Author: Chris Jefferies

I live in the west of England, worked in IT, and previously in biological science.

Blast from the past… 9

Judy had a job at Bristol University in the Biochemistry Department, while I was working at Long Ashton Research Station on pollination.

< Previous | Index | Next >

Notes from bygone years – Augusts one after another
Hint: Click on the thumbnails for larger images.

A year ago

Ukraine was making exceptional progress against the Russian Army’s invasion in August 2022. I was encouraged to see this and wrote in my journal:

‘Ukraine is making serious inroads into the Russian held parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and Russian forces are redeploying from the Luhansk/Donetsk region, and I suspect they’re more vulnerable while moving than they are when dug in. Perhaps Ukraine can keep them shuttling back and forth between the regions, nibbling away at them all the time. But other reports suggest the Russian economy is in serious trouble too, unemployment is severe now and despite higher prices for oil and gas, the profits are down because of reduced sales.’

The map was provided by ISW

A year on, all that remains true, and the Russian economy, army, and politics continue in (probably terminal) decline.

<Jul 2022 – Sep 2022>

Two years ago
Cromford Mills, partly restored

On 5th August 2021 we were on holiday with the family and visited Cromford Mills where Richard Arkwright built the world’s first water-powered factory to manufacture cotton thread.

It was fascinating to see the buildings and surroundings and to think about the industrial revolution.

<Jul 2021 – Sep 2021>

Five years ago
The cable car at Tracouet

In August 2018, as in 2021 (above) we were on holiday with the family, this time in Switzerland. Some of us took a cable-car to Tracouet, 850 m above the little town of Nendaz. We walked back down, enjoying some beautiful views; it took around three hours.


<Jul 2018 – Sep 2018>

Ten years ago
Sharing bread

In August 2013 I wrote about the way in which all followers of Jesus are called to be leaders – but perhaps not in quite the way we usually think. (Read the original article)


<Jul 2013 – Sep 2013>

Fifteen years ago
Dan and Kerry

In August 2008 – Dan and Kerry were married and there was a big family party. Fifteen years on Dan and Kerry are going strong, and everyone is that much older. Some of those present on the day are no longer with us, sadly.


<Jul 2008 – Sep 2008>

Twenty years ago
Valleys and mountains

In August 2003 – We met in Eaton Ford and what we were shown has remained with me ever since. The Holy Spirit told us to ‘look out and look up’, and that has turned out to be the best possible advice and guidance in every situation.


<Jul 2003 – Sep 2003>

Twenty-five years ago

In August 1998 – My daughter Beth married Paz (clearly August is a good month for weddings).

Reception in a quarry

The ceremony was held at the register office in Bristol, everyone gathered in Quaker’s Friars and then made our way to the Registry Office together. After the official parts and signing the register, we all left for photos outside.

Then we all drove to Axbridge where the reception was held in a nearby quarry, a delightful setting (though unusual) and the weather was (mostly) kind. There were showers around, but there was also quite a bit of sunshine. Dad had a ‘head-umbrella’ which he enjoyed using when it rained, and eventually we all gave up and made our way to the village hall backup location.


<Jul 1998 – Sep 1998>

Thirty years ago

In August 1993 we spent our family holiday in North Wales.

The family in Llangollen

We walked over the canal bridge near Llangollen, took a ride on a steam train, travelled in a canal barge pulled by a horse, visited museums, gardens, a castle and a lot more. All the usual holiday things people do. (See a video clip)


<Jul 1993 – Sep 1993>

Thirty-five years ago
Beth and Grandpa

In August 1988 we visited my parents in Cirencester. The photo shows Beth and her Grandpa, they’re chuckling about a giant snail Grandpa has in a glass tank. There was often something interesting to see on these visits!


<Jul 1988 – Sep 1998>

Forty years ago

In August 1983 Debbie and Beth were enjoying the school holiday, Judy was enjoying a break from teaching Biology at Cotham Grammar School, and I was continuing research into pollen tube growth at Long Ashton Research Station. We probably went on holiday for a couple of weeks, most likely in North Wales.


