Geographical – Page 3 – Journeys of Heart and Mind

Knightstone Causeway

Image 132 – What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

The beach in the photo is at Weston-super-Mare. Beyond it is Knightstone Harbour with boats high and dry because the tide is partly out. And beyond the harbour and the causeway you can see the buildings including Dr Fox’s Tearoom, Knightstone baths, Stones Cafe, and Knightstone Opera House. When we’re in Weston, Donna and I sometimes enjoy breakfast at Stones.

Originally it must have been a sandbank jutting out towards the Severn Estuary, perhaps with a backbone of exposed rock. Today it’s been built up and would barely be recognisable to the local people of two hundred years ago.

The largest boat you can see is the Steep Holm Ferry. It makes return trips out to Steep Holm island with a stay of ten to twelve hours, and basically it’s the only way to get there unless you have your own seaworthy vessel. The water here can’t make up its mind whether it’s the River Severn estuary or the North Somerset coast. It’s sixteen or so kilometres wide, in terms of weather and water conditions it can be treacherous.

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Forward look – Ukraine – 4

The end may come during 2025 or 2026, but it might also happen very much sooner. It’s likely to be a surprise and it will almost certainly end the war, with Ukraine being the survivor.

January 2025

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It’s time for another look at the war, to see where things stand in January 2025 and where they may go next. Donald Trump has now taken office as President of the USA and the only thing we can be sure about is that his policies for America’s actions will be different from those of his predecessor, Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, in Russia, there are economic, political and military considerations in play and all of them seem problematic for Vladimir Putin (to say the least).

Ukraine continues to take a battering but resistance remains stubborn and determined. For both the population and the armed forces a combination of tiredness, resolve and good morale are all clearly detectable. They are a long way from giving up and a long way from being defeated.

The fighting

Russia and Ukraine have very different approaches to events on the frontline. Putin has demanded a heavy-handed approach, losing an enormous number of troops and huge quantities of equipment, currently throwing wave after wave of infantry at well defended Ukrainian positions (and now some North Korean infantry as well). Russian forces have been ignoring the rules of war, sometimes shooting prisoners, using chemical weapons and so forth.

Ukraine has lost men and equipment too, but on a far smaller scale. Their stubborn resistance along 1200 km of front line has prevented Russian forces from breaking through and although the forward momentum has been in favour of Russian forces it has also been momentum of a very slow, creeping kind. Ukraine has acted entirely within Geneva Convention rules.

On the missile and drone warfare there is a similar difference in approach between the two sides. Russia has targeted residential areas of towns and cities, even hospitals, schools, shopping centres and cultural treasures along with critical infrastructure, especially electricity power stations and local distribution transformers. Again, most of these targets are illegal under international laws and agreements, Russia being a signatory to many of them.

Ukraine has focused on military targets – command and control centres, airfields, naval dockyards and ships, army training camps, troop concentrations, oil production and storage facilities, arms factories, ammunition storage facilities, radar equipment, bridges, railways and roads feeding military traffic to the frontlines.

The effects so far

There have been small, creeping movements along the frontline, mostly in Russia’s favour, although the trend has been slower and slower over the past month and now Ukraine is beginning to make small advances as well from time to time, usually by means of well-planned and well-executed actions when good opportunities arise.

Economic considerations

The Russian economy is showing serious and dangerous strain. The rouble has lost a lot of value against western currencies. Interest rates are high as the central bank has used this as an effective tool to restrict inflation; but the increased borrowing costs have killed industrial investment. Unemployment is very low and Putin has claimed that as a great success, though the reason for it is that military casualties are in excess of 800 000 men and even larger numbers have fled the country to avoid being sent to the frontlines. Most industries are seriously short-staffed; skilled professionals are particularly hard to find.

By defeating Russia in the Black Sea, Ukraine has been able to continue her grain exports whereas Russia’s income from sales of oil and natural gas have fallen due to western sanctions as well as Ukrainian strikes on depots, production and transport facilities.

Military production

Russia is still producing new drones, missiles, ammunition, aircraft, tanks and other armoured vehicles, but at a slower rate than the losses inflicted by Ukraine. Stocks of all these essential items have therefore dwindled away and now appear to be in short supply.

Ukraine has also ramped up production of military hardware and consumables and is now in a position to continue fighting even if supplies from the West diminish.

Innovation

Russia has made progress with drone development, and has recently been making more use of FPV drones controlled via optic cable since this cannot be blocked by radio jamming.

However, Ukrainian production and scale of use of advanced drones far outstrips Russian developments. Recently, Ukrainian sea drones have been fitted with both machine guns and ground to air missiles and have downed helicopters sent to destroy them. This is a major new technological achievement.

