Forward look – Ukraine – 1

In some ways, predicting the future is a fool’s errand, we will always fail in the detail. But where there are clear trends we can make educated guesses, and these can inform our actions in the here and now.

A destroyed Russian column in Bucha (Wikimedia)

November 2024

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What began as a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a show of force aimed at decapitation of the state, the destruction of democracy, and the installation of a puppet administration didn’t work out well for Russia.

Larger view
(Mediawiki)

There are many sources of news, interviews, and comment covering events in Russia and Ukraine. There’s a list of some of these at the end of the article. The history of events so far is also well covered. But here I want to consider the future. What might happen next?

In some ways, predicting the future is a fool’s errand, we will always fail in the detail. But where there are clear trends we can make educated guesses, and these can inform our actions in the here and now. Looking ahead is hugely useful. Do I need to buy more bread? How long will the milk remain usable? How can I raise the money to start a new business? Where shall I go on holiday next year? How should we change our behaviour to reduce the impact of global warming? Even walking along a footpath involves thinking about the next step, avoiding obstacles. Whether we’re planning our next footfall, considering our next holiday or our next career step – trying to predict the future is essential. And remembering the past is part of the process as we ask ourselves, ‘Have we seen a situation like this before? What happened last time?’

So what is likely to happen next in the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Russian advances on the front line

The pattern of previous months has continued, Russia has pushed forward, little by little, day by day, sometimes in just one part of the front line, sometimes in several. But these advances have been mostly small, often just tens or hundreds of metres, sometimes a couple of kilometres. Looking at a large scale map it’s difficult to see any change at all, and sometimes Ukraine has pushed back. The bigger story, perhaps, is the cost to Russia in terms of men and materiel. They are losing around 40 000 men a month, along with large numbers of vehicles including tanks and armoured personnel carriers. Giving up ground slowly gives Ukraine many opportunites to destroy Russian troops and equipment.

The wet, muddy season that bogs down military vehicles has not yet fully materialised. Surely it will come soon. We may see a sharp drop in large scale movements by both sides; but there are other factors too. Russian losses in men and materiel have been savage, Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed large amounts of stored ammunition and equipment, army HQ facilities, fuel supplies, airfields, and military industrial facilities. All of this is slowing Russian forces down and making everything more difficult.

It seems likely that Russia’s creeping advance will stall, and perhaps even go into reverse. There are already some signs that this is already happening, both in Kursk and along the frontlines in Ukraine. Expect this trend to continue.

Presence of Korean forces

The evidence so far is that Korean troops are not likely to make much difference. They have not been very effective so far in Kursk where they’ve been deployed. At best, they may delay Russia’s need to find additional Russian troops.

Donald Trump as US President Elect

This is a difficult one to call. Trump tends to be erratic and therefore unpredictable. Perhaps the best we can do is wait and see. Ukraine will hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Technology

The Ukrainians have been very effective in developing novel solutions to seemingly intractable military problems; consider the sea drones, FPV warfare on the front lines, the development and use of very long range weapons to perform deep strikes on Russian facilities, the development of a cruise missile, even rumours of nuclear capability within a few months.

The trends here are suggestive. Russia has been innovative too, but on a much smaller scale. Certainly they have also made advances with FPV warfare and with electronic countermeasures, but to a greater extent than Ukraine they have depended on drawing down stocks of older and older equipment.

Russia seems to be slowly becoming less effective, Ukraine is rather quickly becoming more effective. Draw your own conclusions assuming this trend continues.

Power and energy supplies

Both nations have destroyed energy facilities. Russia has destroyed almost all Ukraine’s thermal power stations, and a large amount of hydro-electric power as well. Ukrainians will face a hard winter with insufficient electricity supply, depending now on nuclear plants and imports from the European grid.

Ukraine has seriously damaged Russian oil facilities, taking out many refineries and storage depots. It’s also likely that Russian oil pipelines will freeze this winter, and getting them back online will be very difficult and expensive to say the least. Even without Ukrainian strikes, Russian infrastructure of all kinds is in a poor state because of inadequate maintenance, and there were some notable failures last winter.

Russian economy

Sanctions have profoundly hurt Russia’s economy. Oil and gas revenues have been very hard hit, many skilled and unskilled industrial staff have died in the war leaving severe manpower shortages, the Rouble has fallen in value, inflation and high interest rates are making themselves felt. The future doesn’t look promising.

Unhappy and rebellious populace

It’s quite clear that the Russian people are becoming unhappy. By contrast, in Ukraine people are weary but morale remains high.