<Jul 1983 – Sep 1983>

Forty-five years ago

In August 1978 Debbie and Beth were both three; three years old in Debbie’s case, and Beth was just three months.

<Jul 1978 – Sep 1978>

Fifty years ago

In August 1973 Judy and I had been married less than three years and were living in a flat in Belmont Road, Bristol. Judy had a job at Bristol University as a research assistant at the University Biochemistry Department in Woodland Road, while I was working at Long Ashton Research Station on apple and pear pollination.

<Jul 1973 – Sep 1973>

Fifty-five years ago
A commercial glasshouse

In August 1968 I was a student at the University of Bath, studying for my first degree in Horticulture. The photo is a commercial glasshouse seen on one of our visits.


<Jul 1968 – Sep 1968>

Sixty years ago

In August 1963 I had quite a surprise. The family were on holiday at Aberporth on Cardigan Bay and we’d gone to Pembroke for the day. We saw one of the last RAF Short Sunderland flying boats retired at Pembroke Dock. We also took a look at Pembroke Castle and imagine my shock when walking round the outside of one of the towers, who should I almost bump into but my physics teacher from school!

<Jul 1963 – Sep 1963>

Sixty-five years ago

In August 1958 the US nuclear submarine, ‘Nautilus‘ became the first vessel to pass underneath the ice at the North Pole. Meanwhile it was my school holidays, between the fifth and sixth years at Querns School (a junior school in Querns Lane, Cirencester).

<Jul 1958 – Sep 1958>

Seventy years ago

In August 1953 I’d just turned five and was learning that I’d be starting school in September. That seemed like a lifetime away so I probably gave it very little thought, but it was going to be a major point of change in my life.

<Jul 1953 – Sep 1953>

Seventy-five years ago

In August 1948 I was in my first month of life. I don’t remember it of course! We were living with my grandparents in Victoria Road, Cirencester while Mum and Dad waited to reach the top of the waiting list for a newly built council house on the Beeches Estate.

<Jul 1948 – Sep 1948>

Eighty years ago

In August 1943 Dad wrote in his diary for Saturday 7th, ‘Our American soldier billitee (sic) arrived though I didn’t see him’. I didn’t know my grandparents had hosted a USA serviceman until I read that diary entry just a moment ago!

<Jul 1943 – Sep 1943>

< Previous | Index | Next >

North Coast 500 – Day 2

There are many of these Pictish stones in the north-east of Scotland, but the others are all in museums

Part 2 of a series – North Coast 500

< Day 1 | Index | No later posts >

Weston-super-Mare to Dornoch – 17th June

The day began with a flight to Inverness Airport, and then a short journey north with several stops en route, ending at Dornoch where we spent the night in a traditional hotel.

We skipped breakfast as we were keen to get to the airport and could buy something there after checking in. Paul gave us a lift to Weston-super-Mare railway station where we loaded our luggage onto the Airport Shuttle bus and watched the countryside go by until turning into Lulsgate Airport. The bus service from Weston is very efficient and only £7 return, but on arrival we discovered our flight with EasyJet was running 45 minutes late because landing had been delayed at Schipol on the plane’s first flight of the day. We had more time than expected to grab coffee and choose a light breakfast.

Once on the plane (an Airbus A320), we were soon airborne and had good views of familiar local landmarks including south Bristol, the Chew Valley and Blagdon reservoirs, and Flat Holm in the Bristol Channel. After that we were in thick cloud until we got our first views of Scotland on our approach to Inverness Airport. We were soon in the arrivals area with our bags and had a rather long wait for our turn at the car hire desk. But then we were quickly on the road out from the airport and able to start our journey towards the north coast.

Heading north from Inverness

We had decided not to visit Inverness on this trip, but to get started right away on the NC500 route. We had visited Inverness briefly on an earlier holiday, and thought we might get a chance to visit again during our family get-together in the Cairngorms in August. We skirted the city on the A9, crossed the river by the bridge and visited the Shandwick Stone for our first stop. This is a Pictish carved monument encased in glass; there are many of these Pictish stones in the north-east of Scotland, but the others are all in museums so it’s great that this one still stands where it was erected, about 1200 years ago. It is a Christian monument with a cross forming an important part of the design, clearly showing that the Christian faith had reached the north-east of Scotland by 800 AD.

We drove on to Portmahomack, a pretty fishing village, well known for its mermaid sitting on a rock on the pebbly beach. We parked the car to explore on foot and take some photos, then we drove across a second bridge near Dingwall before heading on to Dornoch for our first night’s stay in a comfortable, little hotel in the town. Had we not flown we would have needed one or two nights en route to limit the daily driving. This would have been fun, and would have allowed us to explore others places in England and in Scotland on our way to Dornoch. But we didn’t have much time and wanted to focus on the NC500 route as much as possible.

Dornoch

We had time to explore a little during the late afternoon. Dornoch is a beautiful small town, peaceful and historic.

Strolling out to the coast just 1 km from the town centre, we ate at ‘The Highland Larder’, refreshingly different and with an open-sided shelter against wind and rain.

We walked around the old streets, noticed the widespread use of warm sandstone for older buildings like the little castle, and looked in shop windows as we passed. The cathedral here is the most northerly on the British mainland, only the Orkney Islands have a cathedral further north than this. We decided to look around the cathedral the next day and instead spend our time getting a feel for the town. We stayed in The Eagle Hotel which was unpretentious, comfortable and friendly.

See also:

Blast from the past… 8

We are often in situations where we’re amongst people we recognise, but know almost nothing about.

< Previous | Index | Next >

Notes from bygone years – Julys duly remembered
Hint: Click on the thumbnails for larger images.

A year ago

On 7th July 2022 I noted that ‘the Conservative party is in a state of confusion right now’. Not a lot has changed in the last twelve months; it seems the Conservative ship is still foundering. I included a picture of a sinking ship in my article, here it is again. I also argued for a general election as soon as possible and we’re still waiting on that one! So the big question now is, ‘Will the Conservatives still be in power in July 2024?’ Hard to say, isn’t it! In my judgement it’s very unlikely, but we’ll have to wait and see. The last possible date for the next general election is 28th February 2025. (See the original post.)

Graphic of a sinking ship

<Jun 2022 – Aug 2022>

Two years ago
Starship’s first launch, 20th April 2023 – Image from Wikimedia

In July 2021, SpaceX‘s Superheavy Booster 3 was being tested at Boca Chica in Texas. They continue to develop and build boosters (and Starships too) at a prodigious rate, and have already launched the full stack on it’s first test flight. That flight failed to reach orbit, and caused serious damage to the launch mount but, following repairs, they are very nearly ready for a second attempt and have made a lot of changes following lessons learned from flight 1.

<Jun 2021 – Aug 2021>

Five years ago
The JDMC cover

In July 2018 I shared an extract from my short guide, JDMC. I emphasised the work of the Holy Spirit in church life and looked at ways we can recognise and value his activity.

I didn’t want JDMC to be only about what we do, but more significantly about what Jesus does. (Read the original article)

<Jun 2018 – Aug 2018>

Ten years ago
Ambience Cafe, St Neots

Research shows we are often in situations where we’re amongst people we recognise, but know almost nothing about. In July 2013 I was thinking about this and how I might notice and engage with such people. (Read the original article)



<Jun 2013 – Aug 2013>

Fifteen years ago
Still from a video about the hymn

In July 2008 I wrote about the famous Welsh hymn, ‘Dyma gariad fel y moroedd’ or in English ‘Here is love vast as the ocean’. Read about the hymn’s origins and listen to it in the original article.


<Jun 2008 – Aug 2008>

Twenty years ago
Crow’s nest on HMS Warrior

July 2003 saw us meeting at home to listen to what the Spirit would say and watch what he would do. And of course, we were not disappointed. Afterwards I posted ‘Fallen and lifted up‘ to capture something of that evening.



<Jun 2003 – Aug 2003>

Twenty-five years ago
Kimbolton Market Place

In July 1998 we visited Kimbolton, just a short distance from our home in Tilbrook. Although it’s a village, Kimbolton always seemed much more like a small town with a market place and Kimbolton Castle, now a private school.