And the future?

The balance has been shifting in Ukraine’s favour in so many ways, and the best predictions suggest the Russian economy will collapse, most likely slowly, then suddenly. It’s impossible to know precisely when ‘suddenly’ will come, but it will be devastating when it does. And economic collapse will likely mean military defeat and political upheavals as well.

My opinion based on what I have read and heard, is that the end may come during 2025 or 2026, but it might also happen very much sooner. It’s likely to be a surprise and it will almost certainly end the war, with Ukraine being the survivor.

Militarily too, Ukraine seems to be getting the upper hand. I think it’s very likely that things will go more and more Ukraine’s way in this war in the next few months. There are many unknowns of course, but on balance I expect Russia to eventually lose the war, probably through a combination of economic and military failure, and quite possibly by a Russian decision to withdraw from the conflict altogether. This could happen either as a decision from Putin following pressure internally or by a change of government. These details are not remotely predictable, however.

We in the West should do our part by continuing to apply political and economic pressure, and by continuing and extending our support for Ukraine.

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An Irish scene

Such beautiful, peaceful scenery. Trees upon trees, fields upon fields, mountain upon mountains – and yes, houses, farms, villages. What a lovely place to live!

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Image 123 – What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

At the beginning of August, on our way north for our family holiday, we went for a walk at Slieve Gullion Forest Park, and I took this photo. Such beautiful, peaceful scenery. Trees upon trees, fields upon fields, mountain upon mountains – and yes, houses, farms, villages. What a lovely place to live!

We also drove round the ring of Gullion, and that was another amazing experience. A long climb up a narrow road glorious views from the parking spots, and no problems passing other vehicles as it’s a one-way system. It would also make a fine, long walk if you have enough time.

When: 1st August 2024
Where: Belfast, Northern Ireland

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Titanic

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Image 122 – What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

While we were on holiday, we visited the Titanic museum in Belfast. It really was an amazing exhibition, very well designed and executed. There were several immersive video experiences, using a real set but with virtual, projected characters in period costume having conversations that were informative and compelling. In the photo, a lady, first-class passenger is talking with one of the cabin staff.

The Titanic Experience begins even before you reach the ticket office. The building itself is shaped as if the bow of the ship is bearing down on you, and immediately inside we were surrounded by steel structures that made us feel as if we were entering a shipbuilding business. The static displays were informative, and the history of Belfast as a shipbuilding city, the work of Harland and Wolf in the early part of the twentieth century, the building of Titanic and her sister ships, the launch, fitting out, sea trials, and the fateful first (and only) voyage, the rescues at sea, and the aftermath were all brought to life.

I can recommend the experience; if you ever get the chance, go and see it.

When: 6th August 2024
Where: Belfast, Northern Ireland

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Fine weather if you have fine kit!

We had the right gear for staying dry in rain, mud and heavily dripping vegetation, so we were warm and comfortable amid the fragrance of wet grass and decaying leaves.

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Image 121 – What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

There is a saying amongst the walking fraternity, that ‘There’s no such thing as bad weather, just bad kit’. Here are two of my friends, the three of us were out for a lovely walk in wet weather in the Cotswolds. We had the right gear for staying dry in rain, mud and heavily dripping vegetation, so we were warm and comfortable amid the fragrance of wet grass and decaying leaves.

Perhaps this not not everyone’s favourite activity, but we loved it! Damp October days like this one are good for spotting early autumn colour on the trees as well as mushrooms and toadstools amongst the fallen leaves and blades of grass. There is so much to see everywhere you look.

When: 19th October 2023
Where: Near Edgeworth, Cotswolds

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War, truth and persuasion

With Western politicians and news sources wavering seemingly randomly due to many other considerations and distractions, and Russian misinformation sometimes hard to detect and assess, we need to look elsewhere.

Claiming that something is true does not make it so, no matter how large the font.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was almost three years ago, and so far Russia is no nearer to completing its ‘Special military operation’ than when the first Russian troops and vehicles illegally entered the nation it had promised to protect. But neither has Ukraine managed to drive Russia out of its territory completely. It’s not a ‘stalemate’, those are possible in chess, but not in war: there are too many interacting factors for long term stability in a war. Ukraine struggled to hold on during the long period when USA support was stalled by the Republicans, but since then Ukraine has been getting stronger and Russia weaker as their loss of troops, equipment, and funding have gradually become more and more significant issues.

But one important factor to consider is perceived knowledge about events. With Western politicians and news sources wavering seemingly randomly due to many other considerations and distractions, and Russian misinformation sometimes hard to detect and assess, we need to look elsewhere if we want to be informed by truth and reality.

Places to go for good information include the many commentaries about current events from individuals on YouTube, blogs, podcasts and similar media. It’s true that many of these may be biased one way or another, but on the whole it’s easier to identify these biases than it it with large organisations or sources funded by companies or governments. There are fewer mixed messages; individuals are usually clearly on one side or the other, and after weeding those out, the remainder tend to be more impartial.

Take a look at this YouTube video on Silicon Curtain as an example. See how photos and information about the Russian ‘shadow’ tanker fleet are used to reach and influence the right people. Notice how the international company Unilever was encouraged to pull out of Russian business by evidence-based and well targeted information (11 minutes into the video). How much more effective we can be when we think things through carefully rather than just shouting at one another in anger.

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A Cotswold scene

Travelling north and west from Cirencester takes you through steadily rising hills peaking at 330 metres or so, and dissected by water-cut valleys until you reach the Cotswold scarp.

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Image 116 – What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

This farmland just on the edge of Cirencester is a classic Cotswold scene. There is higher land in the background with scattered trees, and in the foreground you can see rich pasture good for cattle or horses.

The flat, pasture land is part of the River Churn flood plain, while the low hills beyond are outcrops of oolitic limestone, the rock that forms the backbone of the Cotswold hills. Travelling north and west from Cirencester takes you through steadily rising hills peaking at 330 metres or so, and dissected by water-cut valleys until you reach the Cotswold scarp that drops back almost to sea-level within a short distance. Beyond that is the wide, flat vale of the River Severn, and beyond that again, Wales with its hills and mountains. In medieval times Cirencester was known in Welsh as Caer Ceri. If the Saxons had not settled quite so far west, Cirencester might have signs saying ‘Croeso y Gaerceri’, and the Severn would have been Hafren.

When: 26th October 2023
Where: Gloucester Road, leaving Cirencester

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Cirencester

For convenience, here’s a list of all the Cirencester area images:

A417 roadworks, Advent Market, Bishops Walk, Baunton, Canal 1, 2, Castle Street, Christmas lights 1, 2, Church 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, Churn flood, Countryside, Fallen tree, Fleece, Gasworks, Gloucester Street, Hare 1, 2, Hospital, Market Place 1, Phoenix Fest, Riverside Walk, Stone plaque, Stratton Meadow, Tank traps, View, Wonky 1, 2, Yellow Iris

Themed image collections

The links below will take you to the first post in each collection

Cirencester, Favourites, Irish holiday 2024, Roman villa

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Frosty cobweb

Never give up! According to the story, Robert the Bruce learned that lesson by watching a spider at work. So should we.

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Image 113 – What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

Cobwebs are so-called because ‘cob’ is an old English word for ‘spider’. As you will know, they are usually very hard to see, but moisture or frost renders them clearly visible when weather conditions are right. This example on the wooden fence at the end of our garden is typical.

It’s astonishing that a spider can spin a web like this working almost entirely on instinctive responses to the support structures available. They begin by attaching a thread to any object that may be available. Once they have three or four points of contact set up, they lay out the radial silk threads, and these are purely structural and are all free of the adhesive that traps insect prey. Finally they lay out the spiral with sticky threads. And then they lie in wait until something shakes the web and then dart out to capture a meal if one has arrived.

There is hard work and investment in building the web, and there are good days when food arrives in plenty, and other days when frost makes the hidden net visible and nothing is caught, days when the wind ruins the old web and a new one must be created.

Never give up! According to the story, Robert the Bruce learned that lesson by watching a spider at work. None of us should give up in times of failure.

Christmas has gone and the New Year is almost upon us, so I’ll wish all of you, my readers, the very best of everything for 2025. Grace and peace to you in Jesus’ name. No doubt it will, like all previous years, be full of unexpected surprises, some good, others challenging. There will be things to smile and laugh about, and difficulties to overcome. But by this time next year I hope that most of us will be able to remember the best things without dwelling too much on the problems. However you look at it, life is full, and 2025 is nearly here.

Themed image collections

The links below will take you to the first post in each collection

Cirencester, Favourites, Irish holiday 2024, Roman villa

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Forward look – Ukraine – 2

Ukraine continues to devise and manufacture novel equipment including drones that can avoid jamming over the final part of their trajectory by tracking the target and striking it without manual control.

A destroyed Russian column in Bucha (Wikimedia)

DECember 2024

< Nov 2024 | Index | Dec 2024(2) >

There are many sources of news, interviews, and comment covering events in Russia and Ukraine. There’s a list of some of these at the end of the article. The history of events so far is also well covered. But here I want to consider the future. What might happen next?

Russian advances on the front line

Russia is still making small gains in the east, but at huge cost in men and materiel. But Ukraine has sometimes been able to make small advances too, and I think there’s a slow trend detectable here. The to and fro actions continue to be small scale, and although the bulk of the movement is still in favour of Russia, my feeling is that it’s getting harder for them and perhaps easier for savvy, well-led and well-equipped Ukrainian forces.

One reason for this, I think, is that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks inside both the occupied territories and into Russia itself, have focused heavily on military targets. Russian ammunition dumps, airfields, critical road and rail links, arms factories, oil refining and storage and so on are seriously disrupting supplies to the Russian army. Also, Ukraine continues to devise and manufacture novel equipment including drones that can avoid jamming over the final part of their trajectory by tracking the target and striking it without manual control; mine laying robots that can destroy Russian tanks in places thought to be mine-free; and the relatively new Peklo long range jet-powered missile-drone (just three examples).

Russian air-power is floundering, Ukraine has forced Russia to move its aircraft further from the conflict zone, reducing their ability to drop glide bombs or support ground operations.

Presence of Korean forces

The Koreans still appear to be fairly ineffective. Perhaps due to a combination of language difficulties, poor training, and unsatisfactory leadership.

Donald Trump as US President Elect

Several things suggest Trump may be less helpful to Russia than we may have expected. Putin might have miscalculated by publishing nude images of Melania on Russian state TV. It’s becoming more likely that Putin will, in the end, lose the war and, indeed, power; and Donald Trump is unlikely to want to be associated with any kind of loser. If Ukraine comes out on top, Trump might like to be seen to have helped . I think this is something to watch closely going forward.

Technology

I mentioned this above. Russian industry is struggling to produce sufficient war materiel, but Ukraine has been ramping up, domestically producing ever larger quantities of shells, drones, missiles and so forth. Some of her European allies have been doing the same (Poland and the Baltic States in particular).

Russian economy

Sanctions continue to throttle Russia’s economy. Manpower shortages, the fall in the Ruble’s value, inflation and high interest rates are seeing accelerating changes. Russian economists cannot fix these issues, and the country is attempting to reduce rampant inflation while increasing the money supply. How far off is disastrous economic collapse?

Unhappy and rebellious populace

It’s quite clear that the Russian people are becoming very unhappy, particularly with the coldest part of the winter coming soon. By contrast, in Ukraine people are weary but morale and determination remain high. I mentioned this in November too, but what I didn’t mention then is the restlessness and churn amongst the wealthy business owners, politicians, and the top people in the military. We saw with Prigozhin how frustration and dissatisfaction can lead to revolt. Challenges like this will surely happen again. They will not always fail.

The assassination in Moscow

The remotely controlled explosion in Moscow that killed a Russian general and a member of his staff will have caused some anxiety among Russian leaders, both military and political. And it’s yet another blow to Putin’s prestige following the loss of control in Syria. It also makes it clear that Ukraine will not tolerate war crimes committed against their forces and are capable of acting in the very heart of Russia.

< Nov 2024 | Index | Dec 2024(2) >

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Chastleton window

The panes of old glass are held in place with lead, reinforced by a horizontal iron bar for additional strength and rigidity.

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Image 108 – What’s in an image? Sometimes quite a lot, more than meets the eye. I’m posting an image every day or so.

I wonder what past events might have been witnessed by this lovely, old window at Chastleton House in Oxfordshire? Windows are not made like this any longer, the window frame is stone-built as part of the structure of the house. The panes of old glass are held in place with lead, reinforced by a horizontal iron bar for additional strength and rigidity.

Chastleton is on the eastern edge of the Cotswolds, between Stow-on-the-Wold and Chipping Norton. It’s famous for its amazing plaster ceilings but it would still be an architectural gem without those. It’s managed by the National Trust these days.

The house was built in the Jacobean period between 1607 and 1612; it was owned by the same family for almost 400 years until the National Trust took over in 1991.

When: 15th December 2023
Where: Chastleton House, Oxfordshire

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January 2025

The fighting

The effects so far

Economic considerations

Military production

Innovation

And the future?

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Cirencester

Themed image collections

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See also:

Themed image collections

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DECember 2024

Russian advances on the front line

Presence of Korean forces

Donald Trump as US President Elect

Technology

Russian economy

Unhappy and rebellious populace

The assassination in Moscow

See also:

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See also:

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