Rose breeders … grow thousands of seeds and select those few with outstanding colour, fragrance, [or] disease resistance
It’s springtime, mid-April. and this hedge looks mostly dead. Just one of the beech trees making up the hedge is producing fresh, green leaves. All the rest are covered with dried-up, brown leaves left over from last year. What’s going on?
This hedge consists of seedling beech, they are all different in many ways. They grow at different speeds, some slower, some faster. Their leaves will vary from one plant to the next, some will be paler, some darker. Some will be hairy, others may be smooth and glossy. The bark will vary in roughness and colour.
When you grow seedlings, whether beech or any other plant, every individual will be unique, for uniformity you must use cuttings or grafts so that each plant is genetically the same.
What you are seeing in this hedge is variation in timing; the beech closest to the camera comes into leaf earlier than the others, but in a few weeks from now they will all have green leaves. Garden and commercial plants are often identical to one another and are given names to distinguish them. Rose breeders, for example, grow thousands of seeds and select those few with outstanding colour, fragrance, disease resistance or any other desirable characteristic. The best of the best are bulked up by grafting, given a name like ‘Yorkshire Prince’ or ‘Summer Festival’, and then sold on to garden centres. Grow roses from seed to plant in your garden and you are likely to be badly disappointed (though you might get lucky and produce a winner).
The term ‘plant breeding’ includes breeding for seed production, for example to produce wheat or bean or squash seeds of a named type. This is a different (though allied) process from breeding for vegetative propagation as with roses.
The photo shows a peaceful scene along a stretch of water, this is Barton Mill Pound in Cirencester. Two mallard ducks swim past. What do you see?
Mallards that you can see on the water and reflections of things on the far bank that you can’t see. Light carries information to our eyes, but the brain has to interpret it. A clever thing, the brain!
You just know, without giving it a single deliberate thought, that there’s a stone-built house on the far bank, and there are bare trees so it’s not summer time. And even the little brains of the mallards can process information in the same way. We (and they) do this all day long, every day we live, without having to take any trouble to process the information. We don’t even know how we do it! The brain has multiple layers of neurons, brightness and colour information in from the eyes to the top layer, understanding of what we see out from the bottom layer.
Times Radio interviews General Sir Richard Shirreff
Why do I think everyone should see it? Britain has done more to help Ukraine than many Western nations. So have Poland, France, Germany, Canada, the Baltic States, Finland, Norway and Sweden.
But we need to do so much more. If we do not, we are risking a future war between Russia and NATO. That, of course, is the last thing we want to happen, but if we don’t prepare for the worst case now, it may happen anyway, and partly (even largely) because of our lack of preparedness.
If you want to face down the playground bully you need more friends than he has, and preferably a larger, heavier stick to fight with. We have friends, but right now we are brandishing a twig and hoping the bully will turn away in fear.
He will not.
Sir Richard makes this very clear. That’s why we all need the chance to hear and evaluate what he has to say.
What is an exact representation? It’s a fully accurate impression of something, but still not the thing itself. For a paragraph of text it might be a carefully checked typescript or handwritten copy. It’s not the original, but it carries the essence of the original. If a single character is incorrect, the sense may still be clear, or guessable, or might become misleading. ‘If a single character his incorrect’ could still be clear though an obvious typo. ‘If a shingle character is incorrect’, might be slightly more confusing. ‘It’s now the original’, completely messes with the correct text, ‘It’s not the original’.
For a person, a colour photo is a pretty accurate representation – at least for appearance. A half hour video interview would be even better. An oil painting might give a recognisable impression, unless it was a later Picasso.
What about Jesus?
Yahshua (Jesus) is an interesting case of representation. We don’t have pictures of his appearance, though we do know quite a lot about his character and behaviour. However, he himself is a representation.
The Son is the radiance of God’s glory and the exact representation of his being, sustaining all things by his powerful word. After he had provided purification for sins, he sat down at the right hand of the Majesty in heaven.
Hebrews 1:3 (New International Version)
The sun on a clear day is very bright indeed, so bright it’s dangerous to stare at it directly (don’t try, your eyesight might be permanently damaged). But that powerful light is responsible for making everything else in our daytime world visible to us. This is one of the ways in which Jesus represents the nature of his ancestry. The Father is sometimes described as dangerous to behold, yet he makes everything in the spiritual world visible to us. But it is safe to look directly into Jesus’ face – his twelve closest followers did that, so did the seventy-two, so did the mass of the people from the towns and villages all around Galilee.
Not only is he safe but he sustains everything there is, and he has provided a purity that we could never earn for ourselves. And it works both ways in a sense. Not only does he represent the Father’s glory for us to see, but he represents us in his Father’s holy presence, sitting at his right hand!
What about the Greek?
Let’s look at some of the Greek words here, what can they add for us?
ἀπαύγασμα – apaugasma – ‘the radiance of his glory’ – This has the sense of a gleam flashing out, a flash of reflected light, as from polished metal moving in the sunlight. The Son is a dazzling flash shining out, hinting at the Father’s brightness.
