Category: Ukraine

Yara’s letter

Yaroslava Antipina lives in Kyiv, she writes often about Ukrainian culture and art, about the war, and always illustrates her letters with some great photography.

One of Yara’s photos

Verbatim – 1

A short introduction from me first, and then the text and images from Yara’s letter. I rarely post other people’s material verbatim, but this is an exception as Yara writes that it can be shared freely. If I can bring her even one more regular follower it will be worth sharing her letter here.

One of Yara’s photos

Yaroslava Antipina lives in Kyiv, she writes often about Ukrainian culture and art, about the war, and always illustrates her letters with some great photography. Her writing style is engaging and her objective is to help her readers understand what’s happening, how beautiful her country is, and give them some idea of how it feels to live through these events. She has a lot of loyal readers and followers.

Yara is the short form of her name; the name you’d use if you joined her for a coffee in Kyiv. Find her on Patreon, and see another recent letter with some photos of amazing dresses.

The full letter…

Friday Letter from Ukraine. Peace without security guarantees

Hi!

I didn’t plan to write today, but yesterday, while reading a magazine, I came across an article about the Kellogg–Briand Pact. Perhaps you know about it, but let me quickly summarise it, and then I will explain why I mentioned it. I promise this letter will be short.

On August 27, 1928, fifteen nations signed the Kellogg–Briand Pact at Paris; later, forty-seven more joined. France and the United States, represented by the Foreign Minister of France, Aristide Briand, and the Secretary of State of the United States, Frank Kellogg, were the leading initiators of the development and adoption of this document.

The signatories renounced war as a means of national policy towards other countries and pledged to settle disputes peacefully.

Frank Kellogg earned the Nobel Peace Prize in 1929 for his work on the Peace Pact.

In practice, the Pact was ineffective. In 1931, Japan began its occupation of Manchuria. Although Japan had signed the Pact, the combination of the global depression and a limited willingness to engage in war to protect China hindered the League of Nations and the United States from taking any action to enforce it. Later, Italy invaded Ethiopia, and the Soviet Union and Germany started to divide Eastern Europe. The Kellogg–Briand Pact was an example of how wars cannot be prevented by simply prohibiting them and signing a document. 

Ukraine is now forced to make a peace deal with russia. Ukraine demands security guarantees. Without them, I see this peace agreement as a piece of paper where something like, ‘Okay, let’s end this war; enough is enough’ will be written.

Perhaps someone may even be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for it (and you know who I mean).

Meanwhile, russia will take some time to rearm, revive its economy and become even stronger before it invades again. It may be only Ukraine or other neighbouring countries. That piece of paper with ‘enough is enough’ will greatly help russia as there will be no consequences for the new invasion. A big nothing except for worrying nods: ‘It is so bad’.

I know I am telling you very obvious things, and Ukraine constantly repeats and demands it.

I know I don’t decide anything.

I know that these guys in suits can do everything they want.

I know.

But we need to talk. We need to think critically. We need to reflect on the past and learn from history. We need to do even little something to avoid big nothing. Or this ⬇️

Serhii Kichay, Unchildlike Grief, 1943

Thank you for reading. This letter is public so that you can share it with anyone if you want. Commenting is reserved for my supporters as my gratitude for helping my words reach as many people as possible and my intention to keep at least this place safe (I had issues before).

Forward look – Ukraine – 4

The end may come during 2025 or 2026, but it might also happen very much sooner. It’s likely to be a surprise and it will almost certainly end the war, with Ukraine being the survivor.

January 2025

< Dec 2024 (2) | Index | Next >

Larger view
(Wikimedia)

It’s time for another look at the war, to see where things stand in January 2025 and where they may go next. Donald Trump has now taken office as President of the USA and the only thing we can be sure about is that his policies for America’s actions will be different from those of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, in Russia, there are economic, political and military considerations in play and all of them seem problematic for Vladimir Putin (to say the least).

Ukraine continues to take a battering but resistance remains stubborn and determined. For both the population and the armed forces a combination of tiredness, resolve and good morale are all clearly detectable. They are a long way from giving up and a long way from being defeated.

The fighting

Russia and Ukraine have very different approaches to events on the frontline. Putin has demanded a heavy-handed approach, losing an enormous number of troops and huge quantities of equipment, currently throwing wave after wave of infantry at well defended Ukrainian positions (and now some North Korean infantry as well). Russian forces have been ignoring the rules of war, sometimes shooting prisoners, using chemical weapons and so forth.

Ukraine has lost men and equipment too, but on a far smaller scale. Their stubborn resistance along 1200 km of front line has prevented Russian forces from breaking through and although the forward momentum has been in favour of Russian forces it has also been momentum of a very slow, creeping kind. Ukraine has acted entirely within Geneva Convention rules.

On the missile and drone warfare there is a similar difference in approach between the two sides. Russia has targeted residential areas of towns and cities, even hospitals, schools, shopping centres and cultural treasures along with critical infrastructure, especially electricity power stations and local distribution transformers. Again, most of these targets are illegal under international laws and agreements, Russia being a signatory to many of them.

Ukraine has focused on military targets – command and control centres, airfields, naval dockyards and ships, army training camps, troop concentrations, oil production and storage facilities, arms factories, ammunition storage facilities, radar equipment, bridges, railways and roads feeding military traffic to the frontlines.

The effects so far

There have been small, creeping movements along the frontline, mostly in Russia’s favour, although the trend has been slower and slower over the past month and now Ukraine is beginning to make small advances as well from time to time, usually by means of well-planned and well-executed actions when good opportunities arise.

Economic considerations

The Russian economy is showing serious and dangerous strain. The rouble has lost a lot of value against western currencies. Interest rates are high as the central bank has used this as an effective tool to restrict inflation; but the increased borrowing costs have killed industrial investment. Unemployment is very low and Putin has claimed that as a great success, though the reason for it is that military casualties are in excess of 800 000 men and even larger numbers have fled the country to avoid being sent to the frontlines. Most industries are seriously short-staffed; skilled professionals are particularly hard to find.

By defeating Russia in the Black Sea, Ukraine has been able to continue her grain exports whereas Russia’s income from sales of oil and natural gas have fallen due to western sanctions as well as Ukrainian strikes on depots, production and transport facilities.

Military production

Russia is still producing new drones, missiles, ammunition, aircraft, tanks and other armoured vehicles, but at a slower rate than the losses inflicted by Ukraine. Stocks of all these essential items have therefore dwindled away and now appear to be in short supply.

Ukraine has also ramped up production of military hardware and consumables and is now in a position to continue fighting even if supplies from the West diminish.

Innovation

Russia has made progress with drone development, and has recently been making more use of FPV drones controlled via optic cable since this cannot be blocked by radio jamming.

However, Ukrainian production and scale of use of advanced drones far outstrips Russian developments. Recently, Ukrainian sea drones have been fitted with both machine guns and ground to air missiles and have downed helicopters sent to destroy them. This is a major new technological achievement.

And the future?

The balance has been shifting in Ukraine’s favour in so many ways, and the best predictions suggest the Russian economy will collapse, most likely slowly, then suddenly. It’s impossible to know precisely when ‘suddenly’ will come, but it will be devastating when it does. And economic collapse will likely mean military defeat and political upheavals as well.

My opinion based on what I have read and heard, is that the end may come during 2025 or 2026, but it might also happen very much sooner. It’s likely to be a surprise and it will almost certainly end the war, with Ukraine being the survivor.

Militarily too, Ukraine seems to be getting the upper hand. I think it’s very likely that things will go more and more Ukraine’s way in this war in the next few months. There are many unknowns of course, but on balance I expect Russia to eventually lose the war, probably through a combination of economic and military failure, and quite possibly by a Russian decision to withdraw from the conflict altogether. This could happen either as a decision from Putin following pressure internally or by a change of government. These details are not remotely predictable, however.

We in the West should do our part by continuing to apply political and economic pressure, and by continuing and extending our support for Ukraine.

See also:

< Dec 2024 | Index | Next >

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War, truth and persuasion

With Western politicians and news sources wavering seemingly randomly due to many other considerations and distractions, and Russian misinformation sometimes hard to detect and assess, we need to look elsewhere.

Enlarge

Claiming that something is true does not make it so, no matter how large the font.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was almost three years ago, and so far Russia is no nearer to completing its ‘Special military operation’ than when the first Russian troops and vehicles illegally entered the nation it had promised to protect. But neither has Ukraine managed to drive Russia out of its territory completely. It’s not a ‘stalemate’, those are possible in chess, but not in war: there are too many interacting factors for long term stability in a war. Ukraine struggled to hold on during the long period when USA support was stalled by the Republicans, but since then Ukraine has been getting stronger and Russia weaker as their loss of troops, equipment, and funding have gradually become more and more significant issues.

But one important factor to consider is perceived knowledge about events. With Western politicians and news sources wavering seemingly randomly due to many other considerations and distractions, and Russian misinformation sometimes hard to detect and assess, we need to look elsewhere if we want to be informed by truth and reality.

Places to go for good information include the many commentaries about current events from individuals on YouTube, blogs, podcasts and similar media. It’s true that many of these may be biased one way or another, but on the whole it’s easier to identify these biases than it it with large organisations or sources funded by companies or governments. There are fewer mixed messages; individuals are usually clearly on one side or the other, and after weeding those out, the remainder tend to be more impartial.

Take a look at this YouTube video on Silicon Curtain as an example. See how photos and information about the Russian ‘shadow’ tanker fleet are used to reach and influence the right people. Notice how the international company Unilever was encouraged to pull out of Russian business by evidence-based and well targeted information (11 minutes into the video). How much more effective we can be when we think things through carefully rather than just shouting at one another in anger.

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Forward look – Ukraine – 2

Ukraine continues to devise and manufacture novel equipment including drones that can avoid jamming over the final part of their trajectory by tracking the target and striking it without manual control.

A destroyed Russian column in Bucha (Wikimedia)

DECember 2024

< Nov 2024 | Index | Dec 2024(2) >

Larger view
(Wikimedia)

There are many sources of news, interviews, and comment covering events in Russia and Ukraine. There’s a list of some of these at the end of the article. The history of events so far is also well covered. But here I want to consider the future. What might happen next?

Russian advances on the front line

Russia is still making small gains in the east, but at huge cost in men and materiel. But Ukraine has sometimes been able to make small advances too, and I think there’s a slow trend detectable here. The to and fro actions continue to be small scale, and although the bulk of the movement is still in favour of Russia, my feeling is that it’s getting harder for them and perhaps easier for savvy, well-led and well-equipped Ukrainian forces.

One reason for this, I think, is that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks inside both the occupied territories and into Russia itself, have focused heavily on military targets. Russian ammunition dumps, airfields, critical road and rail links, arms factories, oil refining and storage and so on are seriously disrupting supplies to the Russian army. Also, Ukraine continues to devise and manufacture novel equipment including drones that can avoid jamming over the final part of their trajectory by tracking the target and striking it without manual control; mine laying robots that can destroy Russian tanks in places thought to be mine-free; and the relatively new Peklo long range jet-powered missile-drone (just three examples).

Russian air-power is floundering, Ukraine has forced Russia to move its aircraft further from the conflict zone, reducing their ability to drop glide bombs or support ground operations.

Presence of Korean forces

The Koreans still appear to be fairly ineffective. Perhaps due to a combination of language difficulties, poor training, and unsatisfactory leadership.

Donald Trump as US President Elect

Several things suggest Trump may be less helpful to Russia than we may have expected. Putin might have miscalculated by publishing nude images of Melania on Russian state TV. It’s becoming more likely that Putin will, in the end, lose the war and, indeed, power; and Donald Trump is unlikely to want to be associated with any kind of loser. If Ukraine comes out on top, Trump might like to be seen to have helped . I think this is something to watch closely going forward.

Technology

I mentioned this above. Russian industry is struggling to produce sufficient war materiel, but Ukraine has been ramping up, domestically producing ever larger quantities of shells, drones, missiles and so forth. Some of her European allies have been doing the same (Poland and the Baltic States in particular).

Russian economy

Sanctions continue to throttle Russia’s economy. Manpower shortages, the fall in the Ruble’s value, inflation and high interest rates are seeing accelerating changes. Russian economists cannot fix these issues, and the country is attempting to reduce rampant inflation while increasing the money supply. How far off is disastrous economic collapse?

Unhappy and rebellious populace

It’s quite clear that the Russian people are becoming very unhappy, particularly with the coldest part of the winter coming soon. By contrast, in Ukraine people are weary but morale and determination remain high. I mentioned this in November too, but what I didn’t mention then is the restlessness and churn amongst the wealthy business owners, politicians, and the top people in the military. We saw with Prigozhin how frustration and dissatisfaction can lead to revolt. Challenges like this will surely happen again. They will not always fail.

The assassination in Moscow

The remotely controlled explosion in Moscow that killed a Russian general and a member of his staff will have caused some anxiety among Russian leaders, both military and political. And it’s yet another blow to Putin’s prestige following the loss of control in Syria. It also makes it clear that Ukraine will not tolerate war crimes committed against their forces and are capable of acting in the very heart of Russia.

< Nov 2024 | Index | Dec 2024(2) >

See also:

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Forward look – Ukraine – 1

In some ways, predicting the future is a fool’s errand, we will always fail in the detail. But where there are clear trends we can make educated guesses, and these can inform our actions in the here and now.

A destroyed Russian column in Bucha (Wikimedia)

November 2024

< No earlier post | Index | Dec 2024 >

What began as a Russian invasion of Ukraine, a show of force aimed at decapitation of the state, the destruction of democracy, and the installation of a puppet administration didn’t work out well for Russia.

Larger view
(Mediawiki)

There are many sources of news, interviews, and comment covering events in Russia and Ukraine. There’s a list of some of these at the end of the article. The history of events so far is also well covered. But here I want to consider the future. What might happen next?

In some ways, predicting the future is a fool’s errand, we will always fail in the detail. But where there are clear trends we can make educated guesses, and these can inform our actions in the here and now. Looking ahead is hugely useful. Do I need to buy more bread? How long will the milk remain usable? How can I raise the money to start a new business? Where shall I go on holiday next year? How should we change our behaviour to reduce the impact of global warming? Even walking along a footpath involves thinking about the next step, avoiding obstacles. Whether we’re planning our next footfall, considering our next holiday or our next career step – trying to predict the future is essential. And remembering the past is part of the process as we ask ourselves, ‘Have we seen a situation like this before? What happened last time?’

So what is likely to happen next in the war between Russia and Ukraine?

Russian advances on the front line

The pattern of previous months has continued, Russia has pushed forward, little by little, day by day, sometimes in just one part of the front line, sometimes in several. But these advances have been mostly small, often just tens or hundreds of metres, sometimes a couple of kilometres. Looking at a large scale map it’s difficult to see any change at all, and sometimes Ukraine has pushed back. The bigger story, perhaps, is the cost to Russia in terms of men and materiel. They are losing around 40 000 men a month, along with large numbers of vehicles including tanks and armoured personnel carriers. Giving up ground slowly gives Ukraine many opportunites to destroy Russian troops and equipment.

The wet, muddy season that bogs down military vehicles has not yet fully materialised. Surely it will come soon. We may see a sharp drop in large scale movements by both sides; but there are other factors too. Russian losses in men and materiel have been savage, Ukrainian drone strikes have destroyed large amounts of stored ammunition and equipment, army HQ facilities, fuel supplies, airfields, and military industrial facilities. All of this is slowing Russian forces down and making everything more difficult.

It seems likely that Russia’s creeping advance will stall, and perhaps even go into reverse. There are already some signs that this is already happening, both in Kursk and along the frontlines in Ukraine. Expect this trend to continue.

Presence of Korean forces

The evidence so far is that Korean troops are not likely to make much difference. They have not been very effective so far in Kursk where they’ve been deployed. At best, they may delay Russia’s need to find additional Russian troops.

Donald Trump as US President Elect

This is a difficult one to call. Trump tends to be erratic and therefore unpredictable. Perhaps the best we can do is wait and see. Ukraine will hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Technology

The Ukrainians have been very effective in developing novel solutions to seemingly intractable military problems; consider the sea drones, FPV warfare on the front lines, the development and use of very long range weapons to perform deep strikes on Russian facilities, the development of a cruise missile, even rumours of nuclear capability within a few months.

The trends here are suggestive. Russia has been innovative too, but on a much smaller scale. Certainly they have also made advances with FPV warfare and with electronic countermeasures, but to a greater extent than Ukraine they have depended on drawing down stocks of older and older equipment.

Russia seems to be slowly becoming less effective, Ukraine is rather quickly becoming more effective. Draw your own conclusions assuming this trend continues.

Power and energy supplies

Both nations have destroyed energy facilities. Russia has destroyed almost all Ukraine’s thermal power stations, and a large amount of hydro-electric power as well. Ukrainians will face a hard winter with insufficient electricity supply, depending now on nuclear plants and imports from the European grid.

Ukraine has seriously damaged Russian oil facilities, taking out many refineries and storage depots. It’s also likely that Russian oil pipelines will freeze this winter, and getting them back online will be very difficult and expensive to say the least. Even without Ukrainian strikes, Russian infrastructure of all kinds is in a poor state because of inadequate maintenance, and there were some notable failures last winter.

Russian economy

Sanctions have profoundly hurt Russia’s economy. Oil and gas revenues have been very hard hit, many skilled and unskilled industrial staff have died in the war leaving severe manpower shortages, the Rouble has fallen in value, inflation and high interest rates are making themselves felt. The future doesn’t look promising.

Unhappy and rebellious populace

It’s quite clear that the Russian people are becoming unhappy. By contrast, in Ukraine people are weary but morale remains high.

Russia can flip when the people are deeply unhappy; there have been similar situations before. In 1917 the autocratic leadership of the Czar brought both defeat in war and hunger to the population – there was a revolution. In 1991, the fall of the Soviet Union followed defeat in Afghanistan and restlessness at home. And in 2024 we see similar conditions building right now – the Russian Army may fail in Ukraine and there’s growing unrest as living conditions worsen and so many families have lost fathers, husbands, brothers and sons in Putin’s war.

We can only conclude that something similar may happen again. It’s not guaranteed, but nor is it impossible.

I might revisit this topic in future if I sense there are useful new points to be made.

See also:

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Is the West fumbling security?

I urge you to watch the video below, in which Jonathan Fink interviews … Dr Benjamin Tallis. It’s a fascinating, and I think important, conversation.

Image from Wikimedia

I never thought I would say this. But I approve of some of Boris Johnson’s actions. But let me be a bit more specific; I disapprove strongly of almost everything he did as Prime Minister, but there is one exception:

I like the way he stood up to Russia and clearly understood that enabling Ukraine to win and standing firm against Russia’s objectives and actions was necessary to Europe’s (and the UK’s) long term safety. Although that is all in the past now, we should still be analysing the European situation as it is today, and facing it by planning and acting wisely in our own and our neighbour’s best interests.

With that in mind, I urge you to watch the video below, in which Jonathan Fink interviews the researcher, political analyst, member of the RUSI think tank and author, Dr Benjamin Tallis. It’s a fascinating, and I think important, conversation. The thinking exposed by the interview is crucial to the survival of our way of life in a very dangerous world.

See also:

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Writing with feathers

Yara has a lovely way with words, especially when you consider that she had to learn English first. Or maybe she expresses herself in a Ukrainian way that English speakers don’t expect.

Here’s more from Yara in Kyiv and her weekly Sunday messages. She stays strong and determined, reporting on events, Ukrainian art and literature, sharing photos and sometimes a video.

I wanted to mention Yara from Ukraine again (aka StrategyWoman) because I’d like you, my readers, to better understand what she and others in Ukraine have to deal with every day. Normal for Ukrainians is not the same as normal in the West – far from it. Yara lives in Kyiv, hears the drones and missiles coming in every night, and the air raid sirens. Her life is not like yours (unless, perhaps, you also live in Ukraine or another country under attack).

Here in the UK, and in western nations more generally, most of us have experienced nothing like this since the Second World War, and you would need to be very old to recall those times.

Yara does not ask us to rescue her, that would be to misunderstand her completely. She wants to live in her own country, not escape to somewhere more peaceful (but nor would she blame those who have left Ukraine). What she does hope for is that we in the west won’t forget about Ukraine.

To guard against our forgetting, she posts weekly messages on Sundays. These provide news, but they are always illustrated by beautiful artworks and photos, and she usually explains something from her daily life and from those around her.

Yara has a lovely way with words, especially when you consider that she had to learn English first. Or maybe she expresses herself in a Ukrainian way that English speakers don’t expect. However that may be, her words are fresh in innovative and interesting turns of phrase. For example:

Every support adds a feather to my wings. Yeah, I use these feathers to write you letters.

And she included the picture of feathers in a nest along with the words above.

If you’re willing to read her Sunday letters you are unlikely to be disappointed. For starters, read her 27th October letter for yourself. Even better, sign up to receive her letters regularly, the links are on Yara’s page. Sign up for free, but if you like what you find, do consider supporting her as well.

Jonathan Fink

Silicon Curtain will expand your knowledge and background of the war as well as current events as they unfold. He posts frequently so the interviews are bang up to date.

Jonathan Fink is deeply interested in Russia’s illegal and barbaric invasion of her neighbour, Ukraine. He interviews all sorts of interesting, knowledgeable, and influential people in depth on his channel Silicon Curtain.

The background

Jonathan speaks at length with western politicians, retired army generals, Ukrainian commentators, visionaries, exiled Russians, and more. His interviews are always fascinating and he draws his guests out, always kind and measured, but also always probing and perceptive. Silicon Curtain is well worth watching and will expand your knowledge and background of the war as well as current events as they unfold. He posts frequently so the interviews are bang up to date.

With Mark Galeotti

Here he is, for example, talking with Mark Galeotti, a British historian, academic, and writer as well as being a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi).

With Chuck Pfarrer

And here interviewing Chuck Pfarrer, a retired US Navy Seal team leader and a respected military analyst and commentator, author and more.

Do take time to browse Silicon Curtain, you will find interviews on every aspect of the conflict here with experts who know their topics really well.

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‘Gradually, then suddenly’

Nobody can predict when the crash will come. But I believe General Hodges is right when he suggests that current events in Kursk are unlikely to be the only surprise.

What is going to happen next in Russia’s war against Ukraine? We don’t know, we’ll have to wait and see. But it’s possible to make some broad predictions even without knowing the facts.

General Ben Hodges, speaking about Vladimir Putin and the Russian Army’s current floundering against Ukraine, quoted Ernest Hemingway :

How did you go bankrupt?

Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

Ernest Hemingway – ‘The Sun also Rises’
The Kursk incursion – ISW

This is certainly true of Russia, they are wasting their soldiers, wasting their equipment, the economy is sliding out of control, and the population is now beginning to hear the very bad and disturbing news from Kursk Oblast (click the map for a larger version).

And it’s just as true for Putin personally. His moral bankruptcy in Russia and in the world at large is going to catch up with him. Abraham Lincoln’s famous words are relevant here: ‘You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.’

The truth has a way of coming out, and it often chooses very bad moments to do so!

Nobody can predict when the crash will come. But I believe General Hodges is right when he suggests that current events in Kursk are unlikely to be the only surprise Ukraine will spring on all of us, perhaps in the near future or maybe a little while later.

We’re still in the ‘gradually’ stage. But for Russia and for Putin the ‘suddenly’ phase will surely follow.

Watch the interview with Ben Hodges
Kyiv Post interview with General Ben Hodges

The Kyiv Post interviewed Ben Hodges on 21st August 2024, answering a series of questions about Ukraine’s recent activity in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, as well as some more general questions.

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Image of the day – 29

Tree roots probe small cracks and as they grow, heave even heavy structures aside.

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What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye.

I’m posting an image every day (or as often as I can). A photo, an image from the internet, a diagram or a map. Whatever takes my fancy.

Silver birch

Today’s image shows a piece of ground lightly covered with silver birch; but the history of this area is interesting. During the war it was an RAF airfield (RAF Riccall) with runways, brick and concrete buildings, bomb stores and more. The airfield was in used from 1944 to 1958, and today the brick structures are collapsing, the runways have cracked and are mostly covered by layers of moss, grass and other low vegetation, and the other areas have become scrubland and lightly wooded areas as shown in the photo.

This clearly illustrates how much time and maintenance effort is required to hold back the natural world from recolonising our built infrastructure. What begins with the typical grass and weeds of cultivated ground soon becomes an impenetrable mass of brambles and young trees. As they grow larger, the trees shade out the brambles, and fallen leaves cover the concrete and tarmac and accumulate as fresh soil. Tree roots probe small cracks and, as they grow, heave even heavy structures aside. It’s a fascinating process. Skipwith Common, with the old airfield on its north-western edge, is representative of Yorkshire’s lowland heath ecology.

We think our built environment is solid and secure – not so! It’s easily overwhelmed once we stop maintaining it. Look at the land around the site of Chornobyl in Ukraine for another example of the speed of wildlife return to an area substantially left alone by humans.

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