<Jun 1998 – Aug 1998>

Thirty years ago
The Sealed Knot

In July 1993 Judy, Debbie and Beth went to see a Sealed-Knot re-enactment of a Civil War battle. I didn’t go to this as I was probably at work at the time.



<Jun 1993 – Aug 1993>

Thirty-five years ago
Mum and Mickey

In July 1988 My Mum was sixty and we had a party at The Catherine Wheel pub in Bibury. Here she is unwrapping a present – a Mickey Mouse landline telephone. She had always wanted one of these!


<Jun 1988 – Aug 1988>

Forty years ago
Apple pollen tubes

In July 1983 my mathematician friend, Phil, and I had a scientific paper published. Phil built a mathematical model for the effect of temperature on apple pollen tubes. This was based on experimental measurements I’d made in spring 1982.

<Jun 1983 – Aug 1983

Forty-five years ago

In July 1978 Beth was just two months old (whoops, I think I just gave her age away). We were living in a terraced house in Yatton and I was working on plum and apple pollination.

<Jun 1978 – Aug 1978>

Fifty years ago
Belland Drive in Charlton Kings

In July 1973 I inspected the base for a greenhouse with my father-in-law, Ron Hill. Here we are, having a good look. As you can see, Ron’s garden in Charlton Kings was beautifully maintained.


<Jun 1973 – Aug 1973>

Fifty-five years ago

In July 1968 I celebrated my 20th birthday. I don’t remember the occasion, but it would have involved a bit of a party with my Mum and Dad, my three sisters, Judy, and possibly her parents and brother too. From my current perspective it seems a very long time ago!

<Jun 1968 – Aug 1968>

Sixty years ago
A beach on the Welsh coast

In July 1963 I was 14 years old and we might have been on holiday, but more likely it would have been August. In any case, here’s my Dad taking a photo of the family on the beach on the coast of Ceredigion, Wales.


<Jun 1963 – Aug 1963>

Sixty-five years ago

In July 1958 I turned ten-years-old, and I’d finished my fifth year of junior education. It was the summer holiday, hooray!

<Jun 1958 – Aug 1958>

Seventy years ago

In July 1953 I was four, turning five and hadn’t yet started school. Mum, Dad, my little sister, Cindy, and I lived in Queen Anne’s Road on the Beeches estate in Cirencester.

<Jun 1953 – Aug 1953>

Seventy-five years ago

July 1948 was the month I was born. I was one of the first two children to be delivered at Cirencester’s new maternity hospital. It’s now the main building of today’s Cirencester Hospital.

<Jun 1948 – Aug 1948>

Eighty years ago

On 29th July 1943 my Dad cycled home from school at the end of term. It was his last day of full-time education.

<Jun 1943 – Aug 1943>

< Previous | Index | Next >

North Coast 500 – Day 1

The tidal range is enormous, exceeded only by the Bay of Fundy in North America, and the beach is gently shelving here so the tide goes out several miles.

Part 1 of a series – North Coast 500

< No earlier posts | Index | Day 2 >

Cirencester to Weston-super-Mare – 16th June

We had decided to fly to Inverness and pick up a hire car there, mainly because we had limited time with Donna’s work and other commitments and we wanted to spend our time on the NC500 route, not driving to Inverness and back.

Perhaps the title is incorrect as the day was spent hundreds of miles from the North Coast 500 (NC500), but it was the first day of our holiday. Our nearest airport is Lulsgate, south-west of Bristol; and Donna’s brother Paul and his wife, Vanessa, live in Weston-super-Mare, which is very close; we drove down on Friday evening, 16th June, and spent the night with them ready to catch our flight the following morning.

Weston-super-Mare beach and pier with the Welsh coast in the distance

It was good to spend the evening chatting over coffee, having a bit of a catch up. We like Weston, the photo shows the beach and the pier. In addition to those, notice the land on the horizon which is part of South Wales, the Bristol Channel which is very wide at this point, and the mud between the sea and the sand. The tidal range is enormous, exceeded only by the Bay of Fundy in North America, and the beach is gently shelving here so the tide goes out several miles. This photo shows Weston closer to high tide than low tide!

