‘Gradually, then suddenly’

What is going to happen next in Russia’s war against Ukraine? We don’t know, we’ll have to wait and see. But it’s possible to make some broad predictions even without knowing the facts.

General Ben Hodges, speaking about Vladimir Putin and the Russian Army’s current floundering against Ukraine, quoted Ernest Hemingway :

How did you go bankrupt?

Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.

Ernest Hemingway – ‘The Sun also Rises’

This is certainly true of Russia, they are wasting their soldiers, wasting their equipment, the economy is sliding out of control, and the population is now beginning to hear the very bad and disturbing news from Kursk Oblast (click the map for a larger version).

And it’s just as true for Putin personally. His moral bankruptcy in Russia and in the world at large is going to catch up with him. Abraham Lincoln’s famous words are relevant here: ‘You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.’

The truth has a way of coming out, and it often chooses very bad moments to do so!

Nobody can predict when the crash will come. But I believe General Hodges is right when he suggests that current events in Kursk are unlikely to be the only surprise Ukraine will spring on all of us, perhaps in the near future or maybe a little while later.

We’re still in the ‘gradually’ stage. But for Russia and for Putin the ‘suddenly’ phase will surely follow.

Watch the interview with Ben Hodges

The Kyiv Post interviewed Ben Hodges on 21st August 2024, answering a series of questions about Ukraine’s recent activity in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, as well as some more general questions.

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