Russia invaded Ukraine two years ago, and everyone (including the Russian leadership) has been surprised at Ukraine’s success and ability to continue for so long. Right at the start of this war, as Russian columns crossed the international borders from both Russia and Belarus, few of us could have predicted that Ukraine would do so well and for so long. Many of us expected it would all be over in two or three days, yet two years later Ukraine still holds out. How?

Let’s think this through, breaking the topic down to war on land, at sea and in the air. First though, here’s a brief note on the historical background.
Ukraine has a long history and was instrumental in founding Moscow way back in early mediaeval times, but Ukraine was subsequently overrun (along with many other lands) by the Mongol empire in the 13th century. Much more recently, after a long period as a republic within the Soviet Union, Ukraine along with several other republics gained its independence when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. At that time Ukraine was recognised world-wide, including by the Russian Federation, as an independent state with its boundaries clearly defined and agreed.
Ukraine is a founding member of the United Nations, entering that body in 1945. On 24th February 2022, when Russian forces invaded Ukraine, they broke international law.
On land
Most people, including many military analysts, assumed that within a few days of the invasion President Zelensky would have fled the country, been captured, or would be dead. Instead he made the now famous announcement that he needed ammunition, not a ride. And by an astonishing combination of determination and resolve, shrewd and innovative military action, and rapid assistance and weapons supply by the West, the government in Kyiv not only hung on, but pushed the Russian Army back in disarray.
This initial action was followed throughout the rest of the year by further advances against Russian forces and a Russian withdrawal from Kherson. In 2023, a western-style counteroffensive was launched without the air support western military doctrine would have required. Although some ground was gained, it was costly in troops and materiel. More recently, because of greatly reduced arms and ammunition supply by the West, despite promises to provide it, the tide seems to be turning in Russia’s favour in the land war.
Appearances can be deceptive, however. Russia’s land war has been glacially slow and every gain has come at enormous cost in Russian lives, equipment and expenditure. Although Russia is slowly gaining ground at the moment, Ukraine has shown they can take on a powerful invading force and significantly weaken it. This has been a war unlike any previous one. The Ukrainian use of drones has surprised the world’s military experts. First Person View (FPV) drones in particular have brought the demise of very large numbers of Russian armoured vehicles, aided and abetted it must be said by wave after wave of troops and equipment providing a constant supply of targets.
There are many other ways in which Ukraine is developing new tactics and weapons. This isn’t the place to go into details but as a single example, they have focussed on damaging transport hubs, bridges, radar installations, ammunition depots, oil production, arms and munitions factories, steel plants, storage facilities and military headquarters buildings. Why? Because doing so deprives Russian forces of the sustaining facilities they need to continue fighting. Ukraine’s military planners are shrewd and innovative.
At sea
Ukraine has sunk a significant portion of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the remaining ships are at serious risk if they put to sea (or even if they don’t). Port infrastructure in Crimea has been seriously damaged, so ports like Sevastopol are no longer suitable places for repairing or storing vessels. They are not safe places to rearm ships, re-provision them, refuel them, or exchange crews.
And Ukraine’s ability to do this has depended on a number of things. They have developed sea drones that are both stealthy and effective. They have used Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles supplied by Britain and France but they have also carefully prepared the conditions to give them the best chances of success. They have been inventive and have used a range of countermeasures to make it much harder for Russia to detect and counter the incoming missiles.
In the air
Recently, Ukrainian forces have brought down a number of Russian aircraft, from the Su 35 fighters and Su34 multirole planes to the largest and most capable radar aircraft, the A-50s. Just recently, they have been making an almost daily habit of this, making it difficult for Russia to risk flying anywhere near the front line areas. Russia had been using glide bombs allowing them to attack ground forces and civilian targets without coming too close. Now they are having to stay even further back. Estimates are that Ukraine has downed over 600 Russian aircraft over the two years of the conflict so far, roughly half fixed-wing and half helicopters.
Future developments
Ukraine’s ability to innovate at a rapid pace is highly significant in this war. Being outnumbered and with less equipment and ammunition than Russia, with a smaller industrial base and arms industry, places Ukraine at a huge disadvantage. The support they have received from the West has helped enormously of course, by providing them with more advanced weapons systems than the Russians have available. But without the necessary ammunition for these weapons, Ukraine knows she cannot entirely depend on the West.
And that’s why innovation is so important. I’ve already mentioned aerial and sea drones. These are not just capable attack weapons against army and naval targets, but they can provide useful intelligence as well. Drones can return detailed images of battlefields, harbours, dockyards, airfields, movements of troops and equipment. As a result, military planners and troops on the ground are better informed and can make better decisions. Ukraine is good at this. They have also proved effective in limiting Russia’s ability, for example by downing the A-50 aircraft mentioned earlier. In war, as in business, government, science and almost every area of human endeavour, knowing the situation is an essential ingredient in planning and decision making.
Ukraine has not settled for what is already available or what her allies are able and willing to provide. There’s a long history of engineering excellence in Ukraine. In Soviet times they played a major role in developing aircraft, rockets, spacecraft and more.
So who has been most innovative in this war so far? Ukraine, without a shadow of doubt. And who has been most reactive so far? Most certainly that’s Russia. Two years in, the pattern is very clear. From the first days when Ukraine defeated Russian forces at Hostomel Airfield and destroyed a traffic-jam of tanks and supply vehicles heading towards Kiev, Ukraine has wrong-footed Russia again and again. The sinking of the flagship ‘Moskva’; the rapid advances east from Kharkiv; the dislodging of Russian forces from Kherson; damaging the Kerch Bridge (twice); the attacks on naval and air bases in Crimea; freeing the western Black Sea from Russian control; restarting grain shipments by a safe route; repeatedly destroying infrastructure in Russia; developing aerial, land and naval drones. Russia has been wrong-footed over and over again, having to react to Ukrainian innovations every time.
And finally, here are my longer term guesses. Ukraine will continue to innovate while Russia will continue to react. Ukraine will win this war, though it may take a lot more time, and will involve much more pain and sacrifice before victory is secured; the Kerch Bridge will be destroyed; Russia will be forced to leave Crimea, much as they had to leave Kherson and the western Black Sea; eventually, Ukraine will join both the EU and NATO; the Russian Federation will collapse militarily, economically and politically and may break up into a series of independent nations; and Vladimir Putin (if he survives) will end up as a captive, either held prisoner by his own people, or in the Hague.
See also:
- Shooting Down 11 Jets In 11 Days – Forbes
- That dreadful war in Ukraine – JHM
- Ukraine’s Long-Term Path to Success – Critical Threats


