χαρακτὴρ – charaktēr – ‘the exact expression‘ – From which we get the similar sounding English noun ‘character’. The Greek word has a core meaning of accuracy of expression, ‘precisely like’. Jesus is not just a bit like the Father, they are one! So what we see in him really does show us exactly what the Father is like.
ὑποστάσεως- hypostaseōs – ‘of his being’ – substance, or nature – This word is also used in Hebrews 3:14 where the NIV translators chose the word ‘conviction’ in the sense of certainty. Jesus represents the Father’s sustaining essence. What more could we ask? What more could we need?
Final thought
What a good thing that the writer of Hebrews wasn’t a cubist!
The main thing that is necessary, and therefore the first thing to address, is to decide what outcome we want to see. How do we want this war to end?
Here in the democratic world, we claim to be helping Ukraine. But are we really doing enough? I think we began rather late, but after (and even before) the Russian invasion in February 2022 we did make some efforts to help Ukraine with arms and ammunition. And two final questions, ‘Why does it matter anyway?’ and ‘What more should we do?’
In thinking this through there are several things to be considered. Let’s deal with those briefly before discussing in more detail whether we are helping Ukraine enough.
The democratic world
We often hear people talk about ‘The West‘ as a catch-all term for the USA, Europe, and any other similar democracies around the globe. This would include the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and I could list more. ‘The democratic world’ is not the way we usually express it, but I think it’s a more accurate term than ‘The West’.
Ukraine
Most of us know where Ukraine is, particularly following the Russian invasion. Regular news coverage has given most people a reasonable level of knowledge about the place geographically, socially and historically. But we need to acknowledge that there are two distinct understandings of Ukraine. The democratic world accepts that Ukraine became an independent nation when the Soviet Union broke apart in 1991. Ukraine is also recognised by the UN and other international bodies, with borders widely accepted to include Crimea and the Donbas. But the current Russian leadership has a different view, claiming that Ukraine remains part of the Russian World and should be brought back into the fold, by force if necessary.
Countries that don’t identify as part of either the democratic world or the Russian world also view Ukraine in one of those two ways depending on the strength of their association with Russia. North Korea and Iran, for example, accept the Russian version. Many countries in South America, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia take the view of the democratic world, but by no means all. Voting at the UN reveals where the balance of opinion lies – and it’s not with Russia.
Helping Ukraine
Aid of various kinds has been provided to Ukraine. There has been financial support to the Ukrainian government to help with provision of public services and for reconstruction following Russian destruction of power supplies, hospitals, schools, industries and housing. At the same time a wide range of sanctions have been applied to Russian trade and we can see this as support for Ukraine as well.
Additionally there has been considerable help in the supply of weapons and ammunition to help Ukraine fend off Russian attacks; but this has come with strict limits (don’t use what we are giving you to strike targets inside Russia). Limiting the use of weapons in this way is effectively tying the Ukrainian armed force’s hands behind their backs. The argument is that the Democratic World does not want to ‘provoke’ Russia. That’s a serious weakness, not just for Ukraine, but for all of us.
And although European nations and their allies are still providing arms and ammunition, the USA is not, due to internal wrangling in the House of Representatives.
Is there more we should do?
Undoubtedly, yes, much more. The main thing that is necessary, and therefore the first thing to address, is to decide what outcome we want to see. How do we want this war to end? We should have decided this more than two years ago, even before Russian armour, aircraft, supply vehicles, and troops crossed the international border in a drive to Kyiv on 24th February 2022. There are only four possible answers here:
We want Russia to win
We want the war to drag on and on while Russia continues to commit war crimes, destroying towns and cities, targeting essential civilian infrastructure, and killing Ukrainian men, women and children
We want a ceasefire agreement
We want Ukraine to win, ie drive Russia back beyond the 1991 borders
So let’s consider the implications of each outcome.
We want Russia to win
This way lies madness, and I don’t think any democratic country is suggesting it. Even if we ignore the illegality of the war, and even if we ignore what Russia would do next (we can guess, given their actions in Bucha, Mariupol, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and so forth), we should never overlook Russia’s existing threats beyond Ukraine. Serious threats have been expressed towards Finland, the three Baltic States, even Poland; and who is to say it would stop there?
We want the war to drag on
In this case we would have to accept that we’d need to go on supporting Ukraine indefinitely with financial and military aid. That represents a very expensive choice! It would also seem to be an abhorrent and immoral choice as it would allow the civilian suffering to continue indefinitely. Does anyone seriously support such an option?
We want a ceasefire agreement
Ukraine would gain a respite from fighting, and so would Russia; it seems like a good choice that many people would support. But we need to think a bit harder about this option. First, it rewards the illegal hostility and land grab that has already taken place. A ceasefire would put an end to Ukrainian hopes of regaining its occupied territory, territory taken against international law and international recognition of borders. Are we really willing to let Russia benefit from its aggression?