Russia can flip when the people are deeply unhappy; there have been similar situations before. In 1917 the autocratic leadership of the Czar brought both defeat in war and hunger to the population – there was a revolution. In 1991, the fall of the Soviet Union followed defeat in Afghanistan and restlessness at home. And in 2024 we see similar conditions building right now – the Russian Army may fail in Ukraine and there’s growing unrest as living conditions worsen and so many families have lost fathers, husbands, brothers and sons in Putin’s war.

We can only conclude that something similar may happen again. It’s not guaranteed, but nor is it impossible.

I might revisit this topic in future if I sense there are useful new points to be made.

See also:

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Image of the day – 86

What a place, rugged, very unusual and most impressive. It is deservedly famous! UNESCO declared it a World Heritage Site.

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What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye.

I’m posting an image every two days (or as often as I can). A photo, an image from the internet, a diagram or a map. Whatever takes my fancy.

Click to enlarge

After our first night in the holiday house at Portrush we were ready to explore in earnest. We drove to the Giant’s Causeway, and the photo shows how many people turn out to see this geological feature, even on a damp and breezy day. It is an incredible sight, with the famous hexagonal basalt columns taking on a multitude of forms. In places they are weathered down to appear like an almost flat pavement (the legendary giant’s work in building a causeway between Ireland and Scotland). In other places they rise vertically like organ pipes, and in yet others they are still capped at the top by overlying sediments deposited above them.

As with the sandy beaches at Portrush, the coast trends east-west and faces north. What a place, rugged, very unusual and most impressive. It is deservedly famous! UNESCO declared it a World Heritage Site, it is a Northern Irish National Nature Reserve, and it was voted the fourth-greatest natural wonder in the United Kingdom

The Wikipedia article listed below gives a good explanation for the volcanic origins of the ’causeway’.

See also:


Images from our Irish holiday 2024

For convenience, here’s a list of all the Irish holiday images:

28th Jul – Welsh Botanic Garden, Robin, Fishguard
29th Jul – Wicklow Mts, Glendalough, Powerscourt, Rose, Greystones
30th Jul – Liffey, Temple Bar, St Patrick’s Cathedral
31st Jul – Newgrange, Battle of the Boyne
1st Aug – Monasterboice, Mourne, Thrift, Window
2nd Aug – Spelga Dam, Hydrangea, Pipework, Lough Neagh
3rd Aug – Coagh, Springhill, Portrush
4th Aug – Beach at Portrush
5th Aug – Giant’s Causeway, Carrick-a-Rede, Portrush

Themed image collections

The links below will take you to the first post in each collection

Cirencester, Favourites, Irish holiday 2024, Roman villa

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Blast from the past… 24

Judy’s Dad turned 70-years-old on the tenth and she made him a cake decorated with emblems representing his life so far. We met at their house in Charlton Kings, Cheltenham, with her brother Frank and his family. (1994)


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 | Index | Next >

Notes from bygone years – November (Remember, remember).
Hint: Click images to enlarge them.

November 2023 (1 year before publishing this article)
Bristol Boxkite at Bristol Museum

We drove to Bristol to take Donna’s saxophone in for a service at Headwind and then spent the rest of the day in the city. We visited the museum and spent some time in the art gallery there. The main lobby still has the Bristol Boxkite hanging from the ceiling, reminding visitors of Bristol’s long and continuing contribution to the aerospace industry. We also walked down Park Street in the rain, investigated Bristol Guild, ate at a student cafe, and looked around the cathedral briefly. A good day out!

Erin (our cat) responded very well to steroid treatment and was fit and happy for the first half of the month, but towards the end of November she was becoming very unwell again and there was nothing more that the vet could do to help her.

JHM: I posted an article about Chuck Pfarrer and his maps of the Ukraine war; and another about Yara who lives in Kyiv. World events: An AI safety summit was held in the UK; and global average temperatures exceeded 2° C above pre-industrial times.

< Oct 2023 – Dec 2023 >

November 2022 (2 years before publishing)
Our Christmas cactus

The Christmas cactus was in great form in November, and a couple of Streptocarpus as well.

We had a visit from two friends from the St Neots area, Jim and Kevin. Jim’s wife, Pam, couldn’t make it this time, and Kevin is living on his own. I took them down to Cirencester and we visited the Corinium Museum. Jim was suitably impressed by the tesselated pavements, and Kevin (a fitter by trade) was intrigued by Roman lock mechanisms and the workmanship of these items.

JHM: I wrote an article about truth; and another about Clifford’s Tower in York. World events: The cryptocurrency exchange FTX went bankrupt; and   OpenAI released ChatGPT.

< Oct 2022Dec 2022 >

November 2019 (5 years before)
The fishing bear!

We were meeting at the Baptist Church in Bibury for a while to help encourage them with some changes and fresh ideas. I was involved in other meetings as well, and we were helping Donna’s Mum and Dad with decorating and getting about (though that was becoming harder).

I went to the election hustings where our local MP, Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown was booed and heckled a lot. I certainly wasn’t inclined to support him.

There was quite a lot of rain this month, and a dusting of snow as well. As a result there was some flooding. There’s a concrete bear (a garden ornament) on a wooden platform on the edge of Riverside Walk in Cirencester, and the bear is our water level gauge. As we walk past we see him sitting with his fishing rod on a dry platform (usually). But the photo shows him during the flooding, still clutching his rod and line.

World events: 11 000 scientists warned of a climate emergency; and there was a transit of the planet Mercury.

< Oct 2019Dec 2019 >

November 2014 (10 years)
Newforms Gathering

Donna was training as a teacher but was having some second thoughts because of unruly and difficult kids, she also wanted to spend less time running the Open Door Small Group since the teaching work gave her much less available time. Meanwhile I put in a claim for my state pension and we helped some friends move house.

John, one of the guys I’d met at Caffe Nero, was grasping spiritual truths really quickly. He was asking a lot of questions and understanding everything quite deeply. I found this very exciting and immensely encouraging.

I was meeting frequently with different people, there was the Open Door small group once a week, coffee shop meetings with some friends in town, and meetings with my friends Jim, Sean and Kevin rotating around our three homes. It was all good and seemed useful, but three such different groups! Another friend, Chris, was working through Revelation and we met for coffee to discuss this too.

I took my coffee shop friends Matt and Kev to the Newforms Gathering at Kidderminster at the end of the month (photo).

JHM: I wrote about a book I’d contributed to; and about the seal of Paul’s apostolic gift. World events: The IPCC  warned of ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible damage from global emissions of CO2; and the Rosetta spacecraft‘s Philae probe landed on Comet 67P.

< Oct 2014Dec 2014 >

November 2009 (15 years)
Edwardian dining table

I wrote a short note on the old family dining table we’d been using. It came originally from one of my Dad’s relatives and we’d used it when Judy and I lived in Yatton in the 1980s and 90s. Now we no longer needed it as we required something a good deal larger; we decided it should go to one of my daughters (assuming one of them wanted it).

We had new next door neighbours, Annette and Jerry moved into number 126. And there were major changes taking place in Unilever’s IT organisation that would affect us at Colworth where I was working.

JHM: I wrote about a video of the Space Shuttle; and about a meeting at Great Doddington. World events:  The Belgian Prime Minister became the first permanent President of the European Council; and NASA found water in a crater on the Moon.

< Oct 2009Dec 2009 >

November 2004 (20 years)
Family gathering

Mum and Dad booked two adjacent holiday villas at Ross-on-Wye and the whole family spent the weekend together. It was a lovely time, a great way to keep in touch, typical of Mum and Dad to organise something like this. They were both closer to the end of their lives than any of us could have imagined, so it’s a special memory for all of us.

Mum had no idea there was an alien spacecraft hovering above her head! Click the photo for a better view.

JHM: I posted meeting notes titled Butterfly and bird; and Water and stars . World events: George W. Bush was re-elected President of the USA; and the Orange Revolution began in Ukraine.

< Oct 2004Dec 2004 >

November 1999 (25 years)
New heating

We had a new gas heating system installed in our home – boiler, radiators, hot tank – everything. The preexisting system was old, decrepit and very inefficient, so high time to replace it.

On 4th November I flew to Schipol for Unilever business at Rotterdam.

And we had a new permanent house guest, Truffles the cat. She was a gift from friends who had more than enough cats, and Truffles preferred being a bit of a loner (though very affectionate with humans).

JHM: View the predecessor website at this time. World events: Australia decided to keep the Queen as head of state; and Kuwait revoked a 1985 law that granted women’s suffrage.

< Oct 1999Dec 1999 >

November 1994 (30 years)
At Ron’s 70th birthday

Judy was getting stronger after the problems with the attempted chemotherapy. She was out of danger and out of hospital too during November. She had lost her hair and was wearing a hospital wig, but new hair was already starting to grow and the wig would be only a temporary measure.

Judy’s Dad turned 70-years-old on the tenth and she made him a cake decorated with emblems representing his life so far. We met at their house in Charlton Kings, Cheltenham, with her brother Frank and his family.

World events: George Foreman became the world’s oldest world heavyweight champion; and the first ever internet audio webcast was made.

< Oct 1994Dec 1994 >

November 1989 (35 years)
Beth playing the piano

In November I bought a new video camera to replace the one stolen in August while were on holiday. This time I bought one of the new, higher resolution Hi-8 cameras. The photo of Beth was made from a VHS copy of a Hi-8 original.

Debbie was probably playing clarinet around this time, but I don’t recall if they ever attempted a piano/clarinet duet!

World events: Dial-up internet was introduced in the USA; while the East German communist government resigned and the Berlin Wall came down.

< Oct 1989Dec 1989 >

November 1984 (40 years)
Do they know it’s Christmas?
(Wikimedia)

I developed a DECO database for the Plant Science Division at Long Ashton Research Station to improve the processing and storage of bibliographic information.


World events:  The first Hackers Conference was held; and Band Aid (assembled by Bob Geldof) recorded Do They Know It’s Christmas?.

< Oct 1984Dec 1984 >

November 1979 (45 years)
Smallpox
(Wikimedia)

At this time I was still studying pollen tube development in apple and pear cultivars at Long Ashton Research Station.

World events: The Iran hostage crisis began; and Provisional IRA member Thomas McMahon was sentenced to life for assassinating Lord Mountbatten of Burma.

< Oct 1979Dec 1979 >

November 1974 (50 years)
Christmas bulbs

This month we had a bit of a breakthrough. My boss at Long Ashton, Ken Stott, put us in touch with a friend of his who was a bank manager; we were then offered good terms on a mortgage.

During the interview we had to hide the fact that Judy was pregnant, as her income had been taken into account.

John Jefferies and Son Ltd published their Christmas bulb offer (see the full details, but don’t place an order – they’ve sold out!)

World events:  The Arecibo Radio Telecope sent an interstellar radio message; and the International Energy Agency was founded.

< Oct 1974Dec 1974 >

November 1969 (55 years)
Nor’s 80th party

My Granny (Nor) celebrated her 80th birthday and the family gathered for photos and a short celebration at Uncle John’s house, 4 Tower Street, Cirencester.

In the photo – Back row: Cousin Tim, me, Uncles Bob, John and Dick, cousin Jeremy, and my Dad. Middle row: Judy, Aunty Betty (Bob’s wife), Pippa (Jeremy’s wife), My Mum, and Deirdre (Tim’s wife). Front row Aunty Jo (John’s wife), Nor, and Aunt Millicent (Dick’s wife).

World events: Sesame Street premiered on US TV;  and NASA launched Apollo 12, the second crewed mission to the Moon.

< Oct 1969Dec 1969>

November 1964 (60 years)
Our ‘dig’

Bonfire Night on 5th November was always an important calendar date when I was a child, and indeed right up until recently. It’s gradually been replaced by Halloween over the last ten or twenty years.

This triple Roman candle was the prize firework item in my parent’s back garden in 1964. I took a time exposure on a tripod while this one ran its course, and the photo came out remarkably well. I was 16-years-old and in the Lower Sixth at Cirencester Grammar School.

World events: NASA launched Mariner 4 to Mars; and France tested an atomic bomb underground in Algeria.

< Oct 1964Dec 1964>

November 1959 (65 years)
M1 in 1959

I was still in my first term at Cirencester Grammar School. My classroom was in the southernmost of the three Prefab Classrooms; the first year forms 1A, 1B and 1X had these three rooms, perhaps because they were a little way away from the classrooms for the older pupils.

It was an easy walk to the playground where the tuckshop was (it’s important to get important details sorted out as early as possible).

World events:  The first section of the M1 Motorway opened; and the MOSFET transistor was invented in the USA.

< Oct 1959Dec 1959>

November 1954 (70 years)
Trex Club

I was in my second year at Querns School, and half way through the first term. I think that we had Miss Hourihane as our teacher for this second year as well as my first year, although I can’t be sure about that.

I joined the Trex Club, Mummy helped and I remember being a bit puzzled by the whole process, frankly! If you’d like to join, here are the full details.

World events: The first Godzilla film premiered in Tokyo; and a four-kilogram piece of the Hodges Meteorite crashed through a roof injuring a woman.

< Oct 1954Dec 1954>

November 1949 (75 years)
EU flag

There’s little to say about this month, as in October I was 1¼-years-old, life went on, and we were still living in my grandparents house in Victoria Road, Cirencester. Dad continued working on the nurseries, part of the old family business.

World events:  Oil was discovered beneath the Caspian Sea; and Winston Churchill supported the idea of a European Union.

< Oct 1949Dec 1949>

November 1944 (80 years)
RAF Fauld
(Wikimedia)

Mum and Dad briefly talked about the idea of one day being married, and Dad bought a postcard of Cirencester Parish Church in the village shop in Coagh! They visited Uncle Samuel and Aunt Annie in Belfast on 23rd. On the 29th, Dad heard he was soon to be posted away from Northern Ireland, they were both very sad at this unwelcome news.

World events:   The German battleship Tirpitz was sunk by British  Lancaster bombers in Norway; and nearly 4,000 tonnes of ordnance exploded at an RAF storage site in Staffordshire.

< Oct 1944Dec 1944>

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First generation Star formation

Our Sun is a typical, smallish star, it has been around for some five billion years so far and probably has about another five billion years to go. No need to panic, the Sun is middle aged! Steady as you go.

Artist’s impression of early stars (Wikimedia)

Part 4 of a series – Emergence

< From gas and gravity to galaxies | Index | No later posts >

RequiresExtensive cold gas clouds
Results inStars producing elements up to iron, gas giant planets
EnablesNovae, Supernovae

Two features of the birth of a star system are important here, matter and energy. The first stars formed from the gradual collapse of clouds of cold gas consisting mainly of hydrogen with some helium and a trace of lithium. Gravity slowly pulls a gas cloud into an ever-shrinking volume, and slow, drifting motions lead to increasing rates of rotation as this shrinkage proceeds. Compression of gases always results in heating, so over a long period of time, a diffuse cloud of cold gas becomes a rotating mass of increasingly hot gas.

Sufficient collapse eventually causes the internal pressure and temperature to reach a critical point at which nuclear fusion becomes not just possible, but inevitable, and conditions then settle to a point where the fusion energy dramatically increases the core temperature and pressure, pushing outwards more and more strongly until the the gravitational collapse is stopped. The rotating, hot mass is a young star, converting hydrogen to helium.

Over time it settles down more and more to a stable state, though this lasts for a limited time, basically until no further hydrogen fusion is possible because there is insufficient hydrogen remaining. The length of time of that stable state is related to the mass of the star. Small, light stars process their hydrogen slowly. Large, very massive stars burn through their supply much faster. Although they have a great deal more to begin with, the temperatures and pressures at the centre are much higher so there is a faster reaction in a larger volume of core. That’s why large stars run out of fuel faster than small ones. These earliest stars are called Population III stars by astronomers, it seems they were usually very large and therefore short-lived.

Our Sun is much more recent, a typical, smallish star, it has been around for some five billion years so far and probably has about another five billion years to go. No need to panic, the Sun is middle aged! Steady as you go.

Eventually, as the hydrogen is used up, energy production falls and gravity can no longer be resisted, so the star shrinks and heats up further. As the internal temperatures and pressures increase, the star shrinks until the temperature at the core is sufficient to fuse helium. Once again, further gravitational collapse is halted by increasing core temperatures and this lasts until the helium supply is exhausted. Through a whole series of similar steps the star creates heavier and heavier elements all the way up to iron, but fusing atoms of iron absorbs energy so gravity wins out in the end. Small stars slowly cool and eventually become inactive and unchanging. Particularly large stars have a different fate.

We’ll consider those details in a future article.

See also:

< From gas and gravity to galaxies | Index | No later posts >

Image of the day – 85

This is the ‘Land’s End’ of the north – not a narrowing peninsula as in Cornwall, but here a long, straightish coast running east to west. A glorious, glorious place to stand and look and imagine.

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What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye.

I’m posting an image every two days (or as often as I can). A photo, an image from the internet, a diagram or a map. Whatever takes my fancy.

Click to enlarge

On the day after arriving at Portrush, we relaxed in the house, chatted, explored the town and its little harbour, and walked east along one of the beautiful beaches of golden sand. It was a chilly day, and cloudy, but I don’t think anyone wanted to go far after all the travelling of the previous day.

The land and seascapes here are glorious. A wide, long sandy beach is backed by dunes stabilised by vegetation as you can see from the image. This beach slopes down to the north until it meets the sea with the waves rolling in and breaking. A little way out in deeper water there’s a series of small barrier islands, some of them merely bare rocks. And beyond those, the open sea – the edge of the mighty North Atlantic.

On a clear day parts of Scotland are visible towards the east, while beyond the northern horizon there’s nothing but ocean until the cold Arctic waters east of Iceland. This is the ‘Land’s End’ of the north – not a narrowing peninsula as in Cornwall, but here a long, straightish coast running east to west. A glorious, glorious place to stand and look and imagine.

I have no hesitation in recommending Portrush as a holiday destination. It really does have something special for everyone – children, teens, adults young and old, nature lovers, for swimming, boating, walking – it’s all here within easy reach.

See also:

Images from our Irish holiday 2024

For convenience, here’s a list of all the Irish holiday images:

28th Jul – Welsh Botanic Garden, Robin, Fishguard
29th Jul – Wicklow Mts, Glendalough, Powerscourt, Rose, Greystones
30th Jul – Liffey, Temple Bar, St Patrick’s Cathedral
31st Jul – Newgrange, Battle of the Boyne
1st Aug – Monasterboice, Mourne, Thrift, Window
2nd Aug – Spelga Dam, Hydrangea, Pipework, Lough Neagh
3rd Aug – Coagh, Springhill, Portrush
4th Aug – Beach at Portrush
5th Aug – Giant’s Causeway, Carrick-a-Rede, Portrush

Themed image collections

The links below will take you to the first post in each collection

Cirencester, Favourites, Irish holiday 2024, Roman villa

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Gifts for building-2

Talk together about the gifts you see in one another, give one another feedback; most people are strong in one or more gifts.

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This article is an updated extract from my short book, Jesus, Disciple, Mission, Church (JDMC). The bite-sized piece below is roughly two percent of the book. This is the second part of the fourth forgotten way.

B – Activating the forgotten ways (continued)

2 – Encouraging one another
As you go out to reach the world together, put time aside to think and pray about what you are doing. Ask one another questions about how things are going. A weekend retreat now and then will help with this sort of planning and remembering. Don’t slip back from mission and become inward-focussed; it happens all too easily.

Reawaken one another to the gospel, are you drifting away from your first calling as mission-minded people? Avoid becoming lukewarm (Revelation 3:14-22), be wary of busyness and make mission an essential part of life. Mission-focussed prayer helps the six elements work together as they should, so keep mission at the heart of your prayer together. This will help everyone remember that Father stirs up mission and is involved in it. Jesus said we should pray for more workers in the harvest (Luke 10:1-4). Consider prayer walking areas where you’re connecting with people.

Jesus said, ‘I will build my church and the gates of Hades will not prevail against it’ (Matthew 16:18). So what sort of environment has he provided in which this building (or growing) will take place? History shows that whenever there has been major growth in mission there has always been apostolic leadership at work.

Discuss – How are you doing in these areas? Talk together about successes
and failures, ways you might do more or improve your focus. Pray  about it.

C – Identifying purpose

There will be a reason that your group exists, it is likely to be something to do with a shared passion which has been implanted in you by the Spirit for a specific purpose. Read Isaiah 55, and especially verse 11. Find out what you are passionate about, Papa will reveal it to you, and he will walk in it with you as well. Is it a particular function (such as helping the poor, feeding the hungry, or reaching the lonely)? Is it to reach out to a specific area or people group? Whatever it may be, talk about it, pray about it, and ask one another significant questions. Apostolic leadership will help this process.

It takes patience and commitment to discover purpose. Pray regularly, reflect and work together, ask outsiders who are familiar with what you do. Here are some useful questions… Why did the Lord create the group? What was the original dream? How has the group been used? What does the group do best?

Discuss or consider – What is your purpose? If you don’t yet know, agree to spend some time investigating.

D – Growing the gifts

Read and watch material that helps you develop an understanding of the five service gifts – they’re often called ministry gifts (Ephesians 4:11-12). Check out the JDMC section on The APEST gifts as a starting point. Talk together about the gifts you see in one another, give one another feedback; most people are strong in one or more gifts. Recognise that these gifts are not limited to experts, but are distributed throughout the body. If any of the gifts is significantly absent in your group, ask Jesus to bring the right people to join you. There’s no room here to examine all the service gifts in depth, but make time to understand them early.

Use the do it and consider it approach mentioned earlier. Provide books, DVDs and articles and encourage people to go to conferences and workshops. Find suitable networks. Explore ‘For more information’ at the end of this part of JDMC and use the material.

Be careful not to control anyone (Matthew 20:25-28), there’s no need for it and it undermines the life that Father has poured into the group. Instead, just inspire people and let them do what they do best. People don’t have power because it’s been granted by a leader but because it’s been granted by Jesus (Acts 1:8). Look for passion, ask questions, encourage experimentation. Free up time for all this, don’t over-programme, and aim to get the group dreaming.

Discuss or consider – Delegate five people from your group (or five small teams of people) to find out more about the five service gifts. One person or team to investigate one gift. Agree a time to report back, perhaps a week or two.

E – Sparking connections

Apostolic people link others together for positive action (Acts 11:19-30). Encourage them! They are starters, full of ideas, and inspire others. As catalysts, they get people talking and connect those with similar passions. They intuitively keep track of people and relationships. Sometimes they even network networks. If that sounds strange, just think of the internet. It’s called the internet because it networks company, government, and other networks. Apostles sometimes work at that sort of scale – Paul did.

People with an apostolic gift are widely connected and love to put the people they know in touch with one another. Sometimes the results are startling and unpredictable (in a good way). Movements really need people who can do this, it makes it far easier for good ideas to be shared widely and rapidly. A well-connected movement is an agile movement. Not everyone who sparks connections is apostolic, but all apostles are good at this.

scuss – Do you know anyone with this ability to connect people and
build networks? Could you do this too? Like all the gifts of service, this is
part of the church DNA that is in all of us to some degre

Discuss or consider – Do you know anyone with this ability to connect people and build networks? Could you do this too? Like all the gifts of service, this is part of the church DNA that is in all of us to some degree.

Develop and encourage each other

Bounce ideas off one another and keep thinking about the gifts of service. Try to work out where each of you is strongest and encourage any strengths (2 Corinthians 13:11). Tell one another, ‘I noticed you come alongside Steve when he was struggling. It seems to me you have some of the instincts of a shepherd. Well done!’, or, ‘I’m glad you reminded us to pray earlier, we needed to hear that.’ And above all, look for and encourage everyone who shows signs of going out to actively press forward with new things, laying foundations, making a fresh start, stirring people up, drawing out dormant gifts.

More sections of JDMC

IntroductionJDMC, what does it contain?Using JDMC – how to approach it

Working together in six waysIntro and Way 1Ways 2, 3 and 4Ways 5 and 6, six ways

Way One, Jesus at the centreJesus at centre 1Jesus at centre 2Jesus at centre 3

Way Two, Becoming disciplesDisciples 1Disciples 2Disciples 3

Way Three, Outward and integratedOutAndInt1, OutAndInt2

Way Four, Gifts for buildingGiftsForBuilding1, GiftsForBuilding2

Way Five, A living organismLivingOrg1, LivingOrg2

More sections will appear here…

The work of the SpiritIntroJesus, disciples, outwardGifts, living, community, help

Other church leadersIntro, bishops, eldersDeacons, pastors, priests

Last wordsThe end can also be the beginning

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Read the book

This was extracted from Jesus, Disciple, Mission, Church (JDMC), pages 17 and 18. Download the whole thing or read it online – GetJDMC.scilla.org.uk

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Image of the day – 84

It was good to have a whole week ahead of us. There would be places to see, plenty to do, great conversations, good food, and – as always on our family holidays – marvellous company!

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What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye.

I’m posting an image every two days (or as often as I can). A photo, an image from the internet, a diagram or a map. Whatever takes my fancy.

Click to enlarge

After exploring Springhill, we drove to Portrush on the north coast where we’d booked a large holiday house for a week. We were the last to arrive, and after the usual hellos and hugs we fell into chatting and laughing and organising our first meal together. It was great to gather round the table together, three generations of smiles and looking forward to our week relaxing together.

The photo shows all but two of us about to tuck into dinner, I’m behind the camera of course, and son-in-law Paz was behind me in the kitchen area, so you see a wife, two daughters, a son-in-law, and four grandchildren. The house was large enough for all of us, we need around six or seven bedrooms, a large dining table, plenty of cutlery, plates and mugs, and room for ten people to spread out. And we had that in spades!

Our first impression of Portrush was good, last time I was here was in the 1960s – almost a lifetime ago! It has changed a good deal, of course, and it’s grown much larger, but the harbour seems its old self, and the lovely sandy beach is just as I remember.

It was good to have a whole week ahead of us. There would be places to see, plenty to do, great conversations, good food, and – as always on our family holidays – marvellous company!

See also:

Images from our Irish holiday 2024

For convenience, here’s a list of all the Irish holiday images:

28th Jul – Welsh Botanic Garden, Robin, Fishguard
29th Jul – Wicklow Mts, Glendalough, Powerscourt, Rose, Greystones
30th Jul – Liffey, Temple Bar, St Patrick’s Cathedral
31st Jul – Newgrange, Battle of the Boyne
1st Aug – Monasterboice, Mourne, Thrift, Window
2nd Aug – Spelga Dam, Hydrangea, Pipework, Lough Neagh
3rd Aug – Coagh, Springhill, Portrush
4th Aug – Beach at Portrush
5th Aug – Giant’s Causeway, Carrick-a-Rede, Portrush

Themed image collections

The links below will take you to the first post in each collection

Cirencester, Favourites, Irish holiday 2024, Roman villa

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Is the West fumbling security?

I urge you to watch the video below, in which Jonathan Fink interviews … Dr Benjamin Tallis. It’s a fascinating, and I think important, conversation.

Image from Wikimedia

I never thought I would say this. But I approve of some of Boris Johnson’s actions. But let me be a bit more specific; I disapprove strongly of almost everything he did as Prime Minister, but there is one exception:

I like the way he stood up to Russia and clearly understood that enabling Ukraine to win and standing firm against Russia’s objectives and actions was necessary to Europe’s (and the UK’s) long term safety. Although that is all in the past now, we should still be analysing the European situation as it is today, and facing it by planning and acting wisely in our own and our neighbour’s best interests.

With that in mind, I urge you to watch the video below, in which Jonathan Fink interviews the researcher, political analyst, member of the RUSI think tank and author, Dr Benjamin Tallis. It’s a fascinating, and I think important, conversation. The thinking exposed by the interview is crucial to the survival of our way of life in a very dangerous world.

See also:

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Image of the day – 83

Although it’s clearly the home of relatively wealthy, upper-class people; the house also has a friendly and lived-in feel to it, not just a grand house, but a family home as well.

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What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye.

I’m posting an image every two days (or as often as I can). A photo, an image from the internet, a diagram or a map. Whatever takes my fancy.

Click to enlarge

Springhill is an old house and garden, not far from Cookstown. The house was built in Jacobean times, and latter extended and modified in Georgian style. The central part of the house is the remodelled Jacobean part, with large Georgian wings on both sides.

Donna and I drove to Coagh where we met Debbie, Steve, Aidan and Sara, took a quick look at my grandparent’s house, and visited Tamlaght Church where Mum and Dad were married. From there we separated again and Donna and I drove to Springhill to visit both the house and the grounds. I remember Mum talking about springhill, but I hadn’t visited it before. The photo of the dining room gives some idea of what it’s like inside. Although it’s clearly the home of relatively wealthy, upper-class people; the house also has a friendly and lived-in feel to it, not just a grand house, but a family home as well.

The house was built by the Conyngham family who came from Scotland having been granted land by King James I. The village of Coagh was reconstructed by a Conyngham, and when the family fell on hard times and the direct line died out, Springhill was presented to the National Trust which extensively restored it and has managed it ever since.

See also:

Images from our Irish holiday 2024

For convenience, here’s a list of all the Irish holiday images:

28th Jul – Welsh Botanic Garden, Robin, Fishguard
29th Jul – Wicklow Mts, Glendalough, Powerscourt, Rose, Greystones
30th Jul – Liffey, Temple Bar, St Patrick’s Cathedral
31st Jul – Newgrange, Battle of the Boyne
1st Aug – Monasterboice, Mourne, Thrift, Window
2nd Aug – Spelga Dam, Hydrangea, Pipework, Lough Neagh
3rd Aug – Coagh, Springhill, Portrush
4th Aug – Beach at Portrush
5th Aug – Giant’s Causeway, Carrick-a-Rede, Portrush

Themed image collections

The links below will take you to the first post in each collection

Cirencester, Favourites, Irish holiday 2024, Roman villa

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Recent changes

Another change in the last month or two is the link to my Bluesky account at the top of the right-hand column. Click on that for smaller, more recent updates on what I’m doing.

Unless you’re very new to Journeys of Heart and Mind (JHM), you will have realised a few things have changed. It’s good to keep things fresh, and it’s good to make improvements.

Larger view

The most obvious change (and the most recent one) is that I’ve removed the banner image that used to adorn the top of the site. I love that picture of Cirencester’s attractive, old Market Place; but it clutters the page and means readers have to scroll down even to see the title of any new article. I’ve taken out the logo as well, and I’m considering whether to remove the strapline. I’m not sure it adds anything of value.

Another change in the last month or two is the link to my Bluesky account at the top of the right-hand column. Click on that for smaller, more recent updates on what I’m doing. It includes a brief post every time I publish an article here on JHM, but most days there are three or four other items that are not major enough for an article here. They are often just personal, a sudden thought, something that caught my attention in the moment, or a photo I want to share.

There will be other changes as the weeks and months go by, but I don’t know what they will be at this point. My objective will be to simplify, make the site more user-friendly, take away what is no longer useful, and add new features as and when necessary.

I you are reading this, and you have ideas or suggestions, please leave them in a comment below. Thanks!

Did you know?

You can view earlier versions of JHM on the Wayback Machine (navigate through time using the banner). Or look for old versions of many other websites. See how things looked back in the day.

Useful? Interesting?

If you enjoyed this or found it useful, please like, comment, and share below. Send a link to friends who might enjoy the article or benefit from it – Thanks! My material is free to reuse (see conditions), but a coffee is always welcome and encourages me to write more often!