Category: Politics

A bit of a hero

I’m only one person, so my effort will have very little effect. If everyone in the UK, Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and so forth took down their signs in the same way it would have a huge impact, a major, staggering effect.

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Image of the day – 187

What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every few days.

Mark Carney (click images to enlarge)

This is Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada and a bit of a hero of mine. Why? Because he stood firm in the face of some dreadful threats and actions from one Donald Trump (not a hero and unlikely to get his image on Journeys of Heart and Mind).

Mark Carney spoke eloquently and with composure and dignity when he addressed the Davos meeting on 20th January. During his speech he mentioned Václav Havel’s essay, The power of the powerless, about the notice in the greengrocer’s shop window. Hear the story in the video below, starting at just 49 seconds in.

This story inspired me greatly, as did Carney’s entire speech. If you have not yet heard it – I encourage you to watch the whole thing at your earliest opportunity! I wondered what I could do as an individual to ‘take the sign out of my window. Very little it seems… unless…

I began to see that there is something I can do, I could try to start a movement and here’s how that would work.

From now on, and until Donald Trump leaves the White House and the USA becomes a rational actor again, I’m taking down my sign. I’m going to make a strong effort to avoid buying goods or services from the USA.

I’m only one person, so my effort will have very little effect. If everyone in the UK, Europe, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and so forth took down their signs in the same way it would have a huge impact, a major, staggering effect. In a sense this has already started, US tourism from Britain and around the world has been collapsing. Flights to the USA are down, beaches in Florida are emptying, people are choosing other destinations as safer and less prone to border difficulties and excessive checks on passports and visas.

Hint: Go to the Google search prompt and type in ‘US tourism trends’. If you’re a US citizen the results make grim reading, with phrases like ‘sharp decline in international arrivals’.

Some people will follow me in a shopping ban, some will not, and the overall effect will be somewhere between negligible and catastrophic. Working together we will have an effect on the profitability of American businesses and the knock-on effects will reach citizens, politicians, decision makers and more.

This won’t affect my secondhand purchases, if I want a phone replacement I’ll choose a locally reconditioned one. Manufacturer’s profits come mainly from the sales of new items, not from second or third owners.

So I’m putting the USA on notice, I’m taking down my sign. Who is with me on this? Take down your sign too, either in this way or in some alternative way of your own devising. I’m not going to take the lies and tantrums any longer, I’m responding to the bully-boy tactics in my own way.

I will do my little bit quietly, peacefully, from now until I believe I can support the USA again as a friend and ally and a nation that is governed well and acts reasonably towards its friends and neighbours.

I’ll be making an exception wherever possible for US states like California, and others with a Democrat Governer or local Democrat state policies.

So no ban on California companies, but I will not buy goods or services from Texas at any price. Hard luck Starlink!

For this to work I need you, my readers to do two simple things:

  • Stop buying US goods and services, if possible pay special attention to anything from Republican states.
  • Spread the word

Let’s make this viral – send links to this article to friends and family, share the QR code, print copies off and leave them in public places, deliver them to your neighbours. Send copies to local (and national) newspapers. Just how far it can go? But do be responsible, don’t create unnecessary litter, don’t waste paper, target people wisely, politely and carefully.

And of course you don’t have to be British to take action, to all Europeans, Canadians, and other concerned individuals around the world, you are free to join in. It’s a case of the more the merrier. A lot of tiny actions can build up to something highly significant and impossible to ignore. Coffee shops don’t succeed by selling at high prices, they depend on getting large numbers of customers through the door. So come in, smell the coffee, and make a small but important difference. Just don’t buy your coffee from (or in) the USA!

I don’t hate US citizens, I have friends and relatives there. But nor do I like political pressure from the USA. It’s time to push back.

See also:

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Enough is enough
A low point in Greenland

A low point in Greenland

The photo shows a valley in Greenland, a valley is a low point, but Trump’s arrogant rudeness was another kind of low-point, and his falsifications were low-points as well.

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Image of the day – 186

What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every few days.

Greenland (click images to enlarge)

A huge rumpus has developed over Mr Trump’s fixation on owning Greenland. I’ve never been to Greenland, but I’ve seen many photos and read accounts by people who have visited or who live there. It’s a large island with hospitable inhabitants but a very inhospitable climate, mostly covered by an ice cap up to 3 km (2 miles) deep, and peopled by a rich mix of the hardy Inuit natives of the land and Danes. The photo shows a valley in Greenland, a valley is a low point, but Trump’s arrogant rudeness was another kind of low-point, and his falsifications were low-points as well.

