has already resulted in Russian forces retreating and hundreds of square kilometres being recovered by Ukraine.

Ukraine has lost men and equipment too, but on a far smaller scale. Their stubborn resistance along 1200 km of front line has prevented Russian forces from breaking through and although the forward momentum has been in favour of Russian forces it has also been momentum of a very slow, creeping kind. Ukraine has acted entirely within Geneva Convention rules.

On the missile and drone warfare there is a similar difference in approach between the two sides. Russia has targeted residential areas of towns and cities, even hospitals, schools, shopping centres and cultural treasures along with critical infrastructure, especially electricity power stations and local distribution transformers. Again, most of these targets are illegal under international laws and agreements, Russia being a signatory to many of them.

Ukraine has focused on military targets – command and control centres, airfields, naval dockyards and ships, army training camps, troop concentrations, oil production and storage facilities, arms factories, ammunition storage facilities, radar equipment, bridges, railways and roads feeding military traffic to the areas of conflict.

The effects so far

There have been small, creeping movements along the frontline, mostly in Russia’s favour, although the trend has been slower and slower over the past months and now Ukraine is beginning to make small advances as well from time to time, usually by means of well-planned and well-executed actions when good opportunities arise. Vivaldi has greatly increased the pace of advance.

Economic considerations

The Russian economy is showing serious and dangerous strain. The rouble has lost a lot of value against western currencies. Interest rates are high as the central bank has used this as a tool to restrict inflation; but the increased borrowing costs have killed industrial investment. Unemployment is very low and Putin has claimed that as a great success, though the reason for it is that military casualties are excessively high and huge numbers have fled the country.

Strategy and outcomes

During Summer and autumn of 2026 Ukraine has developed new military equipment including more advanced drones and missiles, the FP9 missile carries a moderately powerful warhead so is very hard to shoot down once it’s been launched, it can hit targets up to 300 km or so and hits targets within a minute or two of launch. Using these home-developed tools Ukraine has systematically degraded Russian air defences, fuel supplies, ammunition dumps, communications. All of this has made it easier for Ukraine to strike Russian targets more and more frequently and accurately.

Military production

Russia is still producing new drones, missiles, ammunition, aircraft, tanks and other armoured vehicles, but at a slower rate than the losses inflicted by Ukraine. Stocks of all these essential items have therefore dwindled away and now appear to be in short supply.

Ukraine has also ramped up production of military hardware and consumables and is now in a position to continue fighting even if supplies from the West diminish. Furthermore, Ukraine has continued to develop improved versions of missiles and drones of all kinds.

Innovation

Russia has made progress with drone development, and has makes use of FPV drones controlled via optic cable since this cannot be blocked by radio jamming.

However, Ukrainian production and use of advanced drones outstrips Russian developments. They’re using AI drones that can navigate accurately by machine vision or terrain following so are not dependent on constant control by a human operator. Recently, Ukrainian sea drones have been fitted with both machine guns and ground to air missiles and have downed helicopters sent to destroy them. This is a major new technological achievement.

One surprise in Operation Vivaldi was that Ukraine used heavy cargo drones to transport amphibious drones to areas behind the Russian forces, these were basically tracked land drones modified to be able to cross swamps, rivers and ditches. They came up unexpectedly behind Russian forces and attacked them from the rear enabling Ukrainian forces to take positions more quickly and easily. This was so effective that Ukraine could bring armoured vehicles and tanks into action. In this way Ukraine crossed the Zherebets River and expanded their control into areas considered safe by Russian forces.

And the future?

The balance has been shifting in Ukraine’s favour in so many ways, and the best predictions suggest the Russian economy will collapse, most likely slowly, then suddenly. It’s impossible to know precisely when ‘suddenly’ will come, but it will be devastating when it does and may now be very close. Economic collapse will likely mean military defeat and political upheavals as well.

Russian strategy

Russia continues its effort to kill civilians and destroy civilian infastrucure. They are using glide bombs, jet drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles, all hard to destroy or stop. Ukraine is adapting, but civilian losses have increased recently in the face of attacks on high rise apartments, shopping centres, railways, schools and hospitals. All such attacks are illegal in international law of course, but Russia seems not to care. The world must make them care, and surely will do.

In conclusion

Russia thought they could topple the Ukrainian Government within perhaps 10 days. But they failed. It will be a terribly hard winter in both countries, but Russia should remember that it lies further north than Ukraine. Kyiv may face temperatures as low as -20 C, but Moscow could well be -25 to -27 C. If I had to make a prediction it would be that Ukraine will win this war eventually but it’s impossible to judge how much longer it will take. Putin will fall from power, he may be murdered by his own people, military, angry oligarchs, or a popular uprising. If he survives he might end up at the International Court at The Hague. It will be a deservedly ignominious end. Ukraine will rebuild and become prosperous, regaining her currently lost territories in the east. Russia fall apart into a variety of constituent nations. It will be hard to predict it could be as soon as tomorrow or it might take a couple more years.

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Mentioned in News

It’s a great place to stay up-to-date on all sorts of important topics. Furthermore, you need a university degree as the bare minimum if you want to write articles for the website. This results in a high standard of writing.

The Conversation

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On the web – 2

I’ve started reading The Conversation, not every item but whenever I spot something that catches my attention. This happened back on 8th April when I added a news item based on a post from ‘The Conversation’. This time I’d like to write about the website itself, not just an item that I read and liked.

The web as intended

I mentioned this in the news item. Tim Berners-Lee, the creator of the World-Wide-Web, made his original intentions very clear in his recent book, ‘This is for Everyone’. The web, especially recently, has significantly tampered with and damaged what he had hoped to create. If you read the book you’ll see what he means and how he intends to fix things and is already working to do so.

The Conversation is a website that already conforms rather well to Berners-Lees’s intentions. For one thing it’s completely free to use, like Wikipedia, the Internet Archive, and my own site which you’re reading now. Everything here is free to read, use, copy, and re-use. Check my copyright page for more details.

‘The Conversation’ presents world news and updates and articles on research and development; so it’s a great place to stay up-to-date on all sorts of important topics. Furthermore, you need a university degree as the bare minimum if you want to write articles for the website. This results in a high standard of writing and articles you should be able to trust. There are different versions for different nations and regions, every Conversation page has a drop down list near the top where you can select the version you want to view.

That’s all I wanted to say about ‘The Conversation’. If you subscribe for notifications and read whatever grabs your attention, you’ll stand a good chance of being better informed than ever before and enjoying the process as well. Happy reading!

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https://jhm.scilla.org.uk/2026/04/01/current-roundup

Another great post

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A bit of a hero

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Image of the day – 187

What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every few days.

This is Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada and a bit of a hero of mine. Why? Because he stood firm in the face of some dreadful threats and actions from one Donald Trump (not a hero and unlikely to get his image on Journeys of Heart and Mind).

Mark Carney spoke eloquently and with composure and dignity when he addressed the Davos meeting on 20th January. During his speech he mentioned Václav Havel’s essay, The power of the powerless, about the notice in the greengrocer’s shop window. Hear the story in the video below, starting at just 49 seconds in.

This story inspired me greatly, as did Carney’s entire speech. If you have not yet heard it – I encourage you to watch the whole thing at your earliest opportunity! I wondered what I could do as an individual to ‘take the sign out of my window. Very little it seems… unless…

I began to see that there is something I can do, I could try to start a movement and here’s how that would work.

From now on, and until Donald Trump leaves the White House and the USA becomes a rational actor again, I’m taking down my sign. I’m going to make a strong effort to avoid buying goods or services from the USA.

I’m only one person, so my effort will have very little effect. If everyone in the UK, Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and so forth took down their signs in the same way it would have a huge impact, a major, staggering effect. In a sense this has already started, US tourism from Britain and around the world has been collapsing. Flights to the USA are down, beaches in Florida are emptying, people are choosing other destinations as safer and less prone to border difficulties and excessive checks on passports and visas.

Hint: Go to the Google search prompt and type in ‘US tourism trends’. If you’re a US citizen the results make grim reading, with phrases like ‘sharp decline in international arrivals’.

Some people will follow me in a shopping ban, some will not, and the overall effect will be somewhere between negligible and catastrophic. Working together we will have an effect on the profitability of American businesses and the knock-on effects will reach citizens, politicians, decision makers and more.

This won’t affect my secondhand purchases, if I want a phone replacement I’ll choose a locally reconditioned one. Manufacturer’s profits come mainly from the sales of new items, not from second or third owners.

So I’m putting the USA on notice, I’m taking down my sign. Who is with me on this? Take down your sign too, either in this way or in some alternative way of your own devising. I’m not going to take the lies and tantrums any longer, I’m responding to the bully-boy tactics in my own way.

I will do my little bit quietly, peacefully, from now until I believe I can support the USA again as a friend and ally and a nation that is governed well and acts reasonably towards its friends and neighbours.

I’ll be making an exception wherever possible for US states like California, and others with a Democrat Governer or local Democrat state policies.

So no ban on California companies, but I will not buy goods or services from Texas at any price. Hard luck Starlink!

For this to work I need you, my readers to do two simple things:

Stop buying US goods and services, if possible pay special attention to anything from Republican states.
Spread the word

Let’s make this viral – send links to this article to friends and family, share the QR code, print copies off and leave them in public places, deliver them to your neighbours. Send copies to local (and national) newspapers. Just how far it can go? But do be responsible, don’t create unnecessary litter, don’t waste paper, target people wisely, politely and carefully.

And of course you don’t have to be British to take action, to all Europeans, Canadians, and other concerned individuals around the world, you are free to join in. It’s a case of the more the merrier. A lot of tiny actions can build up to something highly significant and impossible to ignore. Coffee shops don’t succeed by selling at high prices, they depend on getting large numbers of customers through the door. So come in, smell the coffee, and make a small but important difference. Just don’t buy your coffee from (or in) the USA!

I don’t hate US citizens, I have friends and relatives there. But nor do I like political pressure from the USA. It’s time to push back.

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Enough is enough

A low point in Greenland

A low point in Greenland

The photo shows a valley in Greenland, a valley is a low point, but Trump’s arrogant rudeness was another kind of low-point, and his falsifications were low-points as well.

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Image of the day – 186

What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every few days.

A huge rumpus has developed over Mr Trump’s fixation on owning Greenland. I’ve never been to Greenland, but I’ve seen many photos and read accounts by people who have visited or who live there. It’s a large island with hospitable inhabitants but a very inhospitable climate, mostly covered by an ice cap up to 3 km (2 miles) deep, and peopled by a rich mix of the hardy Inuit natives of the land and Danes. The photo shows a valley in Greenland, a valley is a low point, but Trump’s arrogant rudeness was another kind of low-point, and his falsifications were low-points as well.

The rumpus continued until Trump backed down, but in his Davos address and press conference Trump said many things that did not ring true in my ears and mind so I wanted to see a fact-check.

What follows was not written by me. It’s Chat GPT’s response to my request for the AI to read the transcript, fact-check the claims, and draft a 1000-word essay for me. I planned to edit it into a finished article to publish here, but I decided instead to publish the draft as is.

Read it below: ChatGPT as a guest author on my blog.

Here’s my request to ChatGPT:

Please examine President Trump’s Davos press conference, fact check his claims and draft a 1000 word essay based on your findings.

Feel free to put this prompt into an AI of your choosing, the output will vary between AIs and may change over time as well.

Fact-Checking President Trump’s Davos Speech and Press Conference

Introduction

In January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a highly anticipated speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, and later faced questions at a press conference. His address was notable not only for its bold proclamation of U.S. ambitions — especially regarding Greenland — but also for a wide array of controversial and, in many cases, misleading or incorrect claims about international relations, economics, and domestic policy. This essay examines the context of the speech, fact-checks key assertions, and evaluates the broader implications of the rhetoric deployed.

A Controversial Theme: Greenland and U.S. Expansionism

Perhaps the most eye-catching aspect of Trump’s Davos address was his discussion of Greenland, the vast Arctic island that is an autonomous territory of Denmark. Trump reiterated his desire for the United States to acquire Greenland, labeling it “critical” to U.S. and NATO security. He also — for the first time in this campaign — publicly pledged not to use military force to obtain it. – Time

However, this position was controversial for multiple reasons:

International Law and Sovereignty: Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark; any transfer of sovereignty must be voluntary and negotiated. Danish leaders have consistently rejected selling or ceding control of the territory. – AP
Misrepresentation of Defense History: Trump implied that the U.S. “gave Greenland back” after World War II. In reality, the U.S. military presence in Greenland was based on agreements that affirmed Denmark’s sovereignty over the island while allowing the U.S. strategic access — but Greenland was not “returned” in the sense of ending U.S. ownership, because it was never wholly U.S. territory. – MediaITE
Strategic Importance vs. Imperialism: Trump’s framing of Greenland as a necessary bulwark against global threats was criticized as overly nationalistic and potentially destabilizing for NATO unity. European leaders stressed sovereignty and peaceful cooperation. – Guardian

Although Trump’s explicit rejection of military force was welcomed by markets and some commentators, the overall push was seen as a diplomatic provocation rather than constructive strategy. – Time

Misleading and False Claims

Beyond Greenland, Trump’s remarks included a number of statements that were factually inaccurate or misleading. Fact-checkers from multiple outlets documented significant issues:

1. NATO Contributions and Benefits

Trump characterized NATO as a burden on the United States, asserting the U.S. “never got anything” out of the alliance. This framing ignores both measurable benefits and longstanding structural agreements:

The U.S. does bear a large share of NATO defense spending, but it does not pay 100% of it; in 2024, U.S. defense spending comprised roughly 60-plus percent of total NATO expenditure. – NewsChannel3-12
NATO membership delivers both strategic security for the U.S. and economic and political stability among allies, which benefit U.S. interests. – NewsChannel3-12

2. Wind Energy and China

Trump derided renewable energy efforts, particularly wind power, and claimed he couldn’t find evidence of wind farms in China. This is demonstrably false:

China ranks first in the world in installed wind power capacity, with roughly 40–45 percent of global capacity. – Reddit

Such misstatements underscore pervasive misunderstandings about energy infrastructure.

3. Trade and Economic Claims

Trump’s economic narrative included assertions about U.S. trade imbalances and export markets that were incorrect:

He claimed the European Union does not buy American farm products and automobiles, implying that U.S. exports are negligible. In fact, the EU is a major market for U.S. agricultural exports and is among the top vehicle export destinations for U.S. manufacturers. – WRALNews

Additional claims about trade deficits — especially exaggerated figures about China and Canada — were similarly misleading when evaluated against official trade statistics. – WRALNews

4. Election and Historical Falsehoods

During the speech, Trump reiterated the claim that the 2020 U.S. presidential election was “rigged.” This assertion has been conclusively debunked by multiple courts, election officials, and independent fact-checkers. – HindustanTimes

Furthermore, in discussing geopolitical conflicts, Trump mischaracterized some historical events (e.g., conflating diplomatic tensions or border disputes with actual wars). – MediaITE

Economic Performance and Domestic Policy

Trump also touted U.S. economic performance under his administration, claiming low inflation and high growth. While inflation has been reduced from peaks seen earlier in the decade, some of Trump’s accompanying statistics — like headline growth figures and the scale of investment commitments — were overstated compared with independent economic data. – NewsWeek

His framing of U.S. economic strength was intended to contrast with his characterisation of the previous administration, though key metrics show that inflation, growth, and market performance fluctuate due to broader global and domestic conditions, not solely presidential policies. – NewsWeek

Rhetoric, Reactions, and Implications

Trump’s Davos speech was met with a mixture of shock, criticism, and, in some quarters, applause for his combative posture. European leaders, especially from Denmark and the EU, expressed concern about his Greenland remarks and his critiques of European energy and economic policy. – Guardian

Financial markets reacted positively to the pledge not to use force in pursuing Greenland, but broader geopolitical analysts warned that pushing such rhetoric in a forum dedicated to economic cooperation risked undermining U.S. credibility. – Time

Conclusion

President Trump’s appearance at the 2026 World Economic Forum was consequential — not just for its content but for the contradictions and controversies it generated. While his call for U.S. leadership and economic strength resonated with some domestic audiences, the fact-checking analysis reveals that many claims were inaccurate, misrepresented complex facts, or repeated debunked narratives. The emphasis on territorial ambitions like Greenland, along with misstatements about trade, energy, and alliances, highlights the challenges of integrating nationalist and transactional rhetoric into forums predicated on multilateral cooperation.

In sum, the Davos speech stands as a stark example of how high-level international engagement can be shaped as much by political theatre and domestic audience signaling as by policy substance — and the importance of grounding such speeches in verifiable facts if they are to foster trust and constructive global dialogue.

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Enough is enough

Truth still matters

A conversation with ChatGPT

Cease fires and talks

Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.)

Forward look, ukraine – 5

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March 2025

Representatives of the American president, Donald Trump, have been talking with both Russian and Ukrainian representatives in an attempt to end the war. Trump repeatedly claims, ‘This war would never have happened if I’d been president’, and further claimed that he’d be able to end it in 24 hours once he was in office. The first claim cannot be tested, but no evidence has been presented as to how the war might have been averted. And the second claim was, at best, wishful thinking; Trump has had a lot longer than 24 hours but there’s still no sign of the war ending any time soon.

What is being discussed between the USA and Russia and between the USA and Ukraine is still only partly clear, but the best we can hope for in the near-term is some kind of Black Sea ceasefire and a 30-day stoppage of attacks on energy systems. It’s hardly the kind of complete ceasefire (‘end the killing’) that Donald Trump promised us!

But when you look a little deeper there are issues that would be obvious to anyone who is a good negotiator. Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.) And Russia will wriggle and squirm endlessly to avoid an energy ceasefire. Putin wants to seem agreeable to the ceasefire to appease Trump, but he doesn’t want to actually sign on the dotted line because he thinks he’s winning the energy battle. (He’s not.) Nor are Trump’s offers to Putin entirely within his gift. No NATO countries involved? No Western troops in Ukraine? No more weapons or ammunition for Ukraine? Sorry Mr Trump, Europe will not necessarily do your bidding over this. French and British forces might be there sooner than you think. Macron is making announcements as I write; you cannot make a gift unless you’re holding it in your hand. (And you’re not holding it.)

What will happen next?

That is, of course, the big question. I can give my thoughts, but nothing is certain.

Let’s start with what we know.

If Putin is winning this war, he doing it in a very curious way. So far, his initial take-over bid was stopped and then substantially pushed back by Ukraine. He’s lost 900 000 troops, killed or seriously wounded. He’s lost the vast bulk of his armoured vehicles, tanks, trucks, ships in the Black Sea, artillery, radar equipment, anti aircraft missiles, and many aircraft and helicopters.
Energy infrastructure has been severely damaged in both countries, particularly electrical systems in Ukraine; and oil and gas production, transport, refining and storage facilities in Russia.
Militarily, Russia has been seriously weakened while Ukraine has become stronger. Ukraine develops and manufactures cruise missiles and drones that are flying further and further into Russian territory.
Ukraine is innovating rapidly, and faster than Russia. This is noticeable in the first person view (FPV) drone technology, but also in the longer distance technologies and in sea-drones.
Ukraine has focused on specific kinds of target to great effect, taking out much of Russia’s air defence, enabling a greater proportion of attacks to get through undetected.
There are clear signs that Ukraine is getting the upper hand along the lines of contact. For a long time, Russia has been making very slow, but continuous progress (though at very great cost). Recently there have been signs that Ukraine might get the upper hand, Russian progress has slowed almost everywhere, stalled in some places, and Ukraine has been able to take back some ground in several areas. This gadual reversal of Russian success will likely become faster as the summer proceeds.
The Russian economy is in a really poor state and slowly getting worse, not better. This too could well be a trend that will become a fatal crash within the next twelve months or so.

In terms of Trump’s efforts to curry favour with Russia and crush Ukraine – because that is how I interpret what is going on – there is an elephant in the room. It may not be a truly heavyweight elephant, but Europe (and I include the UK here, as well as other allies like Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea) has no wish to stop supporting Ukraine. Continued supply of weapons, ammunition, electricity and financial help from Europe and her friends may just be something Trump cannot influence very much. He can make offers and promises to Putin, but can he force the rest of us into line? I have no doubt he’ll try, but at the same time I very much doubt he’ll succeed.

In summary

The short term prospects for Ukraine are more pain, more suffering, and significant struggles to deal with both Russia (miltarily) and America (politically).

But I do believe the longer term prospects are much brighter. Ukraine can become an important part of Europe, a member of the EU, with a strong economy and strong armed forces, contributing culturally, economically and acting in concert with other states bordering Russia as a bulwark against Russian expansionism.

Slava Ukraini! Heroyam slava!

Forward look, ukraine – 6

Chain of command

Operation Vivaldi

The effects so far

Economic considerations

Strategy and outcomes

Military production

Innovation

And the future?

Russian strategy

In conclusion

See also:

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On the web – 2

The web as intended

See also:

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Image of the day – 187

See also:

Useful? Interesting?

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Image of the day – 186

Fact-Checking President Trump’s Davos Speech and Press Conference

Introduction

A Controversial Theme: Greenland and U.S. Expansionism

Misleading and False Claims

1. NATO Contributions and Benefits

2. Wind Energy and China

3. Trade and Economic Claims

4. Election and Historical Falsehoods

Economic Performance and Domestic Policy

Rhetoric, Reactions, and Implications

Conclusion

See also:

Useful? Interesting?

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Forward look, ukraine – 5

What will happen next?

In summary

See also:

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