Asteroid heading our way

Image: Wikimedia

Science and technology – 4

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There is absolutely no need to panic. If you’ve heard about this and are worried, calm down and read on for the simple facts and where to go for more detail.

I imagine almost everyone will have heard about this asteroid by now. News stories have varied from rather scary to suggesting the risk is extremely tiny, so letߴs begin by setting out the most important things to know:

• The full name of the asteroid is 2024 YR4
• It will pass Earth in 2028, but will definitely miss
• It has about a 2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032
• It therefore has a 98% chance of missing entirely in 2032
• As we define its orbit better, the chance of a hit is likely to drop to zero
• If the chance of a hit becomes large, we can probably nudge it to miss

If it does become clear that the asteroid will hit Earth, here are some further important things to know:

• We already know the ground track along which it would hit
• It would most likely fall in the Atlantic Ocean
• If so, it would cause a very large tsunami
• It might fall in South America or Africa and make a crater 1.5 km wide
• It would destroy everything over a much larger area outside the crater
• We would have plenty of time to move people out of the way, either from coastal areas in the event of an ocean hit, or from the impact zone if the asteroid hit land. Clearly, many lives could be saved but it would be very costly.

See also:

Having set out those basic facts as we know them in late February 2025, I’m not going to discuss things in more detail. Instead, I’ll list some good sources for further information. These are very roughly in order of the usefulness and detail provided. Simplest at the top, more detail as you go down the list.

• BBC report – YouTube
• Odds of an impact in 2032 – Space.com
• What the asteroid looks like – Space.com
• Could hit the Moon instead – Space.com
• 2024 YR4 – Wikipedia
• Night Sky News – Dr Becky
• Odds of an asteroid strike – Fraser Cain
• What are the chances, what can we do – Scott Manley
• Stop it hitting Earth? – Scott Manley

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