The rumpus continued until Trump backed down, but in his Davos address and press conference Trump said many things that did not ring true in my ears and mind so I wanted to see a fact-check.

What follows was not written by me. It’s Chat GPT’s response to my request for the AI to read the transcript, fact-check the claims, and draft a 1000-word essay for me. I planned to edit it into a finished article to publish here, but I decided instead to publish the draft as is.

Read it below: ChatGPT as a guest author on my blog.

Here’s my request to ChatGPT:

Please examine President Trump’s Davos press conference, fact check his claims and draft a 1000 word essay based on your findings.

Feel free to put this prompt into an AI of your choosing, the output will vary between AIs and may change over time as well.

Fact-Checking President Trump’s Davos Speech and Press Conference

Introduction

In January 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a highly anticipated speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, and later faced questions at a press conference. His address was notable not only for its bold proclamation of U.S. ambitions — especially regarding Greenland — but also for a wide array of controversial and, in many cases, misleading or incorrect claims about international relations, economics, and domestic policy. This essay examines the context of the speech, fact-checks key assertions, and evaluates the broader implications of the rhetoric deployed.

A Controversial Theme: Greenland and U.S. Expansionism

Perhaps the most eye-catching aspect of Trump’s Davos address was his discussion of Greenland, the vast Arctic island that is an autonomous territory of Denmark. Trump reiterated his desire for the United States to acquire Greenland, labeling it “critical” to U.S. and NATO security. He also — for the first time in this campaign — publicly pledged not to use military force to obtain it. – Time

However, this position was controversial for multiple reasons:

  • International Law and Sovereignty: Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark; any transfer of sovereignty must be voluntary and negotiated. Danish leaders have consistently rejected selling or ceding control of the territory. – AP
  • Misrepresentation of Defense History: Trump implied that the U.S. “gave Greenland back” after World War II. In reality, the U.S. military presence in Greenland was based on agreements that affirmed Denmark’s sovereignty over the island while allowing the U.S. strategic access — but Greenland was not “returned” in the sense of ending U.S. ownership, because it was never wholly U.S. territory. – MediaITE
  • Strategic Importance vs. Imperialism: Trump’s framing of Greenland as a necessary bulwark against global threats was criticized as overly nationalistic and potentially destabilizing for NATO unity. European leaders stressed sovereignty and peaceful cooperation. – Guardian

Although Trump’s explicit rejection of military force was welcomed by markets and some commentators, the overall push was seen as a diplomatic provocation rather than constructive strategy. – Time

Misleading and False Claims

Beyond Greenland, Trump’s remarks included a number of statements that were factually inaccurate or misleading. Fact-checkers from multiple outlets documented significant issues:

1. NATO Contributions and Benefits

Trump characterized NATO as a burden on the United States, asserting the U.S. “never got anything” out of the alliance. This framing ignores both measurable benefits and longstanding structural agreements:

  • The U.S. does bear a large share of NATO defense spending, but it does not pay 100% of it; in 2024, U.S. defense spending comprised roughly 60-plus percent of total NATO expenditure. – NewsChannel3-12
  • NATO membership delivers both strategic security for the U.S. and economic and political stability among allies, which benefit U.S. interests. – NewsChannel3-12

2. Wind Energy and China

Trump derided renewable energy efforts, particularly wind power, and claimed he couldn’t find evidence of wind farms in China. This is demonstrably false:

  • China ranks first in the world in installed wind power capacity, with roughly 40–45 percent of global capacity. – Reddit

Such misstatements underscore pervasive misunderstandings about energy infrastructure.

3. Trade and Economic Claims

Trump’s economic narrative included assertions about U.S. trade imbalances and export markets that were incorrect:

  • He claimed the European Union does not buy American farm products and automobiles, implying that U.S. exports are negligible. In fact, the EU is a major market for U.S. agricultural exports and is among the top vehicle export destinations for U.S. manufacturers. – WRALNews

Additional claims about trade deficits — especially exaggerated figures about China and Canada — were similarly misleading when evaluated against official trade statistics. – WRALNews

4. Election and Historical Falsehoods

During the speech, Trump reiterated the claim that the 2020 U.S. presidential election was “rigged.” This assertion has been conclusively debunked by multiple courts, election officials, and independent fact-checkers. – HindustanTimes

Furthermore, in discussing geopolitical conflicts, Trump mischaracterized some historical events (e.g., conflating diplomatic tensions or border disputes with actual wars). – MediaITE

Economic Performance and Domestic Policy

Trump also touted U.S. economic performance under his administration, claiming low inflation and high growth. While inflation has been reduced from peaks seen earlier in the decade, some of Trump’s accompanying statistics — like headline growth figures and the scale of investment commitments — were overstated compared with independent economic data. – NewsWeek

His framing of U.S. economic strength was intended to contrast with his characterisation of the previous administration, though key metrics show that inflation, growth, and market performance fluctuate due to broader global and domestic conditions, not solely presidential policies. – NewsWeek

Rhetoric, Reactions, and Implications

Trump’s Davos speech was met with a mixture of shock, criticism, and, in some quarters, applause for his combative posture. European leaders, especially from Denmark and the EU, expressed concern about his Greenland remarks and his critiques of European energy and economic policy. – Guardian

Financial markets reacted positively to the pledge not to use force in pursuing Greenland, but broader geopolitical analysts warned that pushing such rhetoric in a forum dedicated to economic cooperation risked undermining U.S. credibility. – Time

Conclusion

President Trump’s appearance at the 2026 World Economic Forum was consequential — not just for its content but for the contradictions and controversies it generated. While his call for U.S. leadership and economic strength resonated with some domestic audiences, the fact-checking analysis reveals that many claims were inaccurate, misrepresented complex facts, or repeated debunked narratives. The emphasis on territorial ambitions like Greenland, along with misstatements about trade, energy, and alliances, highlights the challenges of integrating nationalist and transactional rhetoric into forums predicated on multilateral cooperation.

In sum, the Davos speech stands as a stark example of how high-level international engagement can be shaped as much by political theatre and domestic audience signaling as by policy substance — and the importance of grounding such speeches in verifiable facts if they are to foster trust and constructive global dialogue.

See also:

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Enough is enough
Truth still matters
A conversation with ChatGPT

Cease fires and talks

Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.)

Forward look, ukraine – 6

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Larger view
(Wikimedia)

March 2025

Representatives of the American president, Donald Trump, have been talking with both Russian and Ukrainian representatives in an attempt to end the war. Trump repeatedly claims, ‘This war would never have happened if I’d been president’, and further claimed that he’d be able to end it in 24 hours once he was in office. The first claim cannot be tested, but no evidence has been presented as to how the war might have been averted. And the second claim was, at best, wishful thinking; Trump has had a lot longer than 24 hours but there’s still no sign of the war ending any time soon.

What is being discussed between the USA and Russia and between the USA and Ukraine is still only partly clear, but the best we can hope for in the near-term is some kind of Black Sea ceasefire and a 30-day stoppage of attacks on energy systems. It’s hardly the kind of complete ceasefire (‘end the killing’) that Donald Trump promised us!

But when you look a little deeper there are issues that would be obvious to anyone who is a good negotiator. Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.) And Russia will wriggle and squirm endlessly to avoid an energy ceasefire. Putin wants to seem agreeable to the ceasefire to appease Trump, but he doesn’t want to actually sign on the dotted line because he thinks he’s winning the energy battle. (He’s not.) Nor are Trump’s offers to Putin entirely within his gift. No NATO countries involved? No Western troops in Ukraine? No more weapons or ammunition for Ukraine? Sorry Mr Trump, Europe will not necessarily do your bidding over this. French and British forces might be there sooner than you think. Macron is making announcements as I write; you cannot make a gift unless you’re holding it in your hand. (And you’re not holding it.)

What will happen next?

That is, of course, the big question. I can give my thoughts, but nothing is certain.

Let’s start with what we know.

  • If Putin is winning this war, he doing it in a very curious way. So far, his initial take-over bid was stopped and then substantially pushed back by Ukraine. He’s lost 900 000 troops, killed or seriously wounded. He’s lost the vast bulk of his armoured vehicles, tanks, trucks, ships in the Black Sea, artillery, radar equipment, anti aircraft missiles, and many aircraft and helicopters.
  • Energy infrastructure has been severely damaged in both countries, particularly electrical systems in Ukraine; and oil and gas production, transport, refining and storage facilities in Russia.
  • Militarily, Russia has been seriously weakened while Ukraine has become stronger. Ukraine develops and manufactures cruise missiles and drones that are flying further and further into Russian territory.
  • Ukraine is innovating rapidly, and faster than Russia. This is noticeable in the first person view (FPV) drone technology, but also in the longer distance technologies and in sea-drones.
  • Ukraine has focused on specific kinds of target to great effect, taking out much of Russia’s air defence, enabling a greater proportion of attacks to get through undetected.
  • There are clear signs that Ukraine is getting the upper hand along the lines of contact. For a long time, Russia has been making very slow, but continuous progress (though at very great cost). Recently there have been signs that Ukraine might get the upper hand, Russian progress has slowed almost everywhere, stalled in some places, and Ukraine has been able to take back some ground in several areas. This gadual reversal of Russian success will likely become faster as the summer proceeds.
  • The Russian economy is in a really poor state and slowly getting worse, not better. This too could well be a trend that will become a fatal crash within the next twelve months or so.

In terms of Trump’s efforts to curry favour with Russia and crush Ukraine – because that is how I interpret what is going on – there is an elephant in the room. It may not be a truly heavyweight elephant, but Europe (and I include the UK here, as well as other allies like Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea) has no wish to stop supporting Ukraine. Continued supply of weapons, ammunition, electricity and financial help from Europe and her friends may just be something Trump cannot influence very much. He can make offers and promises to Putin, but can he force the rest of us into line? I have no doubt he’ll try, but at the same time I very much doubt he’ll succeed.

In summary

The short term prospects for Ukraine are more pain, more suffering, and significant struggles to deal with both Russia (miltarily) and America (politically).

But I do believe the longer term prospects are much brighter. Ukraine can become an important part of Europe, a member of the EU, with a strong economy and strong armed forces, contributing culturally, economically and acting in concert with other states bordering Russia as a bulwark against Russian expansionism.

Slava Ukraini! Heroyam slava!

See also:

Here are just three of the many sources of information out there.

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Trump, Vance and fruit

Did Jesus discuss politics with his followers? Most certainly he did! ‘Whose head is on this coin’, he asked. ‘Well then, pay Caesar his due, but make sure to pay the Almighty his due as well.’ And that’s just one example of many.

That meeting with Zelenskyy (Wikimedia)

Thinking out loud – 3

Oval Office
(Wikimedia)

There is a view out there that religion and politics shouldn’t be mixed. We don’t want to offend one another and politics is likely to be a topic that people feel strongly about – so let’s avoid unnecessary divisions.

I’m all in favour of unity, but I have two issues with that thinking.

The first issue is the word ‘religion’. Do I follow a religion? I sincerely hope not! I do my best to follow Jesus, he’s the best example of living well that I have. He taught his followers by example, by argument and by his loving heart. That’s not religion, it’s simply the practice of following the best example!

The second issue is the word ‘politics’. Following Jesus, if it means anything, means following him in every aspect of life. So unless we define politics as somehow not being an aspect of life, it follows that we should include it as just another part of life in which we can follow Jesus. Did Jesus discuss politics with his followers? Most certainly he did! ‘Whose head is on this coin’, he asked. ‘Well then, pay Caesar his due, but make sure to pay the Almighty his due as well.’ And that’s just one example of many.

So with those two points cleared up, what about Trump, Vance and fruit?

Trump and Vance

Whatever you think of the politics, and whatever you make of their words, I’d like you to look deeper than that – please consider their actions as well, and particularly consider the motives and intentions that led to the words and actions. We’ll come back to those in a moment, but first let’s look at fruit.

Fruit?

Yes. Fruit.

Paul wrote 2000 years ago about the fruit of the Spirit of Jesus working in the hearts and minds of people following Jesus. Here’s how that works. When something grows (a young plant, a young animal, a child) there is always some kind of fruit. An apple tree will always produce apples, more and more in maturity as it reaches full size. A young animal will develop attitudes to prey and predators that will enable it to survive and produce offspring. A child will develop attitudes and actions based on those of parents, siblings, teachers and so on.

The fruit of Jesus’ Spirit working in his followers is described by Paul in Galatians 5:22-25. It’s fruit, it develops as you grow. It ripens with maturity, it has fragrance and flavour. Here are Paul’s words:

The fruit of the Spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness and self-control. Against such things there is no law.

Back to Trump and Vance

Love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness, faithfulness, gentleness, self-control. How much of those attributes have you noticed in the words and actions of the USA’s President and Vice-President?

If you want a specific example, think of the way they treated Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office recently.

Here are the opposites of the fruit in Paul’s list – hatred, gloom, impatience, unkindness, unfaithfulness, harshness, out-of-control. If the first list is the fruit of the Spirit of Christ, where does the opposite fruit come from?

See also:

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Holes in a wall

When I was young, nobody took the trouble to fill these holes again, but these days they’re probably protected as historical curiosities.

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Image of the day – 139

What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

Click to enlarge

Some of you might know what these two, rectangular holes are for, but many might not. Holes like these can be found all around Cirencester, usually along the main roads leading into or out of the town.

They date back to the dark days of World War Two when Britain faced invasion by German forces. The invasion never took place because Germany was unable to defeat the RAF and air dominance was essential before the invasion fleet could be launched.

The holes in these walls, if you haven’t already guessed, are sniper or machine gun positions to enable the defenders to fire on German forces from behind the temporary safety of masonry. One round from a German tank would been more than enough to destroy the wall, of course.

When I was young, nobody took the trouble to fill these holes again, but these days they’re probably protected as historical curiosities. A reminder if one is needed, that war can come visiting at short notice (as in Ukraine) and that no nation should assume it will always be safe.

See also:

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Forward look – Ukraine – 4

The end may come during 2025 or 2026, but it might also happen very much sooner. It’s likely to be a surprise and it will almost certainly end the war, with Ukraine being the survivor.

January 2025

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Larger view
(Wikimedia)

It’s time for another look at the war, to see where things stand in January 2025 and where they may go next. Donald Trump has now taken office as President of the USA and the only thing we can be sure about is that his policies for America’s actions will be different from those of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, in Russia, there are economic, political and military considerations in play and all of them seem problematic for Vladimir Putin (to say the least).

Ukraine continues to take a battering but resistance remains stubborn and determined. For both the population and the armed forces a combination of tiredness, resolve and good morale are all clearly detectable. They are a long way from giving up and a long way from being defeated.

The fighting

Russia and Ukraine have very different approaches to events on the frontline. Putin has demanded a heavy-handed approach, losing an enormous number of troops and huge quantities of equipment, currently throwing wave after wave of infantry at well defended Ukrainian positions (and now some North Korean infantry as well). Russian forces have been ignoring the rules of war, sometimes shooting prisoners, using chemical weapons and so forth.

Ukraine has lost men and equipment too, but on a far smaller scale. Their stubborn resistance along 1200 km of front line has prevented Russian forces from breaking through and although the forward momentum has been in favour of Russian forces it has also been momentum of a very slow, creeping kind. Ukraine has acted entirely within Geneva Convention rules.

On the missile and drone warfare there is a similar difference in approach between the two sides. Russia has targeted residential areas of towns and cities, even hospitals, schools, shopping centres and cultural treasures along with critical infrastructure, especially electricity power stations and local distribution transformers. Again, most of these targets are illegal under international laws and agreements, Russia being a signatory to many of them.

Ukraine has focused on military targets – command and control centres, airfields, naval dockyards and ships, army training camps, troop concentrations, oil production and storage facilities, arms factories, ammunition storage facilities, radar equipment, bridges, railways and roads feeding military traffic to the frontlines.

The effects so far

There have been small, creeping movements along the frontline, mostly in Russia’s favour, although the trend has been slower and slower over the past month and now Ukraine is beginning to make small advances as well from time to time, usually by means of well-planned and well-executed actions when good opportunities arise.

Economic considerations

The Russian economy is showing serious and dangerous strain. The rouble has lost a lot of value against western currencies. Interest rates are high as the central bank has used this as an effective tool to restrict inflation; but the increased borrowing costs have killed industrial investment. Unemployment is very low and Putin has claimed that as a great success, though the reason for it is that military casualties are in excess of 800 000 men and even larger numbers have fled the country to avoid being sent to the frontlines. Most industries are seriously short-staffed; skilled professionals are particularly hard to find.

By defeating Russia in the Black Sea, Ukraine has been able to continue her grain exports whereas Russia’s income from sales of oil and natural gas have fallen due to western sanctions as well as Ukrainian strikes on depots, production and transport facilities.

Military production

Russia is still producing new drones, missiles, ammunition, aircraft, tanks and other armoured vehicles, but at a slower rate than the losses inflicted by Ukraine. Stocks of all these essential items have therefore dwindled away and now appear to be in short supply.

Ukraine has also ramped up production of military hardware and consumables and is now in a position to continue fighting even if supplies from the West diminish.

Innovation

Russia has made progress with drone development, and has recently been making more use of FPV drones controlled via optic cable since this cannot be blocked by radio jamming.

However, Ukrainian production and scale of use of advanced drones far outstrips Russian developments. Recently, Ukrainian sea drones have been fitted with both machine guns and ground to air missiles and have downed helicopters sent to destroy them. This is a major new technological achievement.

And the future?

The balance has been shifting in Ukraine’s favour in so many ways, and the best predictions suggest the Russian economy will collapse, most likely slowly, then suddenly. It’s impossible to know precisely when ‘suddenly’ will come, but it will be devastating when it does. And economic collapse will likely mean military defeat and political upheavals as well.

My opinion based on what I have read and heard, is that the end may come during 2025 or 2026, but it might also happen very much sooner. It’s likely to be a surprise and it will almost certainly end the war, with Ukraine being the survivor.

Militarily too, Ukraine seems to be getting the upper hand. I think it’s very likely that things will go more and more Ukraine’s way in this war in the next few months. There are many unknowns of course, but on balance I expect Russia to eventually lose the war, probably through a combination of economic and military failure, and quite possibly by a Russian decision to withdraw from the conflict altogether. This could happen either as a decision from Putin following pressure internally or by a change of government. These details are not remotely predictable, however.

We in the West should do our part by continuing to apply political and economic pressure, and by continuing and extending our support for Ukraine.

See also:

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War, truth and persuasion

With Western politicians and news sources wavering seemingly randomly due to many other considerations and distractions, and Russian misinformation sometimes hard to detect and assess, we need to look elsewhere.

Enlarge

Claiming that something is true does not make it so, no matter how large the font.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was almost three years ago, and so far Russia is no nearer to completing its ‘Special military operation’ than when the first Russian troops and vehicles illegally entered the nation it had promised to protect. But neither has Ukraine managed to drive Russia out of its territory completely. It’s not a ‘stalemate’, those are possible in chess, but not in war: there are too many interacting factors for long term stability in a war. Ukraine struggled to hold on during the long period when USA support was stalled by the Republicans, but since then Ukraine has been getting stronger and Russia weaker as their loss of troops, equipment, and funding have gradually become more and more significant issues.

But one important factor to consider is perceived knowledge about events. With Western politicians and news sources wavering seemingly randomly due to many other considerations and distractions, and Russian misinformation sometimes hard to detect and assess, we need to look elsewhere if we want to be informed by truth and reality.

Places to go for good information include the many commentaries about current events from individuals on YouTube, blogs, podcasts and similar media. It’s true that many of these may be biased one way or another, but on the whole it’s easier to identify these biases than it it with large organisations or sources funded by companies or governments. There are fewer mixed messages; individuals are usually clearly on one side or the other, and after weeding those out, the remainder tend to be more impartial.

Take a look at this YouTube video on Silicon Curtain as an example. See how photos and information about the Russian ‘shadow’ tanker fleet are used to reach and influence the right people. Notice how the international company Unilever was encouraged to pull out of Russian business by evidence-based and well targeted information (11 minutes into the video). How much more effective we can be when we think things through carefully rather than just shouting at one another in anger.

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Forward look – Ukraine – 2

Ukraine continues to devise and manufacture novel equipment including drones that can avoid jamming over the final part of their trajectory by tracking the target and striking it without manual control.

A destroyed Russian column in Bucha (Wikimedia)

DECember 2024

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Larger view
(Wikimedia)

There are many sources of news, interviews, and comment covering events in Russia and Ukraine. There’s a list of some of these at the end of the article. The history of events so far is also well covered. But here I want to consider the future. What might happen next?

Russian advances on the front line

Russia is still making small gains in the east, but at huge cost in men and materiel. But Ukraine has sometimes been able to make small advances too, and I think there’s a slow trend detectable here. The to and fro actions continue to be small scale, and although the bulk of the movement is still in favour of Russia, my feeling is that it’s getting harder for them and perhaps easier for savvy, well-led and well-equipped Ukrainian forces.

One reason for this, I think, is that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks inside both the occupied territories and into Russia itself, have focused heavily on military targets. Russian ammunition dumps, airfields, critical road and rail links, arms factories, oil refining and storage and so on are seriously disrupting supplies to the Russian army. Also, Ukraine continues to devise and manufacture novel equipment including drones that can avoid jamming over the final part of their trajectory by tracking the target and striking it without manual control; mine laying robots that can destroy Russian tanks in places thought to be mine-free; and the relatively new Peklo long range jet-powered missile-drone (just three examples).

Russian air-power is floundering, Ukraine has forced Russia to move its aircraft further from the conflict zone, reducing their ability to drop glide bombs or support ground operations.

Presence of Korean forces

The Koreans still appear to be fairly ineffective. Perhaps due to a combination of language difficulties, poor training, and unsatisfactory leadership.

Donald Trump as US President Elect

Several things suggest Trump may be less helpful to Russia than we may have expected. Putin might have miscalculated by publishing nude images of Melania on Russian state TV. It’s becoming more likely that Putin will, in the end, lose the war and, indeed, power; and Donald Trump is unlikely to want to be associated with any kind of loser. If Ukraine comes out on top, Trump might like to be seen to have helped . I think this is something to watch closely going forward.

Technology

I mentioned this above. Russian industry is struggling to produce sufficient war materiel, but Ukraine has been ramping up, domestically producing ever larger quantities of shells, drones, missiles and so forth. Some of her European allies have been doing the same (Poland and the Baltic States in particular).

Russian economy

Sanctions continue to throttle Russia’s economy. Manpower shortages, the fall in the Ruble’s value, inflation and high interest rates are seeing accelerating changes. Russian economists cannot fix these issues, and the country is attempting to reduce rampant inflation while increasing the money supply. How far off is disastrous economic collapse?

Unhappy and rebellious populace

It’s quite clear that the Russian people are becoming very unhappy, particularly with the coldest part of the winter coming soon. By contrast, in Ukraine people are weary but morale and determination remain high. I mentioned this in November too, but what I didn’t mention then is the restlessness and churn amongst the wealthy business owners, politicians, and the top people in the military. We saw with Prigozhin how frustration and dissatisfaction can lead to revolt. Challenges like this will surely happen again. They will not always fail.

The assassination in Moscow

The remotely controlled explosion in Moscow that killed a Russian general and a member of his staff will have caused some anxiety among Russian leaders, both military and political. And it’s yet another blow to Putin’s prestige following the loss of control in Syria. It also makes it clear that Ukraine will not tolerate war crimes committed against their forces and are capable of acting in the very heart of Russia.

< Nov 2024 | Index | Dec 2024(2) >

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Forward look – Ukraine – 1

In some ways, predicting the future is a fool’s errand, we will always fail in the detail. But where there are clear trends we can make educated guesses, and these can inform our actions in the here and now.

A destroyed Russian column in Bucha (Wikimedia)

November 2024

< No earlier post | Index | Dec 2024 >

What began as a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a show of force aimed at decapitation of the state, the destruction of democracy, and the installation of a puppet administration didn’t work out well for Russia.

Larger view
(Mediawiki)

There are many sources of news, interviews, and comment covering events in Russia and Ukraine. There’s a list of some of these at the end of the article. The history of events so far is also well covered. But here I want to consider the future. What might happen next?

In some ways, predicting the future is a fool’s errand, we will always fail in the detail. But where there are clear trends we can make educated guesses, and these can inform our actions in the here and now. Looking ahead is hugely useful. Do I need to buy more bread? How long will the milk remain usable? How can I raise the money to start a new business? Where shall I go on holiday next year? How should we change our behaviour to reduce the impact of global warming? Even walking along a footpath involves thinking about the next step, avoiding obstacles. Whether we’re planning our next footfall, considering our next holiday or our next career step – trying to predict the future is essential. And remembering the past is part of the process as we ask ourselves, ‘Have we seen a situation like this before? What happened last time?’

So what is likely to happen next in the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Russian advances on the front line

The pattern of previous months has continued, Russia has pushed forward, little by little, day by day, sometimes in just one part of the front line, sometimes in several. But these advances have been mostly small, often just tens or hundreds of metres, sometimes a couple of kilometres. Looking at a large scale map it’s difficult to see any change at all, and sometimes Ukraine has pushed back. The bigger story, perhaps, is the cost to Russia in terms of men and materiel. They are losing around 40 000 men a month, along with large numbers of vehicles including tanks and armoured personnel carriers. Giving up ground slowly gives Ukraine many opportunites to destroy Russian troops and equipment.

The wet, muddy season that bogs down military vehicles has not yet fully materialised. Surely it will come soon. We may see a sharp drop in large scale movements by both sides; but there are other factors too. Russian losses in men and materiel have been savage, Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed large amounts of stored ammunition and equipment, army HQ facilities, fuel supplies, airfields, and military industrial facilities. All of this is slowing Russian forces down and making everything more difficult.

It seems likely that Russia’s creeping advance will stall, and perhaps even go into reverse. There are already some signs that this is already happening, both in Kursk and along the frontlines in Ukraine. Expect this trend to continue.

Presence of Korean forces

The evidence so far is that Korean troops are not likely to make much difference. They have not been very effective so far in Kursk where they’ve been deployed. At best, they may delay Russia’s need to find additional Russian troops.

Donald Trump as US President Elect

This is a difficult one to call. Trump tends to be erratic and therefore unpredictable. Perhaps the best we can do is wait and see. Ukraine will hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Technology

The Ukrainians have been very effective in developing novel solutions to seemingly intractable military problems; consider the sea drones, FPV warfare on the front lines, the development and use of very long range weapons to perform deep strikes on Russian facilities, the development of a cruise missile, even rumours of nuclear capability within a few months.

The trends here are suggestive. Russia has been innovative too, but on a much smaller scale. Certainly they have also made advances with FPV warfare and with electronic countermeasures, but to a greater extent than Ukraine they have depended on drawing down stocks of older and older equipment.

Russia seems to be slowly becoming less effective, Ukraine is rather quickly becoming more effective. Draw your own conclusions assuming this trend continues.

Power and energy supplies

Both nations have destroyed energy facilities. Russia has destroyed almost all Ukraine’s thermal power stations, and a large amount of hydro-electric power as well. Ukrainians will face a hard winter with insufficient electricity supply, depending now on nuclear plants and imports from the European grid.

Ukraine has seriously damaged Russian oil facilities, taking out many refineries and storage depots. It’s also likely that Russian oil pipelines will freeze this winter, and getting them back online will be very difficult and expensive to say the least. Even without Ukrainian strikes, Russian infrastructure of all kinds is in a poor state because of inadequate maintenance, and there were some notable failures last winter.

Russian economy

Sanctions have profoundly hurt Russia’s economy. Oil and gas revenues have been very hard hit, many skilled and unskilled industrial staff have died in the war leaving severe manpower shortages, the Rouble has fallen in value, inflation and high interest rates are making themselves felt. The future doesn’t look promising.

Unhappy and rebellious populace

It’s quite clear that the Russian people are becoming unhappy. By contrast, in Ukraine people are weary but morale remains high.

Russia can flip when the people are deeply unhappy; there have been similar situations before. In 1917 the autocratic leadership of the Czar brought both defeat in war and hunger to the population – there was a revolution. In 1991, the fall of the Soviet Union followed defeat in Afghanistan and restlessness at home. And in 2024 we see similar conditions building right now – the Russian Army may fail in Ukraine and there’s growing unrest as living conditions worsen and so many families have lost fathers, husbands, brothers and sons in Putin’s war.

We can only conclude that something similar may happen again. It’s not guaranteed, but nor is it impossible.

I might revisit this topic in future if I sense there are useful new points to be made.

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Is the West fumbling security?

I urge you to watch the video below, in which Jonathan Fink interviews … Dr Benjamin Tallis. It’s a fascinating, and I think important, conversation.

Image from Wikimedia

I never thought I would say this. But I approve of some of Boris Johnson’s actions. But let me be a bit more specific; I disapprove strongly of almost everything he did as Prime Minister, but there is one exception:

I like the way he stood up to Russia and clearly understood that enabling Ukraine to win and standing firm against Russia’s objectives and actions was necessary to Europe’s (and the UK’s) long term safety. Although that is all in the past now, we should still be analysing the European situation as it is today, and facing it by planning and acting wisely in our own and our neighbour’s best interests.

With that in mind, I urge you to watch the video below, in which Jonathan Fink interviews the researcher, political analyst, member of the RUSI think tank and author, Dr Benjamin Tallis. It’s a fascinating, and I think important, conversation. The thinking exposed by the interview is crucial to the survival of our way of life in a very dangerous world.

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