And how long would such a ceasefire last? Russia has declared that it wants all of Ukraine (Reuters). Five or six years for Russia to regain its strength, build up its army and armaments, and what would then stop them from starting a new ‘special military operation’. Up until the day of the invasion in 2022, Russia had been telling the world it had no intention of attacking Ukraine! Putin is not a man of his word. Words mean nothing to him; he’s made that clear over and over again. He would simply ignore any commitments previously made in a ceasefire agreement. Trust him at your peril!
We want Ukraine to win
Considering the arguments above, this has to be a no-brainer. Why isn’t it? The answer is clear – we have not thought it through very thoroughly.
I want Ukraine to win, and I want all the countries that support Ukraine to want them to win too. And further, I want all those countries to let Russia know, in no uncertain terms, that our clearly declared intention is that they should lose this unprovoked, illegal war for which they alone carry the responsibility.
Why is it important that Russia understands this? Simply this, that Mr Putin respects strength and clearly expressed intentions. If he is in any doubt that we will settle for less than a full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine including from Crimea and Donbas, he will procrastinate and continue to fight. He may do that anyway, of course. But he must, if necessary, be forced to leave Ukraine.
Why does it matter anyway?
Russia is militarily weaker that they believed themselves to be two years ago, and Ukraine has proved to be far stronger than Putin expected. Russia will not give up voluntarily, so it’s essential that they are forced to do so. It is essential for Ukraine to win as soon as possible, to save innocent lives, to reduce the financial costs for Ukraine and her supporters, and to put Putin and Russia back into a place where they know they have lost and will be unwilling and unable to try again. It’s essential for peace and security in Eastern Europe, and very possibly in Western Europe too. We must not fail Ukraine and we must not fail ourselves. Democratic people deserve to live in a peaceful world. Autocracies must not, in the end, prevail. Indeed, all people deserve to live in a peaceful and harmonious world.
Please don’t misunderstand me, I would very much like peace and harmony with Russia. But that will not become possible until Russian forces withdraw from Ukraine, and accept that military conquest to extend Russian territory is not acceptable.
Historians remind us that we were in a similar situation in 1938 when Czechoslovakia was forced to give significant border areas to Germany ‘to prevent a wider war’. The disputed land was duly given to Germany, but German forces subsequently moved into the rest of the country and took control anyway. World War II broke out soon afterwards when German forces entered Poland.
And that’s what might happen now. Ukraine would be forced to give significant border areas to Russia ‘to prevent a wider war’. The disputed land would be duly given to Russia, but Russian forces would subsequently move into the rest of the country and take control anyway. World War 3 would break out soon afterwards when Russian forces enter Poland and/or the Baltic States.
Let’s not fall into that trap. We need to say, ‘No’, and say it very clearly indeed. We must not say, ‘OK, settle for part of what you want’. Because Putin will smile, take what we agree, and then take the rest later. And he won’t stop there.
There’s another thing to remember. We are not dealing with a reasonable person. Vladimir Putin has lied before, he has never been trustworthy, when he agrees to something it’s because it will bring him an advantage. He regards keeping his word as a serious weakness. He casually murders those who oppose him – even his friends. It’s hard to imagine permanent peace in Europe as long as Putin is alive and free. Russia cannot change while he is in charge. That, too, should remind us of the run up to World War II.
What more should we do?
We should immediately provide much more military support. France is working to provide more armour and air defence missiles. The United States must be deeply embarrassed at their present inability to provide ammunition and air defence help. Czechia has done really well to arrange to supply more than a million shells.
In parallel, our governments should urgently be ramping up manufacture of ammunition for our own stocks in addition to supplying Ukraine, and we must increase military budgets to innovate and enlarge our armed forces. Perhaps the war will not spread beyond Ukraine, but we cannot assume that. It is always better to be safe than sorry. We must stop acting as if war is far away and can never come closer. The old Boy Scouts motto applies – ‘Be prepared’.
The Russian official line is certain to be rejected and disregarded by most governments, by NATO, by the UN, and by people of goodwill
Just take a look at Russia’s current demands for peace with Ukraine, expressed by Dmitry Medvedev. I’m sure you’ll agree that he puts it rather clearly; does this seem reasonable and fair to you?
The text below is an extract from today’s ISW report on the war in Ukraine. These are the Russian conditions for peace. It’s the official line, published by Dmitry Medvedev, currently Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council. This is what he calls a ‘peace formula’, it does have the merit of leaving us in no doubt about what Russia wants.
Medvedev begins the “peace plan” by rhetorically stripping Ukraine of its sovereignty, referring to it as a “former” country and placing the name Ukraine in quotation marks. Medvedev laid out the points of his “peace formula”, which he sardonically described as “calm”, “realistic”, “humane” and “soft.”
The demands are:
Ukraine’s recognition of its military defeat
Complete and unconditional Ukrainian surrender
Full “demilitarization”
Recognition by the entire international community of Ukraine’s “Nazi character”
The “denazification” of Ukraine’s government
A United Nations (UN) statement stripping Ukraine of its status as a sovereign state under international law
A declaration that any successor states to Ukraine will be forbidden to join any military alliances without Russian consent
The resignation of all Ukrainian authorities and immediate provisional parliamentary elections
Ukrainian reparations to be paid to Russia
Official recognition by the interim parliament to be elected following the resignation of Ukraine’s current government that all Ukrainian territory is part of Russia
The adoption of a “reunification” act bringing Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation
The dissolution of the provisional parliament
UN acceptance of Ukraine’s “reunification” with Russia
In a sense, this can be taken as a reply to the Pope’s recent statement about Ukraine ‘raising the white flag’. The Pope has since backtracked and clarified his statement, but Medvedev is most unlikely to backtrack his response.
The Russian official line is certain to be rejected and disregarded by most governments, by NATO, by the UN, and by people of goodwill throughout most of the globe. It is not acceptable as a starting point for negotiations of any kind, more a vain wish-list that very few can accept. Why, exactly, would Ukraine ‘recognise its military defeat’ when it is very clearly not defeated? And why does Medvedev think the entire world would ‘recognise’ that Ukraine has a ‘Nazi character’? Most of the world would be more likely to perceive such a character in the Russian government’s imperialist ambitions.
Dmitry Medvedev, and more to the point Vladimir Putin, seem to think they can get away with rewriting history, disregarding truth, invading an internationally recognised member state of the UN, breaking international law, and have the entire world let them get away with it. They are deluded. We will not and must not allow it.
Notes from bygone years – Marching on and on Hint: Click on the thumbnails for larger images.
March 2023 (1 year before publishing this article)
The heart of Bristol
We visited Bristol for the day on 18th March 1973; it’s only 44 miles from our home in Cirencester. For several years I lived in this fine city, and then for many more years just a few miles to the west. I know the place pretty well and I’ve seen it change with the passing decades. This photo contains many of the places I love: the cathedral, the university, the floating harbour created long ago by damming the River Avon with a lock for entry and exit around times of high tide.
We visited the covered St Nicholas Market where we ate a light Indian lunch, and viewed a gallery of award winning wildlife photos at the M shed. After coffee and cake at a local cafe it was time to drive home. A lovely day to remember.
JHM: I wrote two articles about ChatGPT. – World events: – GPT-4 was launched by OpenAI.
Members of the family met to plant a Siddington Russet apple tree on the site of Siddington Nursery.
When I was young this was a working ornamental and fruit tree nursery, part of the family business run by my grandfather with my father, three uncles, and a cousin. It included a shop in Cirencester and later, a garden centre in the town centre and another at Kingsmeadow on the southern outskirts (now a Tesco Extra). There were a number of nurseries, including Siddington; however, it was a declining business and was wound up in the 1980s.
World events: The UN deplored Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called for the immediate withdrawal of its forces; and Shackleton’s ship Endurance was discovered in the Antarctic;
This old cedar tree was here when I was a child, a feature of Cirencester’s West Market Place. It must have been here when my father was a child too. Usually I just walk past, but on this March day I stopped to take the tree’s portrait.
We were living in St Neots at this time, the photo is of boats in the centre of town, near the River Great Ouse and an easy walk from our home. The short canal in the photo served the industrial part of the town and follows the course of Hen Brook, a small tributary of the Great Ouse.
In March 2009 I visited friends in Yatton, North Somerset, where I had lived for several decades with my first wife, Judy, and our two daughters. I took this photo of our first house; the weeping birch had grown enormously since I last saw it!
Always apply the handbrake when parking your car. This was the scene in the Unilever car park at work one day in March 2004! Somebody left their car with the handbrake off, and the slight slope had been enough to cause a very big problem later. Whoops!
To celebrate our first wedding anniversary, Donna and I visited Rome in March. What a fascinating place! We explored many historic sites – the Vatican, the remains of the Roman Forum, the Roman senate, the temple to all the gods (the Pantheon), but most amazing for me was the Colosseum. The photo shows people entering the building.
World events: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined NATO.
The Gloucestershire Regiment (Glorious Glosters) was disbanded in March 1994, here they are parading through Cirencester in a still frame from a video taken by my Dad. Their final parade was in the city of Gloucester, just three days later.
World events:China made its first connection to the internet; Schindler’s List won seven Oscars; and the Linux kernel v 1.0.0 was released.
We visited the SS Great Britain in Bristol with Debbie’s French Exchange student, Anne. Here are Beth, Anne and Debbie on the old ship. The Bristol/Bordeaux exchange has been running a long time. Judy remembered doing the exchange and now one of her daughters was taking part too.
This was the month that my friend, Tony Everest, died. It was such a tragedy; Tony felt he was a failure. A carpenter by trade, he had lost his job and was unable to find a new one; in particular he felt he had let down his wife and children. He left a message asking me to take his funeral, and although I did that willingly, I was very glad to have the help of some other mutual friends in the planning and on the day.
John Jefferies & Son was redeveloping their small Forum Garden Centre in the area between Tower Street and The Avenue. The site is now Minerva Court, an area of 1980s housing. A number of old, brick and timber greenhouses were demolished and replaced by a single, large aluminium glasshouse for the indoor display area. Debbie had her fourth birthday this month.
World events: NASA’s Voyager 1 probe showed that Jupiter has rings; and Philips demonstrated the first CD audio disc (marketed from 1982).
I believe this is a photo of Bristol from the top of Dundry Hill, though I can’t be completely sure. We were living in the city and used to enjoy the drive out to Dundry from time to time. We were saving to buy our first house at a time of rapid inflation, a difficult situation.
World events: The Terracotta Army was discovered in China; and Hiroo Onoda, a Japanese WW2 soldier, surrendered in The Philippines.
During March I was in my third year at Bath University while Judy was in her second year at Aberystwyth. Exams were only a few months away for both of us, though it’s fair to say Judy was working far harder than I was.
Judy was planning for a biochemistry trip to Cambridge in April and was carefully considering the finances for it (see image). About £15.60 for four days covered accomodation, meals, and travel from Aber to Cambridge and back!
I was in the 5th year at Cirencester Grammar School, and during the Easter holiday some of us went to Paris on a school trip for a week. I took this photo on the platform at Swindon Station waiting for our train to London. I think we might have caught our first train at Cirencester Town Station to change at Kemble. The Cirencester branch closed the following year.
World events: A huge earthquake struck Anchorage in Alaska; Jerrie Mock started a solo flight around the world, becoming the first woman to do so.
The end of the spring term fell in March, I had just one final term and the eleven plus exam to go and that would be the end of my time at junior school. I think that made me feel rather grown up and I began wondering how my new life would be at secondary school.
World events:Archbishop Makarios returned to Cyprus from exile; NASA’s lunar probe Pioneer 4 became the first American object to escape Earth orbit; the Barbie doll was released in the USA; and Hawaii became a US state.
My second term at Querns School continued right through March as Easter wasn’t until mid-April. By this time I was probably getting quite good at copying letters and short, simple words as well as counting small pictures of animals and objects and writing down the correct number. We also got to colour in these little pictures so it seemed quite good fun.
World events: The USA announced that a hydrogen bomb had been tested on Bikini Atoll in the Pacific; the Soviet Union recognised the sovereignty of East Germany.
I was eight months old at the end of March, perhaps beginning to crawl around and confident at sitting. Mum, Dad and I shared a bedroom upstairs in my grandparents home at 37 Victoria Road in Cirencester. I must have been carried up and down the stairs in that house a number of times every day.
World events: 92 000 Baltic States citizens were deported internally in the USSR; and Newfoundland became part of Canada.
Dad registered again for military service (just to be sure) and received his calling up papers three months earlier than expected.
Also in March, as a member of the Air Training Corps (ATC) he was lucky enough to be invited on a cross-country flight in an Airspeed Oxford with two Frenchmen. Taking off from South Cerney, they flew over Chippenham, Thame, Droitwich, Malvern, Monmouth, and Stroud, landing again at South Cerney.
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By an astonishing combination of determination and resolve, shrewd and innovative military action … the government in Kyiv not only hung on, but pushed the Russian Army back in disarray.
Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, and everyone (including the Russian leadership) has been surprised at Ukraine’s success and ability to continue for so long. Right at the start of this war, as Russian columns crossed the international borders from both Russia and Belarus, few of us could have predicted that Ukraine would do so well and for so long. Many of us expected it would all be over in two or three days, yet two years later Ukraine still holds out. How?
Let’s think this through, breaking the topic down to war on land, at sea and in the air. First though, here’s a brief note on the historical background.
Ukraine has a long history and was instrumental in founding Moscow way back in early mediaeval times, but Ukraine was subsequently overrun (along with many other lands) by the Mongol empire in the 13th century. Much more recently, after a long period as a republic within the Soviet Union, Ukraine along with several other republics gained its independence when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. At that time Ukraine was recognised world-wide, including by the Russian Federation, as an independent state with its boundaries clearly defined and agreed.
Ukraine is a founding member of the United Nations, entering that body in 1945. On 24th February 2022, when Russian forces invaded Ukraine, they broke international law.
On land
Most people, including many military analysts, assumed that within a few days of the invasion President Zelensky would have fled the country, been captured, or would be dead. Instead he made the now famous announcement that he needed ammunition, not a ride. And by an astonishing combination of determination and resolve, shrewd and innovative military action, and rapid assistance and weapons supply by the West, the government in Kyiv not only hung on, but pushed the Russian Army back in disarray.
This initial action was followed throughout the rest of the year by further advances against Russian forces and a Russian withdrawal from Kherson. In 2023, a western-style counteroffensive was launched without the air support western military doctrine would have required. Although some ground was gained, it was costly in troops and materiel. More recently, because of greatly reduced arms and ammunition supply by the West, despite promises to provide it, the tide seems to be turning in Russia’s favour in the land war.
Appearances can be deceptive, however. Russia’s land war has been glacially slow and every gain has come at enormous cost in Russian lives, equipment and expenditure. Although Russia is slowly gaining ground at the moment, Ukraine has shown they can take on a powerful invading force and significantly weaken it. This has been a war unlike any previous one. The Ukrainian use of drones has surprised the world’s military experts. First Person View (FPV) drones in particular have brought the demise of very large numbers of Russian armoured vehicles, aided and abetted it must be said by wave after wave of troops and equipment providing a constant supply of targets.
There are many other ways in which Ukraine is developing new tactics and weapons. This isn’t the place to go into details but as a single example, they have focussed on damaging transport hubs, bridges, radar installations, ammunition depots, oil production, arms and munitions factories, steel plants, storage facilities and military headquarters buildings. Why? Because doing so deprives Russian forces of the sustaining facilities they need to continue fighting. Ukraine’s military planners are shrewd and innovative.
At sea
Ukraine has sunk a significant portion of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the remaining ships are at serious risk if they put to sea (or even if they don’t). Port infrastructure in Crimea has been seriously damaged, so ports like Sevastopol are no longer suitable places for repairing or storing vessels. They are not safe places to rearm ships, re-provision them, refuel them, or exchange crews.
And Ukraine’s ability to do this has depended on a number of things. They have developed sea drones that are both stealthy and effective. They have used Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles supplied by Britain and France but they have also carefully prepared the conditions to give them the best chances of success. They have been inventive and have used a range of countermeasures to make it much harder for Russia to detect and counter the incoming missiles.
In the air
Recently, Ukrainian forces have brought down a number of Russian aircraft, from the Su 35 fighters and Su34 multirole planes to the largest and most capable radar aircraft, the A-50s. Just recently, they have been making an almost daily habit of this, making it difficult for Russia to risk flying anywhere near the front line areas. Russia had been using glide bombs allowing them to attack ground forces and civilian targets without coming too close. Now they are having to stay even further back. Estimates are that Ukraine has downed over 600 Russian aircraft over the two years of the conflict so far, roughly half fixed-wing and half helicopters.
Future developments
Ukraine’s ability to innovate at a rapid pace is highly significant in this war. Being outnumbered and with less equipment and ammunition than Russia, with a smaller industrial base and arms industry, places Ukraine at a huge disadvantage. The support they have received from the West has helped enormously of course, by providing them with more advanced weapons systems than the Russians have available. But without the necessary ammunition for these weapons, Ukraine knows she cannot entirely depend on the West.
And that’s why innovation is so important. I’ve already mentioned aerial and sea drones. These are not just capable attack weapons against army and naval targets, but they can provide useful intelligence as well. Drones can return detailed images of battlefields, harbours, dockyards, airfields, movements of troops and equipment. As a result, military planners and troops on the ground are better informed and can make better decisions. Ukraine is good at this. They have also proved effective in limiting Russia’s ability, for example by downing the A-50 aircraft mentioned earlier. In war, as in business, government, science and almost every area of human endeavour, knowing the situation is an essential ingredient in planning and decision making.
Ukraine has not settled for what is already available or what her allies are able and willing to provide. There’s a long history of engineering excellence in Ukraine. In Soviet times they played a major role in developing aircraft, rockets, spacecraft and more.
So who has been most innovative in this war so far? Ukraine, without a shadow of doubt. And who has been most reactive so far? Most certainly that’s Russia. Two years in, the pattern is very clear. From the first days when Ukraine defeated Russian forces at Hostomel Airfield and destroyed a traffic-jam of tanks and supply vehicles heading towards Kiev, Ukraine has wrong-footed Russia again and again. The sinking of the flagship ‘Moskva’; the rapid advances east from Kharkiv; the dislodging of Russian forces from Kherson; damaging the Kerch Bridge (twice); the attacks on naval and air bases in Crimea; freeing the western Black Sea from Russian control; restarting grain shipments by a safe route; repeatedly destroying infrastructure in Russia; developing aerial, land and naval drones. Russia has been wrong-footed over and over again, having to react to Ukrainian innovations every time.
And finally, here are my longer term guesses. Ukraine will continue to innovate while Russia will continue to react. Ukraine will win this war, though it may take a lot more time, and will involve much more pain and sacrifice before victory is secured; the Kerch Bridge will be destroyed; Russia will be forced to leave Crimea, much as they had to leave Kherson and the western Black Sea; eventually, Ukraine will join both the EU and NATO; the Russian Federation will collapse militarily, economically and politically and may break up into a series of independent nations; and Vladimir Putin (if he survives) will end up as a captive, either held prisoner by his own people, or in the Hague.
There is cause for concern, but there is also cause for hope.
The war in Ukraine (and increasingly in Russia now as well) is on everyone’s minds – or certainly should be.
Part of an image from ISW
Below, I present a quote from today’s ISW report on the Russian attempt to conquer Ukraine. ISW is the ‘Institute for the Study of War’, an independent and influential American think-tank reporting every day as events unfold. But today they began their report with an overall assessment following two years of the war. Here’s the extract, with links to today’s full article and more at the bottom. There is cause for concern, but there is also cause for hope.
Ukraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite growing difficulties two years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Two years ago Russia launched a full-scale war of conquest to overthrow the Ukrainian government and forcibly install a pro-Russian regime firmly under Moscow’s control. Russian forces drove on Kyiv from several directions and struck at Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, and other Ukrainian cities. Russian President Vladimir Putin expected Ukrainians to welcome his forces or flee. Instead, Ukrainians fought for their freedom. They stopped the Russian drives on Kyiv and Kharkiv cities, stopped the Russian advance on Mykolayiv and Odesa cities, and fought Putin’s troops to a standstill along the rest of the line. Then, armed with experience, courage, determination, and growing Western aid, Ukraine struck back. Ukrainian forces drove the Russians from Kyiv and away from Kharkiv and liberated large swathes of territory in northeastern Ukraine. They liberated Kherson City and forced Russian forces off the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River. They ended the threat to Ukraine’s existence for the time.
But the Russians did not abandon their war aims or slacken their military operations. They remained in control of areas strategically and economically vital to Ukraine’s survival and of millions of Ukrainians whom they are subjecting to brutal Russification campaigns and deportation schemes. The Russians launched a missile and drone campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and cities that continues to this day. The Russians then ground through the eastern city of Bakhmut, taking losses so devastating that they prompted an armed rebellion against Moscow. The Russians also prepared themselves for the expected Ukrainian 2023 counteroffensive. The excessive hopes for that counteroffensive were not met. The war assumed a positional character, and the expected US assistance has been held up.
The situation today is grave, but it is far from hopeless. Russian forces have regained the initiative across the theater and are attacking and making gains. Those gains thus far are very limited and extremely costly. More Russian soldiers have likely died to seize Avdiivka than died in the entire Soviet-Afghan war. Ukrainians are weary and worried that American military assistance will cease, but they continue to fight with determination, ingenuity, and skill. Ukraine’s air defenders are dropping Russian planes from the sky while Ukrainian drone-and missile operators sink Russian ships. And Ukrainian soldiers are fighting for their positions against Russian “meat assaults” using drones in novel ways as well as the artillery, tanks, and traditional weapons of war available to them. The Ukrainian Air Force will receive its first F-16s in the coming months, and Ukraine’s European allies are racing to make good deficiencies in other war materiel. American military assistance remains essential—only the United States has the resources to give Ukraine right now what Ukraine most needs. If the United States, in the end, withholds that aid, then the situation can become very grave indeed.
But the war is far from over. Ukraine has not lost and there is no reason for Ukraine to lose. Russians are adapting for a long war effort in Ukraine, but they are not the Red Army hordes wrapped in the triumphant banners of World War II victories that Putin and his propagandists pretend them to be. The Russian military suffers from many flaws that Ukraine has learned to exploit. And the combined economic power of Ukraine’s allies is many times that of Russia.
Putin remains a deadly threat to NATO as well as to Ukraine, however. The Kremlin has been setting conditions to conduct hybrid warfare operations in the Baltic States and Finland for months and is currently engaged in such operations against Moldova. Putin’s aims remain the destruction of NATO as an effective alliance, the breaking of the tie between the United States and Europe, and the construction of a new global order in which Russia’s voice and power are dominant. The interests of America, Europe, and America’s allies in Asia and around the world are inextricably tied with helping Ukraine defeat Russia.
I hope those words from ISW encourage you, they certainly should. Ukraine had done astonishingly well in this horrible war so far, and will continue to do well providing she continues to receive sufficient help from her allies.
Tomorrow I plan to post again, this time with some of my own thoughts about the state of affairs in the war and the likely outcome. Meanwhile, here are some links to ISW and relevant pages.
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – Web homepage
Notes from bygone years – Many bygone Februaries Hint: Click on the thumbnails for larger images.
February 2023 (1 year before publishing this article)
The town hall, Marlborough
My shingles rash cleared up. On 16th, three of our grandchildren took part in a school production of the ‘Beauty and the Beast’ musical; they all did extremely well and the whole family was proud of them. I had a discussion with a friend about Gumstool Brook issues and then we chatted about possible changes to British parliamentary processes. Encouraged by the conversation, I wrote an article about my my ideas for change.
We explored (and enjoyed) the centre of Marlborough on 19th. It’s a lovely little town, full of interesting shops, cafes and restaurants. We walked into small courtyards off the long, wide Market Place in beautiful sunshine, quite unusual at this time of year.
JHM: I wrote about groundbreaking. – World events: – There was a huge earthquake causing damage and loss of life in parts of Turkey and Syria.
Our friend Kevin and his daughters visited us from Gamlingay in Cambridgeshire. We had a great weekend together, perhaps the highlight was visiting Bourton-on-the-Water and its model village. We also showed them round Cirencester and spent time at home chatting.
Debbie, Aidan and Sara came to stay for a weekend and we did a day trip to London on the train (an easy journey from St Neots). We packed a lot in, and one of the highlights was a boat trip on the Thames with a visit to Hamley’s toy shop and an open-top bus over Tower Bridge.
A few day’s later Donna and I flew to Madeira for a week’s holiday in a much warmer climate than the one in London!
I went to a meeting in Chepstow to share experiences and discuss house church. It was a friendly and enjoyable session with a small group, mostly from places around South Wales. I was the only person who’d travelled from the East of England and I was made very welcome.
We visited Anglesey Abbey with some friends. The new winter walk planted by the National Trust was quite new in 2004, but it’s nicely matured by now and is spectacular in February. The old house is interesting too, but the walled garden is one of our favourite places. It was an easy trip from St Neots but a long journey from Cirencester!
World events: Mark Zuckerberg launched Facebook for Harvard students, and there was a coup in Haiti.
This web page (click the image to enlarge it) was downloaded in February 1999 on my Unilever PC. It was part of Long Ashton Research Station’s website. I set up the web server and created the website in 1996 or thereabouts – very trendy in those days! The ‘Last changed’ date on the page shows it had not been edited since May ’97.
This is a little piece of advice I offered on a mailing list for Novell Netware managers. It’s about a utility I’d found useful while setting up and running Long Ashton‘s Netware 3.11 server. (The server allowed users to login to access file space over the local network from their PCs.)
Here’s our daughter Beth feeding a Macaw during a family visit to the Rode Bird Gardens in Somerset, an easy day trip from Yatton where we lived at the time.
We were living at 22 Rectory Drive in Yatton, between Bristol and Weston-super-Mare. Debbie was almost nine at the time, and Beth was four. Judy might already have been teaching biology at Cotham Grammar School by this time and would have started a new term. I was working at Long Ashton Research Station.
Our daughters were growing – Debbie was almost four, and Beth turned nine months. At Long Ashton Research Station I was working on oil palm pollination, training and supporting a biologist before he left for Papua New Guinea, as well as continuing research into pollination of temperate fruit crops.
This was a time when Judy and I were living in our flat at 20 Belmont Road, Bristol, collecting together whatever bits of furniture we could find. My grandmother had given us £60 and told us to buy a really good bed (in those days that was perfectly feasible). Judy’s parents gave us their old 3-piece suite, we bought a second hand dining table and chairs, and two new bar stools to use in the kitchen. It was a big step-up from our previous, furnished bed-sit!
World events: The crew of Skylab 4 returned to Earth after 84 days; the UK General Election ended in a hung parliament.
I had a letter from Judy, back at university in Aberystwyth while I was at Bath. We were newly engaged, and in the early stages of trying to fix a possible wedding date; from our point of view the sooner the date the better. But practical considerations introduced a lot of delays; at the very least we needed to be able to live in the same town!
This time, the letter was on the craziest paper I’ve ever seen. It must have been difficult to write on, and it was certainly difficult to read!
World events: The Boeing 747 ‘Jumbo Jet’ flew for the first time; and the Mariner 6 Mars probe was launched by NASA.
This is not strictly about my life, it’s about Judy, later my first wife. She and a friend were in the Guides in February 1964, and were planning a trip to Cardiff, this is the first page of Judy’s report on the trip.
She lived in Filton, north of Bristol, at the time. Most of their friends chose Bath as an easy option, but Judy and Val decided on the more adventurous journey to Cardiff.
I was given a Premium Bond on 24th, here’s a picture of it. I still have it somewhere (not sure where it is, though). As far as I know it hasn’t won me a prize yet, but perhaps I should check! I don’t plan to sell it back, it’s worth far more to me as a memento than the £1 face value. In 1959 £1 would have had the purchasing power of nearly £30 today.
World events: There were two plane crashes in the USA on 3rd, Buddy Holly died in one of them. The first weather satellite, Vanguard 2, was launched from Cape Canaveral.
My second term at junior school continued uneventfully as far as I remember it. The daily pattern began with taking off hats, scarves and coats and putting them away on hooks before making our way to the classroom to begin the day. Then our teacher, Mrs Hourihane, would call out our names and we each had to raise an arm when our name was called. The upstairs classroom had a large window overlooking the back garden and play area.
We were still living with my grandparents while Mum and Dad waited for a council house on the Beeches Estate. It was stormy, wet and cold, with snow around the 20th February. I was 7 months old at the end of February.
World events:President Truman announced that he would only meet Stalin if he visited Washington as a personal guest. The Soviet Union offered Norway a non-aggression pact and warned them not to join NATO.
Dad was busy in February and had many interests. There was the Boogie Woogie music world (he bought several more records this month), driving for his parents, the birth of a niece (Susan), the Air Training Corps (ATC), playing football, watching films at the cinema, working on the nurseries (the family business) and card games with friends and family, often Newmarket and usually for small amounts of money.
Journeys of Heart and Mind 
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