Category: Geographical

That dreadful war in Ukraine

There is cause for concern, but there is also cause for hope.

The war in Ukraine (and increasingly in Russia now as well) is on everyone’s minds – or certainly should be.

Part of an image from ISW

Below, I present a quote from today’s ISW report on the Russian attempt to conquer Ukraine. ISW is the ‘Institute for the Study of War’, an independent and influential American think-tank reporting every day as events unfold. But today they began their report with an overall assessment following two years of the war. Here’s the extract, with links to today’s full article and more at the bottom. There is cause for concern, but there is also cause for hope.

Ukraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite growing difficulties two years after the start of Russia’s
full-scale invasion. Two years ago Russia launched a full-scale war of conquest to overthrow the Ukrainian government and forcibly install a pro-Russian regime firmly under Moscow’s control. Russian forces drove on Kyiv from several directions and struck at Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, and other Ukrainian cities. Russian
President Vladimir Putin expected Ukrainians to welcome his forces or flee. Instead, Ukrainians fought for their freedom. They stopped the Russian drives on Kyiv and Kharkiv cities, stopped the Russian advance on Mykolayiv and Odesa cities, and fought Putin’s troops to a standstill along the rest of the line. Then, armed with experience,
courage, determination, and growing Western aid, Ukraine struck back. Ukrainian forces drove the Russians from Kyiv and away from Kharkiv and liberated large swathes of territory in northeastern Ukraine. They liberated Kherson City and forced Russian forces off the west (right) bank of the Dnipro River. They ended the
threat to Ukraine’s existence for the time.

But the Russians did not abandon their war aims or slacken their military operations. They remained in control of areas strategically and economically vital to Ukraine’s survival and of millions of Ukrainians whom they are subjecting to brutal Russification campaigns and deportation schemes. The Russians launched a missile and drone campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and cities that continues to this day. The Russians then ground through the eastern city of Bakhmut, taking losses so devastating that they prompted an armed rebellion against Moscow. The Russians also prepared themselves for the expected Ukrainian 2023
counteroffensive. The excessive hopes for that counteroffensive were not met. The war assumed a positional character, and the expected US assistance has been held up.

The situation today is grave, but it is far from hopeless. Russian forces have regained the initiative across the theater and are attacking and making gains. Those gains thus far are very limited and extremely costly. More Russian soldiers have likely died to seize Avdiivka than died in the entire Soviet-Afghan war. Ukrainians are weary and worried that American military assistance will cease, but they continue to fight with determination, ingenuity, and skill. Ukraine’s air defenders are dropping Russian planes from the sky while Ukrainian drone-and missile operators sink Russian ships. And Ukrainian soldiers are fighting for their positions against
Russian “meat assaults” using drones in novel ways as well as the artillery, tanks, and traditional weapons of war available to them. The Ukrainian Air Force will receive its first F-16s in the coming months, and Ukraine’s European allies are racing to make good deficiencies in other war materiel. American military assistance
remains essential—only the United States has the resources to give Ukraine right now what Ukraine most needs. If the United States, in the end, withholds that aid, then the situation can become very grave indeed.

But the war is far from over. Ukraine has not lost and there is no reason for Ukraine to lose. Russians are adapting for a long war effort in Ukraine, but they are not the Red Army hordes wrapped in the triumphant banners of World War II victories that Putin and his propagandists pretend them to be. The Russian military suffers from many flaws that Ukraine has learned to exploit. And the combined economic power of Ukraine’s allies is many times that of Russia.

Putin remains a deadly threat to NATO as well as to Ukraine, however. The Kremlin has been setting conditions to conduct hybrid warfare operations in the Baltic States and Finland for months and is currently engaged in such operations against Moldova. Putin’s aims remain the destruction of NATO as an effective alliance, the breaking of the tie between the United States and Europe, and the construction of a new global order in which Russia’s voice and power are dominant. The interests of America, Europe, and America’s allies in Asia and around the world are inextricably tied with helping Ukraine defeat Russia.

I hope those words from ISW encourage you, they certainly should. Ukraine had done astonishingly well in this horrible war so far, and will continue to do well providing she continues to receive sufficient help from her allies.

Tomorrow I plan to post again, this time with some of my own thoughts about the state of affairs in the war and the likely outcome. Meanwhile, here are some links to ISW and relevant pages.

Congratulations, Mr Putin.

You have stirred up a hornet’s nest of criticism and anger and you are going to get badly stung.

