Category: ForwardLookUkraine

Cease fires and talks

Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.)

Forward look, ukraine – 6

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March 2025

Representatives of the American president, Donald Trump, have been talking with both Russian and Ukrainian representatives in an attempt to end the war. Trump repeatedly claims, ‘This war would never have happened if I’d been president’, and further claimed that he’d be able to end it in 24 hours once he was in office. The first claim cannot be tested, but no evidence has been presented as to how the war might have been averted. And the second claim was, at best, wishful thinking; Trump has had a lot longer than 24 hours but there’s still no sign of the war ending any time soon.

What is being discussed between the USA and Russia and between the USA and Ukraine is still only partly clear, but the best we can hope for in the near-term is some kind of Black Sea ceasefire and a 30-day stoppage of attacks on energy systems. It’s hardly the kind of complete ceasefire (‘end the killing’) that Donald Trump promised us!

But when you look a little deeper there are issues that would be obvious to anyone who is a good negotiator. Effectively, action in the Black Sea is practically over anyway. Ukraine has sunk half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the survivors have fled to the Caspian Sea. (Ukraine 1, Russia 0.) And Russia will wriggle and squirm endlessly to avoid an energy ceasefire. Putin wants to seem agreeable to the ceasefire to appease Trump, but he doesn’t want to actually sign on the dotted line because he thinks he’s winning the energy battle. (He’s not.) Nor are Trump’s offers to Putin entirely within his gift. No NATO countries involved? No Western troops in Ukraine? No more weapons or ammunition for Ukraine? Sorry Mr Trump, Europe will not necessarily do your bidding over this. French and British forces might be there sooner than you think. Macron is making announcements as I write; you cannot make a gift unless you’re holding it in your hand. (And you’re not holding it.)

What will happen next?

That is, of course, the big question. I can give my thoughts, but nothing is certain.

Let’s start with what we know.

  • If Putin is winning this war, he doing it in a very curious way. So far, his initial take-over bid was stopped and then substantially pushed back by Ukraine. He’s lost 900 000 troops, killed or seriously wounded. He’s lost the vast bulk of his armoured vehicles, tanks, trucks, ships in the Black Sea, artillery, radar equipment, anti aircraft missiles, and many aircraft and helicopters.
  • Energy infrastructure has been severely damaged in both countries, particularly electrical systems in Ukraine; and oil and gas production, transport, refining and storage facilities in Russia.
  • Militarily, Russia has been seriously weakened while Ukraine has become stronger. Ukraine develops and manufactures cruise missiles and drones that are flying further and further into Russian territory.
  • Ukraine is innovating rapidly, and faster than Russia. This is noticeable in the first person view (FPV) drone technology, but also in the longer distance technologies and in sea-drones.
  • Ukraine has focused on specific kinds of target to great effect, taking out much of Russia’s air defence, enabling a greater proportion of attacks to get through undetected.
  • There are clear signs that Ukraine is getting the upper hand along the lines of contact. For a long time, Russia has been making very slow, but continuous progress (though at very great cost). Recently there have been signs that Ukraine might get the upper hand, Russian progress has slowed almost everywhere, stalled in some places, and Ukraine has been able to take back some ground in several areas. This gadual reversal of Russian success will likely become faster as the summer proceeds.
  • The Russian economy is in a really poor state and slowly getting worse, not better. This too could well be a trend that will become a fatal crash within the next twelve months or so.

In terms of Trump’s efforts to curry favour with Russia and crush Ukraine – because that is how I interpret what is going on – there is an elephant in the room. It may not be a truly heavyweight elephant, but Europe (and I include the UK here, as well as other allies like Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea) has no wish to stop supporting Ukraine. Continued supply of weapons, ammunition, electricity and financial help from Europe and her friends may just be something Trump cannot influence very much. He can make offers and promises to Putin, but can he force the rest of us into line? I have no doubt he’ll try, but at the same time I very much doubt he’ll succeed.

In summary

The short term prospects for Ukraine are more pain, more suffering, and significant struggles to deal with both Russia (miltarily) and America (politically).

But I do believe the longer term prospects are much brighter. Ukraine can become an important part of Europe, a member of the EU, with a strong economy and strong armed forces, contributing culturally, economically and acting in concert with other states bordering Russia as a bulwark against Russian expansionism.

Slava Ukraini! Heroyam slava!

See also:

Here are just three of the many sources of information out there.

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Political turmoil in the USA

[A] wider war is possible. There’s a real possibility of a European conflict between Russia and the rest of Europe. There’s a chance of civil war between opposing groups within the Russian Federation.

Forward look, ukraine – 5

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Feb 2025

So much has changed since our last Forward Look.

The world has seen political turmoil in the USA where President Trump has taken over from Biden. When you stick a spade into an ant’s nest and turn the soil over, there’s a period of frantic activity while the ants go into emergency mode, assess the damage, and begin to rescue whatever they can from the mayhem. That is the USA in February 2025.

And make no mistake, a frantic USA spells trouble for Ukraine, for the whole of Europe (I include the UK here), and perhaps for Russia and China as well. Predicting anything at this stage is about as useful as predicting the result of a horse race without knowing the length or nature of the course or the form of any of the horses.

But what I can say, is that wider war is possible. There’s a real danger of a European conflict between Russia and the rest of Europe. There’s a chance of civil war between opposing groups within the Russian Federation, and there are also possibilities of a second civil war in the USA and/or a third world war. I fervently hope that none of these things will happen, but events rarely take account of our hopes.

We’re going take a wider look at things here because so much has changed in such a short period of time.

First, let’s just catch up on the current state of the war between the invading Russians and the defending Ukrainians.

Russian and Ukrainian war efforts

Russia is finding it more and more difficult to continue the war. Russian casualties (dead and seriously wounded) are growing close to a million. The Russian economy is in an awful state, 40% of the state budget is being spent on the war. Inflation is rampant, interest rates are extremely high, many professional people have fled the country and Ukraine is systematically destroying Russian oil pipelines, distilleries, fuel storage installations and transport infrastructure, military air bases, radar systems, training facilities and military headquarters.

The much touted Russian ‘advance’ in Ukraine has all but stalled and, in some places, has reversed to retreat. The once feared ‘second most powerful army in the world’ has been fighting against a much smaller neighbour for three years and has failed to win. Hardly an impressive display of military might! Russia has lost most of its huge military power at sea, in the air, and on land. They continue to lose between 1000 and 2000 troops every single day. They have lost almost all their tanks and armed personnel carriers and are unable to replace them as fast as they are losing them.

Ukraine on the other hand has been getting better and better at defeating Russian attacks using a combination of high tech drones, great planning and anticipation, nimble action, good training, surprise, and constant technical innovation.

They continue to defend successfully against most incoming drones and missiles. As long as they continue to receive sufficient support, they will, I believe, continue to succeed and will eventually defeat Russia. In their favour is the fact that they and some of their European allies continue to ramp up the production of both weapons and ammunition to levels sufficient to defeat demoralised Russian forces – themselves facing more and more serious shortages of such materiel.

The political climate in February/March 2025

Now we have to pause. At the end of February the situation is changing daily, even hourly at times. Rather than try to make any predictions, I think it’s better to point you to some online resources that you can check daily or weekly to keep yourselves informed in such dynamic times.

I’ve mentioned both these sources previously, but here they are again.

  • Jake Broe – Jake posts a video every day or two. He’s a retired US Air Force pilot, so he knows what he’s talking about in military matters, but he is also an astute political observer and commentator. His videos are closely packed with the latest updates, and he provides links with the evidence needed to back up the things he says. There are no wild claims here, just good reporting, intelligent comment and useful material. Jake is well worth hearing and following.
  • Silicon Curtain – Jonathan Fink posts on Silicon Curtain as well as the shorter-form Silicon Bites. Here you’ll find great comment, opinion, and some penetrating, in-depth interviews with other key players and commentators. Every single video is well worth watching.

You will learn so much from these two excellent channels, but there’s a great deal more good material online. Try this YouTube search for recent material, but don’t believe everything you see and hear. The material turned up by the search may be true or false, checked or unchecked. Use your own judgement.

If you prefer the written form, use the same search in Google or another search engine. (Copy and paste this search or a similar one… war in ukraine 2025 latest news …into any search engine.)

See also:

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