Forward look – Ukraine – 2

A destroyed Russian column in Bucha (Wikimedia)

DECember 2024

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There are many sources of news, interviews, and comment covering events in Russia and Ukraine. There’s a list of some of these at the end of the article. The history of events so far is also well covered. But here I want to consider the future. What might happen next?

Russian advances on the front line

Russia is still making small gains in the east, but at huge cost in men and materiel. But Ukraine has sometimes been able to make small advances too, and I think there’s a slow trend detectable here. The to and fro actions continue to be small scale, and although the bulk of the movement is still in favour of Russia, my feeling is that it’s getting harder for them and perhaps easier for savvy, well-led and well-equipped Ukrainian forces.

One reason for this, I think, is that Ukrainian drone and missile attacks inside both the occupied territories and into Russia itself, have focused heavily on military targets. Russian ammunition dumps, airfields, critical road and rail links, arms factories, oil refining and storage and so on are seriously disrupting supplies to the Russian army. Also, Ukraine continues to devise and manufacture novel equipment including drones that can avoid jamming over the final part of their trajectory by tracking the target and striking it without manual control; mine laying robots that can destroy Russian tanks in places thought to be mine-free; and the relatively new Peklo long range jet-powered missile-drone (just three examples).

Russian air-power is floundering, Ukraine has forced Russia to move its aircraft further from the conflict zone, reducing their ability to drop glide bombs or support ground operations.

Presence of Korean forces

The Koreans still appear to be fairly ineffective. Perhaps due to a combination of language difficulties, poor training, and unsatisfactory leadership.

Donald Trump as US President Elect

Several things suggest Trump may be less helpful to Russia than we may have expected. Putin might have miscalculated by publishing nude images of Melania on Russian state TV. It’s becoming more likely that Putin will, in the end, lose the war and, indeed, power; and Donald Trump is unlikely to want to be associated with any kind of loser. If Ukraine comes out on top, Trump might like to be seen to have helped . I think this is something to watch closely going forward.

Technology

I mentioned this above. Russian industry is struggling to produce sufficient war materiel, but Ukraine has been ramping up, domestically producing ever larger quantities of shells, drones, missiles and so forth. Some of her European allies have been doing the same (Poland and the Baltic States in particular).

Russian economy

Sanctions continue to throttle Russia’s economy. Manpower shortages, the fall in the Ruble’s value, inflation and high interest rates are seeing accelerating changes. Russian economists cannot fix these issues, and the country is attempting to reduce rampant inflation while increasing the money supply. How far off is disastrous economic collapse?

Unhappy and rebellious populace

It’s quite clear that the Russian people are becoming very unhappy, particularly with the coldest part of the winter coming soon. By contrast, in Ukraine people are weary but morale and determination remain high. I mentioned this in November too, but what I didn’t mention then is the restlessness and churn amongst the wealthy business owners, politicians, and the top people in the military. We saw with Prigozhin how frustration and dissatisfaction can lead to revolt. Challenges like this will surely happen again. They will not always fail.

The assassination in Moscow

The remotely controlled explosion in Moscow that killed a Russian general and a member of his staff will have caused some anxiety among Russian leaders, both military and political. And it’s yet another blow to Putin’s prestige following the loss of control in Syria. It also makes it clear that Ukraine will not tolerate war crimes committed against their forces and are capable of acting in the very heart of Russia.

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See also:

• Inside Russia – Konstantin Samoilov
• Jake Broe
• Kyiv Independent, The
• Kyiv Post
• Silicon Curtain – Jonathan Fink
• Times Radio

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