We brought our bags into the house and gave Paul the keys as we won’t be needing them and it would be good if he was able to move the car if a need arose.

We slept well, knowing we had a long journey in the morning. It would be the first day travelling north from Inverness.

What is the North Coast 500?

This name, often abbreviated to just NC500, is a famous touring route along the north coast of the mainland of Scotland. You can follow the route in either direction, starting from Inverness Castle. We chose the anti-clockwise version, making the fabulous Highlands scenery a grand finale to our journey.

Which part of a holiday is best in your view? Is it setting out on a new adventure, being away and exploring, or returning home?

See also:

North Coast 500 – INDEX

We diverted from part of the north coast to visit some inland places; it was a day of valleys, woodland, mountains, lochs and narrow, winding roads.


(See indexes on other topics)

Donna and I had an amazing trip around the north coast, mostly following the North Coast 500 route. We flew into Inverness and made our way north, then west and eventually south again, finally heading back to Inverness for the flight home.

Blast from the past… 7

In June 1963 I was 14 years old and on a school day trip to Coventry; I took a photo in the new central area of the city.

< Previous | Index | Next >

Notes from bygone years – June, June and yet more June
Hint: Click on the thumbnails for larger images.

A year ago

On 25th June 2022 we walked a section of the Cotswold Way, from Dowdeswell Reservoir a couple of hours south-east of Cheltenham, to Cooper’s Hill four miles or so south-east of Gloucester. The walk was 13 miles on a beautiful clear day with light haze, the Malvern Hills (on the horizon in the photo, but nearly lost in the haze) are 22 miles away.

The view north-west across Cheltenham

We walked with Donna’s brother, Paul, and his wife, Vanessa; they do a lot more walking than we do. With stops along the way for coffee and lunch, it was a great experience. A steep climb up the scarp at the beginning and then a more gentle amble along the top took us to Cooper’s Hill.

<May 2022 – Jul 2022>

Two years ago

In June 2021 we visited Malham Cove with the family, an area of limestone pavement in Yorkshire.

Steep climbs up and down, but fantastic views and an astonishing area of deep and wides cracks to enjoy at the top.

<May 2021 – Jul 2021>

Five years ago
Image from Wikimedia

In June 2018 I posted an article on JHM, ‘Adoption as an heir‘. In Roman society, wealthy people might adopt someone as their heir, to ensure that their life’s work would be continued. And this same notion would make sense in helping them to understand that a god might do something similar. Paul uses this tradition to explain that the One God of the Jewish nation doesn’t want us to be slaves or even employees, but heirs with Christ.

<May 2018 – Jul 2018>

Ten years ago

In June 2013 I wrote about leadership, and how Jesus trained leaders. Like the Pharisees, Jesus taught his disciples how to teach. He did it by example, but he also took his closest followers away from the crowds from time to time to spend time teaching them personally in some detail. For more about this, read the original post.

<May 2013 – Jul 2013>

Fifteen years ago

In June 2008 I wrote about ‘Jesus in the prison cell‘, with a video of an Iranian Muslim who met Jesus and decided to follow him. It was an extraordinary story. There are more recent videos, in much better video quality, but I have not watched those. You can find them by searching for Afshin Javid in the You Tube search bar.

<May 2008 – Jul 2008>

Twenty years ago
From Wikimedia

In June 2003 we were going to meet for prayer and to hear what the Holy Spirit would say to us, but as there were only two of us, we instead took a walk up the riverbank.

Here’s what happened.

<May 2003 – Jul 2003>

Twenty-five years ago

In June 1998 Donna and I visited Kimbolton School where there was a summer fair with old cars and all sorts of stalls and events.

We were able to see the inside of the house as well.

<May 1998 – Jul 1998>

Thirty years ago

In June 1993 Judy and I took our daughter Beth and her French school exchange visitor, Julia, to see the Brecon Beacons.

<May 1993 – Jul 1993>

Thirty-five years ago

In June 1988 we were still using a Sinclair QL for word processing with a green screen monitor (though the QL supported colour).

<May 1988 – Jul 1988>

Forty years ago

In June 1983 I was experimenting with apple pollen tube growth at Long Ashton Research Station.

