Significant – Starship

It occurred to me that many highly significant events, situations and occasions pass us by almost unnoticed, only to burst into history and affect our lives rather later. I thought it might be fun to look at some of these, perhaps some historical examples. but also things going on today that might loom very much larger in future. I’m going to start with an article on some spaceflight technology that’s in the news precisely because it may be the start of human expansion into the Solar System.

Because I posted just five days ago on Starship‘s planned integrated test flight (IFT-4), and because of how that flight went (stunningly successfully) , now might be a good time to look at the significance of Starship in general and this test flight in particular.

Why was Starship built?

Good question. I’m glad you asked! SpaceX is by far the foremost builder and operator of space launch vehicles. So far in 2024 they’ve launched 52% of all rockets worldwide, and their share is growing. No other American rocket company and no other nation comes close!

The rationale behind their Falcon 9 was to build a reusable rocket to reduce the cost of launches. And although only the first stage and the fairings proved to be recoverable, that is still far, far more economical than building new for every launch. Falcon Heavy increased the payload capacity by using three boosters together.

The next step is to build a fully reusable system that will reduce kilogram to orbit costs by another massive factor and will make it possible to send over 100 tonnes to any destination in the Solar System. A further goal is to use this new system to build a self-sufficient city on Mars of, perhaps, a million or more people. That’s why Starship is being developed.

Integrated Flight Test Four (IFT-4)

Well, what can I say? The purpose of this flight was to go beyond IFT-3 which was a successful launch, but both the Super Heavy booster and the Starship orbiter were lost on their return through the atmosphere.

What was so remarkable about IFT-4 is that both parts of Starship survived. Super Heavy made it back to a precise location over the Gulf of Mexico (close to the launch site), and Starship made it half way around the world and also succeeded in reaching the ocean surface at essentially zero velocity and then plunged into the water.

The loss of both parts of the system was intentional and the flight provided useful data for further improvements. In the case of Super Heavy it may be possible to recover it following IFT-5, the launch tower doubles up as a catch tower, to grab the returning booster in mid-air. Starship suffered a lot of thermal damage, parts of it even melting, but despite that it made a good approach for a catch attempt to be tried later in the test programme.

Further work on both vehicles should improve things. But knowing both are capable of recovery, at least in principle, opens the way for almost certain success in the long term.

What does that imply? This new space launch system may well be the means by which we really do make spaceflight far cheaper and colonise, not just Mars, but any part of the Solar System that we wish.

Yes. Of course. We are a long, long way from colonising other planets. But for the first time it seems we may have taken a step that will enable us to at least try at some point in the future.

Steps in the future

Let’s finish by setting out possible further developments with some guesses about the timescales.

1. The next test flight, IFT-5, will probably come in late July. Any time between late June and late August seems possible, it’s really hard to say with any certainty.
2. A Superheavy booster will be successfully caught, if not on IFT-5 then certainly before the end of 2024. Once success is achieved, by mid 2025 it might be completely routine to catch both boosters and Starship spacecraft.
3. Some time in 2025 we should expect Starships to be reaching orbit with payloads (initially they will be Starlink 2 satellites).
4. We will also see the beginning of a system of tanker Starships capable of refuelling cargo and passenger Starships to travel to the Moon and Mars. This is not going to remain science fiction for very much longer.
5. Eventually the heat shield protection needed for Starship to return reliably to Earth will become safe enough that crewed flights can begin.
6. We might see the Moon Landing version Starship HLS take astronauts to the surface and return them to lunar orbit, but that’s quite some time away, maybe 2030 or later.
7. Automated Starship landers will carry equipment and supplies to the Moon and to Mars. At first they’ll remain on the surface as they will be a useful source of materials and potential habitats.
8. People will follow as safety issues are resolved, permanent settlements will become possible in both places.
9. Fifty years from now Starship and its successors will enable human exploration and settlement throughout the Solar System – on asteroids, moons of Jupiter and Mars, more or less anywhere will become possible.

See also:

• List of SpaceX launches (excl Falcon 1 and Starship) – Wikipedia
• SpaceX market share, to Nov 2023 – Unites States Internation Trade Commission (USITC)

Useful? Interesting?

If you enjoyed this article, please like, comment, and share below. My material is free to reuse, but a coffee is always welcome!