I’m impressed. Slowly, your horrid war in Ukraine has been slowly slipping out of public attention in the West. It’s not that people don’t care (we do), but newspapers and TV channels always focus on what will best attract readers and viewers. Ukraine has been slipping onto the inside pages for months.

Now, with one night of more than 100 drones and missiles hitting Ukrainian cities (the largest strike of the war so far by all accounts) you have brought your cowardly actions back onto the front pages.

Here’s the Guardian website this morning, for example:

So – Congratulations! Your war is front and centre in everyone’s awareness again – which is where it should be. ‘Good job’ as our American friends would put it.

Take a look at social media, where people are now clamouring for their governments to do much more to help Ukraine in every way possible. Wait for the newspaper editorials and letter columns tomorrow. You have just interrupted conversations about all sorts of other issues; and all eyes are swivelling, staring, and glaring at you again.

You have miscalculated very badly with this strike, hitting a maternity hospital, apartment blocks, several schools, a shopping centre. You have stirred up a hornet’s nest of criticism and anger and you are going to get badly stung. You are losing the war; you are losing public support at home; Russians as well as Ukrainians are in pain and despair at the loss of friends and family in your unnecessary and unjustifiable act of war. You have no sound arguments to support your actions, those you offer are morally corrupt, historically inaccurate, militarily inept, politically suicidal, simple distortions, or downright lies.

See also:

Chuck Pfarrer

Chuck’s maps are clear, informative, and up to date. He posts fresh material most days

Chuck is a retired US Army SEAL (amongst other things). He writes and speaks from a position of considerable knowledge on military matters generally. On his X account, he analyses available information about conflicts around the world, at present particularly focussing on events in Ukraine.

Chuck thinks through whatever information he can glean from online sources and conversations with his contacts, and very quickly transfers the information and his conclusions onto excellent maps. He publishes the maps on his X channel. The maps are up-to-date and informative, but sometimes contain minor errors, like misspelled place names. Given the fact that he builds these maps so fast, I think he can be forgiven these minor errors.

Chuck’s maps are clear, informative, and up to date. He posts fresh material most days (but not every day) and in addition to the maps he includes views and opinions of his own, brief reports on events happening on the ground, and comment on what he has read or heard on public news channels.

The Mryia Report podcasts frequently contain input from Chuck, too.

I normally dip in to Chuck’s X account daily to see what he has posted in the previous 24 hours, and I’m usually rewarded by a new map or two, a brief analysis of a recent event or description of a weapon system newly in use.

See also:

Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Every day , they collect and analyse data … , build an overall picture of what is happening … , and make the results available

ISW is a US think tank researching and reporting on conflicts worldwide. They issue daily bulletins on events in Ukraine and Russia as the war develops and continues. I’ve been reading these regular reports for a long time and greatly appreciate them.

There may be much more detail here than most people require; the reports are long and very thorough. One great thing to remember and appreciate is that ISW makes no attempt to predict outcomes of military actions or military planning.

They have no access to classified information, nor do they ask for it. They study publicly available sources only. These include free and commercially available satellite images, for example from NASA infra-red detectors which enable them to identify fires and explosions on the ground. They use videos published on YouTube and elsewhere, images on Facebook, X and so on from which they can sometimes geolocate events from the visible surroundings. They also assess public announcements by government and military spokespeople, media interviews and so forth.

Every day , they collect and analyse data of this kind, build an overall picture of what is happening on the ground, and make the results available in a daily digest with extensive text and maps. It’s an invaluable service.

Check out their website and the page on their Ukraine updates.

See also:

Yaroslava Antipina

Read Yara’s various projects for a refreshing rest from some of the other sources in the list

Yaroslava (Yara for short) lives in Kyiv. Like all the citizens of Ukraine she is living in a country at war – with all that entails. But Yara is not content to just sit idly by while her country and her city cope with missile and drone attacks. She has thoughts, opinions, and a delightful attitude to the arts, craft, music and traditions of her nation.

She writes about all these things and more, she takes and shares photos, usually very good and striking photos of the architecture, people, and the natural world around her. Sometimes she travels.

What I most like about Yara is that despite everything she brings a balanced and kind approach to a situation that is anything but balanced and kind. She provides news roundups, thoughtful comment, and even creative writing.

Find her on X, in greater depth at The Warcoffee Blog, on her daily news roundup War Coffee Daily, and her Public Letter (a new idea that I hope will continue after an initial trial).

Read Yara’s various projects above for a refreshing rest from some of the other sources in the list, sources that necessarily deal with the violence of war, or the more technical aspects of events.

See also: