Chuck’s maps are clear, informative, and up to date. He posts fresh material most days
Chuck is a retired US Army SEAL (amongst other things). He writes and speaks from a position of considerable knowledge on military matters generally. On his X account, he analyses available information about conflicts around the world, at present particularly focussing on events in Ukraine.
Chuck thinks through whatever information he can glean from online sources and conversations with his contacts, and very quickly transfers the information and his conclusions onto excellent maps. He publishes the maps on his X channel. The maps are up-to-date and informative, but sometimes contain minor errors, like misspelled place names. Given the fact that he builds these maps so fast, I think he can be forgiven these minor errors.
Chuck’s maps are clear, informative, and up to date. He posts fresh material most days (but not every day) and in addition to the maps he includes views and opinions of his own, brief reports on events happening on the ground, and comment on what he has read or heard on public news channels.
The Mryia Report podcasts frequently contain input from Chuck, too.
I normally dip in to Chuck’s X account daily to see what he has posted in the previous 24 hours, and I’m usually rewarded by a new map or two, a brief analysis of a recent event or description of a weapon system newly in use.
Every day , they collect and analyse data … , build an overall picture of what is happening … , and make the results available
ISW is a US think tank researching and reporting on conflicts worldwide. They issue daily bulletins on events in Ukraine and Russia as the war develops and continues. I’ve been reading these regular reports for a long time and greatly appreciate them.
There may be much more detail here than most people require; the reports are long and very thorough. One great thing to remember and appreciate is that ISW makes no attempt to predict outcomes of military actions or military planning.
They have no access to classified information, nor do they ask for it. They study publicly available sources only. These include free and commercially available satellite images, for example from NASA infra-red detectors which enable them to identify fires and explosions on the ground. They use videos published on YouTube and elsewhere, images on Facebook, X and so on from which they can sometimes geolocate events from the visible surroundings. They also assess public announcements by government and military spokespeople, media interviews and so forth.
Every day , they collect and analyse data of this kind, build an overall picture of what is happening on the ground, and make the results available in a daily digest with extensive text and maps. It’s an invaluable service.
Read Yara’s various projects for a refreshing rest from some of the other sources in the list
Yaroslava (Yara for short) lives in Kyiv. Like all the citizens of Ukraine she is living in a country at war – with all that entails. But Yara is not content to just sit idly by while her country and her city cope with missile and drone attacks. She has thoughts, opinions, and a delightful attitude to the arts, craft, music and traditions of her nation.
She writes about all these things and more, she takes and shares photos, usually very good and striking photos of the architecture, people, and the natural world around her. Sometimes she travels.
What I most like about Yara is that despite everything she brings a balanced and kind approach to a situation that is anything but balanced and kind. She provides news roundups, thoughtful comment, and even creative writing.
Read Yara’s various projects above for a refreshing rest from some of the other sources in the list, sources that necessarily deal with the violence of war, or the more technical aspects of events.
Some of the sources include analysis and comment, others do not. Read widely; be aware.
Finding out what is happening on a day-to-day basis isn’t always easy. Many ordinary news sources have biases of one kind or another based on who owns them, funds them, or reads them. This is true for newspapers, TV, and internet sources alike.
The list below is not exhaustive. It contains people and organisations I trust to tell me the truth to the best of their ability, to describe the events and facts as they see them and the consequences that may flow from those events and facts. Some of the sources include analysis and comment, others do not. Read widely; be aware.
The list of links follows, with more explanation at the bottom of the page.
Note: These are not ‘official’ sites, I will not include those as I judge them to be biased and unreliable. The links here are to Russian expatriot sources. People and organisations unable to share truth from within the country.
I’ve started by providing some bare links, when I can I’ll add details about each source.
If the Russian invasion and its consequences are topics you’re interested in, you may find the list helpful. As time allows, for each person or organisation I’ll explain some of the features and advantages as I see them. I’ll add more items as I discover them and will remove any that I feel are no longer useful. If you are aware of other sources that I should consider, let me know in the comments or via my contact form.
Why am I publishing this list of links? And why now, in late 2023? There are two main factors. First, I believe that this war is a pivotal event historically; future historians will recognise this very clearly. What Ukraine is fighting for is freedom and the right to determine it’s own future. Ukraine is internationally recognised as an independent nation with well-defined borders, has a seat at the UN, enjoys a democratically elected government, and has no ambitions to encroach on its neighbours’ rights or territory. Russia, on the other hand, has shown an aggressive attitude towards its neighbours (not just Ukraine). It holds elections in a mockery of democracy, and its leaders seem to think threats, cheating and lies are acceptable ways to govern and conduct international diplomacy. Russia is the playground bully, pushing around the weaker kids and screaming in rage when opposed. (Russia is not alone in this approach, but is certainly the primary example.)
The second factor is that interest in the war has been fading. Public interest in long term situations is fickle, we focus more on new and recent events. That’s to be expected, it’s human nature. The easier it is to find fresh, up-to-date information, the better. This list is my way of encouraging readers to remember, to remain involved and interested. It’s also an attempt to make the information more accessible.
What is being done to Ukraine by Russia is wrong. What happens next is of critical importance to the entire world. Why? Simply because it will set the course of events going forward.
What can you do?
Do you want to live in the freest possible world where individuals and nations are kind to one another? Or do you prefer to live in a dark and fearful world where individuals and nations harm one another to achieve their aims and objectives? You must choose. The real world is forever a mix of light and dark, good and evil, kindness and cruelty. But all of us can affect the balance just a little by our own voices and actions, and even more by our collective voices and actions.
Be kind, and encourage kindness in others. Resist cruelty whenever you see it. Remain informed and stay alert. Do not be silent, share your thoughts with all who will listen.
Shalom is not just peace as in absence of war, quietness, or a chance to think. It means much more than that.
Back in 2007, Donna and I visited Israel. The day we arrived it rained torrentially and our plane had to circle while water was removed from the runway at Tel Aviv airport. But the weather quickly improved and we had a very interesting trip. Much of it I still remember vividly, and the notes I made and the photos I took fill in much more detail.
While we were there, we bought a coffee mug at a tourist site. We still have it, and I enjoy using it now and then. The vivid colours remind me of the bright sunshine and friendly people we met, the colours of items in the market in Jerusalem, the colours of the clothes of the people in the streets.
This mug is special, it carries the word ‘Shalom’ in Hebrew and in English, it means ‘peace’. How I wish for peace in 2023 in Ukraine and around the world. Shalom is not just peace as in absence of war, quietness, or a chance to think. It means much more than that. It means joy, completeness, health in body, mind, and spirit. It means prosperity and a fragrant life.
(I was prompted to write this by Yaroslava Antipina, perhaps to use on her Twitter feed or her blog. Please click the links and leave her some kind thoughts. Thanks!)
Despite repeated assurances that no invasion was planned, Russian forces crossed the border into Ukraine on 24th February 2022. As the tanks and support vehicles rolled towards Kyiv, paratroops were dropped to take the city’s Hostomel Airport.
On 24th February, 2022, Russian forces moved into Ukraine, despite Russia’s repeated assurances that they had no such intention. That moment represented a step change in Russian relations, not just with Ukraine, but with the rest of Europe and the entire world. The tanks, personnel carriers, and self-propelled howitzers rolled across the border from Russia and from Belarus, much as the German tanks had rolled across Eastern Poland and into the Soviet Union 80 years earlier.
Informed opinion among Western military and government thinkers was that Ukrainian forces would buckle, the government would fall within a few days, President Zelensky would be captured or would flee, and a new, puppet regime would be set up by the Russians. There would be almost no resistance, defeat would be swift and complete. Everyone was wrong-footed, Ukraine resisted, Zelensky stayed in Kyiv, and the Russian invasion stalled. And here we are ten months after the invasion, and Ukraine’s army has the upper hand having forced three or four major Russian retreats (it depends how you count them).
Map of Ukraine before the 2022 Russian invasion (From Wikimedia)
Why did Russia invade?
Logical, reasonable thinking always begins with unbiased observation; but there’s an inbuilt human tendency to instead begin with our own opinions which may or may not be biased, and then to look for things that will back those up. There are plenty of examples all around us: for example the tobacco industry in the 1970’s and 80’s had the opinion that smoking provided them with solid profits and was not harmful to health and looked for ways to argue against any evidence for harm. That’s just human nature.
And that’s exactly how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The Russian government began with assumed opinions about history and about NATO intending to harm Russia. Next, serious attempts to justify these positions were made: Russia was the origin of Ukraine which was therefore no more than a Russian region along with the Baltic states and some other parts of the old Soviet Union; NATO was not a defensive organisation but had expansive territorial ambitions, the West wanted to destroy Russia.
On the basis of these assumptions political arguments were made by Vladimir Putin and his supporters, that bringing Ukraine back into line would return territory that had always been Russian, would expose Ukraine’s military weakness, prevent NATO expansion, be welcomed by the majority of Ukrainian citizens, and be tacitly accepted by a weak-minded West. And on that basis, after building up forces along the Ukrainian borders with Russia and with Belarus, the ‘Special Military Operation’ began. Mr Putin’s miscalculations were exposed very quickly. Ukrainian citizens did not support Russia; the Ukrainian forces were much stronger than expected; the West including the EU and USA supported Ukraine in practical ways and applied sanctions; Sweden and Finland were alarmed and applied to join NATO.
Stages of the war
Despite repeated assurances that no invasion was planned, Russian forces crossed the border into Ukraine on 24th February 2022. As the tanks and support vehicles rolled towards Kyiv, paratroops were dropped to take the city’s Hostomel Airport. The plan was to capture the city quickly, arrest President Zelensky, install a puppet regime, and then mop up the remnants of the fleeing Ukrainian forces. But that didn’t work out well for the Russians.
The paratroops were defeated at the airport and the city of Kyiv did not fall. The armoured columns and their support vehicles and troops were badly mauled by the Ukrainians and were forced to retreat north across the border and east as far as Kharkiv, and something of a stalemate resulted in the north. In the south, Russian forces fanned out from Crimea and took the coastline of the Sea of Azov, capturing Kherson. Ukrainian forces were able to stop the Russian advance before the cities of Mykolaev and Zaporizhzhia. In the east, Russia expanded their hold on Luhansk and eastern Donetsk, and captured the city of Mariupol.
For some time there was a stalemate in terms of territory, with relentless Russian shelling of settlements along the line of control. During this period the Ukrainian forces grew stronger with aid and materiel from the West, particularly the USA but also the UK and other European and some non-European powers. At the same time Russia was weakened by a heavy toll on both troops and equipment.
As a result of astute leadership and good use of Western precision armaments, Ukraine became strong enough to push the Russians back, initially in the north, and then also in the south where Russian forces had to retreat from Kherson. This seems to be a development that is still ongoing as we approach the beginning of 2023. There are signs that Ukraine is growing stronger while Russia continues to grow weaker. It’s likely that we’ll see further Ukrainian military successes and Russian forces holding less and less territory. What is harder to predict is how the Russian government, armed forces, and population will react as these failures become more and more clear for all to see.
An analysis to consider
Here’s a video of Michael McFaul speaking at Stanford University. He is familiar with government figures including presidents Putin, Zelensky, and Biden; he understands their thinking; he presents a shrewd and well considered analysis of the situation – one that is well worth watching. I’m not going to write anything here in the way of conclusions; far better to settle back and listen to McFaul’s thoughts and ponder his arguments and conclusions for yourself. His address therefore forms the conclusion to my article.
Journeys of Heart and Mind 