<May 1983 – Jul 1983>

Forty-five years ago

In June 1978 Debbie was three and we met my grandmother (in the wheelchair) at my parent’s home in Cirencester.

<May 1978 – Jul 1978>

Fifty years ago

In June 1973 Judy and I, along with my Mum and Dad, watched a hydrogen balloon (or perhaps a helium balloon) being filled and flying out of Cirencester Park. Amazing to see!

<May 1973 – Jul 1973>

Fifty-five years ago

In June 1968 I was on a sandwich degree course at Bath University and was working hard on a fruit and vegetable farm. I had my first car at this time and was able to visit Judy in Cheltenham and my parents in Cirencester.

<May 1968 – Jul 1968>

Sixty years ago

In June 1963 I was 14 years old and on a school day-trip to Coventry; I took a photo in the new central area of the city.

<May 1963 – Jul 1963>

Sixty-five years ago

In June 1958 I was nine-years-old, in my 5th year at junior school.

<Nothing earlier – Jul 1958>

Seventy years ago

In June 1953 I was four and chose a postcard of Mallard to send to my Granny-in-Ireland.

<Nothing earlier – Jul 1953>

Seventy-five years ago

In June 1948 I was almost a full-term foetus, and had not yet seen the big world outside my Mum.

<Nothing earlier – Jul 1948>

Eighty years ago

In June 1943 my Dad was at boarding school. On 17th they held a fire drill in which he played the role of a casualty with two broken legs. Rendcomb College clearly took World War II seriously (as, of course, they should).

<Nothing earlier – Jul 1943>

< Previous | Index | Next >

Blast from the past – INDEX

(See indexes on other topics)

This is an index page, from here you can browse around all the articles in this series, or find a particular one you’d like to read.

Blast from the past… 13 – December 2023
Blast from the past… 12 – November 2023
Blast from the past… 11 – October 2023
Blast from the past… 10 – September 2023
Blast from the past… 9 – August 2023
Blast from the past… 8 – July 2023
Blast from the past… 7 – June 2023
Blast from the past… 6 – May 2023
Blast from the past… 5 – April 2023
Blast from the past… 4 – March 2023
Blast from the past… 3 – February 2023
Blast from the past… 2 – January 2023

Blast from the past… 1 – December 2022

Meet two of my online friends

They are both unusual people, have rather special ways of looking at the world, and comment from opposite sides of the war in Ukraine.

Yaroslava (Yara) is Ukrainian, she lives in Kyiv with her son and her cat; she writes and photographs what she sees around her and posts news and thoughts. Konstantin is Russian, but left in 2022 and now lives in Uzbekistan; he gives 30-minute live YouTubes about life and events in Russia followed by open discussions online, and he runs a breakfast club for Ukrainians and Russians in Tashkent.

I’m exaggerating when I say they are my friends. I exchange messages with Yara occasionally and follow her on Twitter, but I’ve never had a reply from Konstantin. But to me they feel like friends. They are both unusual people, have rather special ways of looking at the world, and comment from opposite sides of the war in Ukraine. I think they would agree with one another on many things, both oppose the invasion and the war, and both feel compelled to communicate these things to the world.

I’d like to introduce you to them.

Yara

The two best places to look for Yara are on BuyMeACoffee and on Twitter. Click through and read some of her posts. Yara is artistic and expresses herself poetically, what comes through most clearly are her heart and her feelings in the moment. She writes about the war (of course) and she uses imagined dialogues quite often. On Twitter she sometimes tells us how she is feeling, shares photos (most of them very, very good) and makes delightful short videos as she walks around Kyiv. Yara is proud of her city, and rightly so.

Konstantin

Find Konstantin on YouTube (Inside Russia), I recommend his daily live videos. He thinks things through very thoroughly before starting a session, and usually he sets out his points carefully and convincingly. Sometimes his emotions show through a little of course, but logical thinking, business experience, and planning ahead are his strengths. He has a relaxed pace in his livestreams and this can make him seem slow to develop an argument, but it also make it easier to follow the underlying logic.

Summary

Yara and Konstantin are two very different people. What they have in common is that through no choice of their own they have been deeply affected by the war – as have their friends, families and neighbours.

Both have had their working lives interrupted, and both have embarked on new and perhaps unexpected projects. Both are worth listening to if you want to better understand this terrible conflict and how it’s disrupting life on both sides.

I’ll say no more about them, they will both speak for themselves.

Nova Khakovka

Under the appalling circumstances of the breach of the Nova Khakovka dam a few days ago, I can’t publish this post without mentioning it. But words fail me. There are none that fit. ‘Tragic’ barely scratches the surface. And if it was a deliberate act, ‘evil’ and ‘heinous’ are utterly inadequate.

Yara and Konstantin have both responded to the breach in their different ways and I’m sure they will mention it again as the details and the terrible after-effects become clearer. The world will not forget this event. If it was due to poor maintenance or improper management (this seems rather unlikely but is conceivable) then Russia must take responsibility because they invaded Ukraine, captured the dam, and were in control at the time of failure. If it was deliberately breached following a political or military order to do so, that is even worse and the world will not forgive those responsible. In time there will be clarity on the cause of the dam failure, currently there is a great deal of circumstantial evidence pointing to a deliberate act on the part of Russia.

Quick note on AGI

Following my recent post on AGI dangers (AGI – Hopeful and less hopeful news) I want to draw attention to a Guardian podcast that I think everyone should listen to.

The podcast discusses whether it may be possible to develop AGI without causing an existential threat to humanity. This is a hugely important issue, we all need to be informed and we should all have an opinion.

AGI – Hopeful and less hopeful news

Personally, I think the threat is real and potentially impossible to stop with very little time for effective countermeasures.

It’s fair to say that few people are currently thinking about the future of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). Those who do are mostly researchers and engineers working on the topic.


Wikipedia article – Existential risk from artificial general intelligence

The hope is based around alignment, a term used broadly to mean the degree to which an AGI can be made to conform to human goals and objectives. Poorly aligned AGI would probably be diasastrous and unsafe, well aligned AGI might be beneficial and safe. And let’s be clear at the outset: there are concerns about how AGI (and even current technology like ChatGPT) will cause disruption and harm by affecting social behaviour or employment in the way new technologies have done in the past. But that’s not what we are addressing here. The more significant thinking is about the existential threat to humanity. Will an AGI spell the end, will it render humans extinct?

Nor are we discussing here whether or not it will be possible to develop an AGI, some people argue not, that there’s some kind of unbridgeable leap between current AI systems and an intelligent system with thoughts, ideas of its own, and self-awareness. But we know this is incorrect; such a system has already been created by evolution – humans! This level of intelligence is achievable and it’s already been done. It may take time, it might not be easy, but developments in neural networks and related systems will lead to AGI sooner or later. ChatGPT can already write workable computer code – just think about that for a moment.

The hopeful news

The hopeful news comes from OpenAI, the company that created ChatGPT and the GPT software behind it. They have found that process supervision produces better results than outcome supervision. And this gives us a much better chance of understanding how the AI makes its choices. Process supervision feeds back on the quality of the interim stages of an AI’s processing; but outcome supervision feeds back on only the quality of the final result.

Understanding how an AGI works might help developers build in robust alignment features; and if process supervision is more effective than alternatives, it stands a good chance of being employed by developers.

The less hopeful news

The unhopeful news comes from discussions about the nature of risk and human thinking about risk, expressed in discussions on LESSWRONG and elsewhere.

Closing thoughts

Currently, only a very small number of people are concerned about a possible existential threat from AGI. But most of the people with that concern are some of the same people that have knowledge and experience of AGI, what AI can currently do, and how quickly the systems might advance and escape our control.

Personally, I think the threat is real and potentially impossible to stop with very little time for effective countermeasures. But I also think it might just be possible to avoid the danger, but only if we have binding international agreements and strong oversight. However, I further suspect that it might be impossible to agree those necessary measures completely enough, rigorously enough, or fast enough to be fully effective.

In my judgement we are on rather shaky ground, and the more people who give this serious thought as soon as possible, the better. When the stakes are so very high there can be no such thing as too careful or too thorough.

See also: